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Russell Wilson NFL Player Props, Odds Week 16: Predictions for Patriots vs. Broncos

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 24, 2023 12:15 PM EST • 3 min 28 sec read.

Russell Wilson looks to pass during the first half ahead of our Week 16 NFL predictions for Patriots vs. Chiefs
Russell Wilson looks to pass during the first half of an NFL football game between the Denver Broncos and the Detroit Lions in Detroit, Michigan USA, on Saturday, December 16, 2023. Photo by Jorge Lemus/NurPhoto

Russell Wilson leads the Denver Broncos into clash on Sunday Night Football against the New England Patriots, and we're examining our best Russell Wilson NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds at the best sportsbooks.

New England is navigating its most challenging start to a season since 1993, grappling with a 3-11 record. Last week's defeat at home marked their seventh loss at home, the most since 1992. Another loss in the upcoming game would signify the highest number of losses under the tenure of head coach Bill Belichick, highlighting the unprecedented struggle the team is facing this season.

Denver stumbled with a costly road defeat against the Detroit Lions last week, sliding to a 7-7 record and 11th in the AFC playoff rankings. Russell Wilson boasts a 3-1 record both straight up and against the spread in four encounters against teams led by Belichick.

In addition to our NFL Week 16 predictions, Patriots-Broncos prediction, Patriots-Broncos SGP, and Patriots-Broncos NFL player props, here are our best Russell Wilson NFL player prop predictions for the Patriots vs. Broncos Week 16 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Russell Wilson NFL player prop predictions for Week 16

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Russell Wilson player props

Russell Wilson Under 27.5 passing attempts (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Russell Wilson has attempted 29 or more passes in four of the last six games. However, four of his five lowest completion percentages over the last seven weeks have come in the previous four, as he has not topped 63.6% completions since Week 11. Thus, we expect head coach Sean Payton not to overload Wilson with a big passing burden so as to ease him and the offense back into rhythm. Regardless, Denver is a top-six team in rush percentage and bottom-six in pass percentage, while the Patriots defense ranks in the top half of the league in rush percentage faced per game.

This is a four-star play at the top NFL prop betting sites, as New England has been stingy against opposing quarterbacks, with just one of the last six it faced exceeding 20 fantasy points. That includes games against a healthy Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, and the red-hot Gardner Minshew, so we expect a low ceiling from the Broncos passing game.

We are making this wager at bet365, as the rest of the best sportsbooks have the Under juiced to -130 or higher.

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Russell Wilson Under 205.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This wager is an extension of our previous bet, as fewer passing attempts will likely result in fewer passing yards. Since Week 10, New England ranks 14th or better in yards per attempt, passing yards per game, and passer rating, and ranks in the top four in fewest passing touchdowns allowed. Per Sharp Football Analysis, the Patriots rank 11th in passing points allowed per attempt and have allowed passing touchdowns at a 3.3% rate (sixth-best). In addition, you know that the Broncos do not have a volume-based passing attack when Courtland Sutton, the team’s leading receiver (770 yards), does not have a 100-yard receiving game this season.

The Under on Wilson’s 1.5 passing touchdowns is too steep to back (the juice is as high as -210 at BetMGM, DraftKings, and bet365), so we instead find much better value with the Under on his passing yards at FanDuel, which offers a better number than the O/U of 203.5 yards at all competing best sports betting sites.

Russell Wilson Over 0.5 interceptions (+155 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

New England is tied for the 21st-fewest interceptions (nine) in the league, which is a big reason why we are getting generous plus-money odds for Wilson to throw a pick. However, following a stretch of five consecutive games where he did not throw an interception, Wilson has thrown four picks over the last three weeks. 

The Patriots have a stingy defense, with fewer than 21% of their opponents’ drives reaching the red zone or scoring prior (second-lowest in the league, per Sharp Football Analysis). That, and the fact that New England plays at the ninth-slowest neutral pace rate since Week 9, per FantasyPros, are big reasons why this game has the lowest projected total (34) of any game on the Week 16 slate. However, while possessions may be limited, we cannot pass up the value at bet365 for Wilson to throw an interception, especially since those odds are as low as +132 at BetRivers.

Russell Wilson player prop picks made 12/22/2023 at 12:57 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”