Steelers vs. Bills Picks, Predictions NFL Week 5: Will Buffalo Cover Huge Number?
The Buffalo Bills host the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 5 as the biggest favorites on the slate. Can they cover a huge number? Read on for our top Steelers-Bills picks.
Steelers rookie QB Kenny Pickett will make his first NFL start on Sunday. That, and Pittsburgh's 1-3 start, have the Steelers as 13.5-point underdogs in Buffalo.
The Bills started 2-0 in dominant fashion before suffering a 21-19 loss to the rival Miami Dolphins in Week 3. However, they rebounded with a statement 23-20 victory over the Baltimore Ravens last week.
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top Week 5 picks.
Here are our Steelers-Bills picks and predictions for NFL Week 5 (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Steelers vs. Bills Game Info
Date: Sunday, Oct. 9, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Weather: 59 F, 0% chance of precipitation, 19-mph winds
Steelers vs. Bills Odds
Steelers vs. Bills Odds Analysis
The Bills opened as consensus 13.5-point favorites and a number as high as -14 can be found on Sunday morning. Buffalo has drawn 77% of the ATS tickets and 67% of the handle on the spread.
The Over/Under has dropped from 47 to 45 despite 65% of the tickets and 59% of the handle being on the Over.
Steelers vs. Bills Picks
Steelers vs. Bills ATS Pick
Bills -14 (-110) ★★★
Bills coach Sean McDermott might not look like a bully, but his team certainly plays like one. Buffalo has repeatedly shown a willingness to run up the score as a big favorite since McDermott took over the team in 2017, going 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games as double-digit chalk and winning five of those games by 17-plus.
That includes a 41-7 pounding of the Tennessee Titans in Buffalo’s lone home game so far this season, a contest in which the Bills closed the game with 34 unanswered points. Once Tennessee fell behind by multiple scores and had to abandon the running game, things got ugly in a hurry as the Bills scored 24 points in less than seven minutes, culminated by an interception return for a TD.
Pittsburgh faces a similar problem in this game if it falls behind by several scores in Pickett’s first career start. Pickett threw three interceptions in just one half last week against the New York Jets, and it’s hard to see him doing much better against the Bills’ league-leading pass defense in front of a raucous crowd.
Steelers vs. Bills O/U Pick
Over 46 (-110) ★★★★
After scoring 72 points in their first two games, the Bills have managed just 42 in their last two. However, the latter two games were played in extreme weather conditions - blazing heat in Miami, followed by rain and wind in Baltimore. Buffalo’s offense should get back on track in the friendly confines of Highmark Stadium. Buffalo has scored at least 29 points in four of its last five outings on this field and topped the 40-point plateau four times since the start of last season.
While Josh Allen and the Bills might approach this total on their own against a Pittsburgh defense that badly misses star linebacker T.J. Watt, the Steelers should also be able to contribute some points. Coach Mike Tomlin has already told reporters that he doesn’t plan to treat Pickett with kid gloves, noting he’s “not grading on a curve.” Pickett’s three picks last week showed that he’s not afraid to take some chances with the ball, and he also became the first quarterback in NFL history to run for two touchdowns in his debut.
Steelers vs. Bills Prop Pick
Bills third quarter spread -3 (-115) ★★★★★
No team has been more dominant in third quarters so far this season than the Bills. Buffalo has yet to allow a single point in the third quarter, outscoring opponents by an average of 11-0 in the first 15 minutes after halftime.
Again, once Pittsburgh falls behind a couple of scores and has to throw the ball more often, that’s when things can really start to get away from the Steelers. That should be the case by the third quarter, plus the intermission will also help Buffalo make any necessary defensive adjustments against a quarterback on whom they’ve got only 30 minutes of game film to study.
Where to Bet on Steelers vs. Bills Picks
Steelers-Bills picks made 10/5/2022 at 9:10 p.m. ET
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