Steelers vs. Colts Prediction, Pick & Odds Week 15: Saturday
Saturday's NFL tripleheader features a matchup with critical AFC playoff seeding implications as the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Indianapolis Colts, and we have you covered with our Steelers vs. Colts prediction based on the best NFL odds at our best sportsbooks.
In Week 15, a crucial matchup unfolds on Saturday as the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) face the Indianapolis Colts (7-6), marking a pivotal game in the AFC playoff race. Both teams are deadlocked in pursuing the final wild-card spots and engaging in a high-stakes battle that could profoundly impact their postseason prospects.
Both squads suffered losses in Week 14, but the Steelers are enjoying a couple of extra rest days following their poor performance against the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football. Despite the Colts' unimpressive showing in their blowout loss to the Cincinnati Bengals last week, they still enter Saturday's matchup as slim home favorites in a critical spot.
In addition to our NFL Week 15 predictions and NFL Week 15 player props and to accompany our Steelers vs. Colts NFL player props and Gardner Minshew player props, here is our best Steelers vs. Colts prediction (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Steelers vs. Colts prediction: Saturday
Colts -1.5 (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
This is absolutely a must-win game for these two teams, with both clubs locked in a six-way tie for the final two wild-card spots in the AFC playoff race. And, judging by the early movement on this line, it seems folks are expecting Mike Tomlin to pull a rabbit out of a hat for the visiting Steelers.
There's only one problem with that: The Colts are the better team. And that's without accounting for the absolute mess under center for Pittsburgh.
It feels like we're getting a discount on Indianapolis after its Week 14 loss to the Bengals, who have been sneaky proficient with Jake Browning under center. Even so, the Colts had won four straight (4-0 against the spread) entering Week 14 - including a victory over the very Patriots team that exposed the Steelers' issues last week on Thursday Night Football.
Mitchell Trubisky showed his true colors in that game during his first start of the year. He was one of six starters without a big-time throw in Week 14, according to PFF, and his 64.7% adjusted completion rate was the sixth-worst of the week. It's no surprise that Pittsburgh scored fewer than 20 points for the fourth consecutive week.
The Steelers' defense has been their saving grace this campaign, but they're also the only group to make Bailey Zappe look like a competent NFL starter. His three passing TDs were a career-high, and his 115.2 passer rating was the fourth-highest from any passer in Week 14.
The Colts' defense quietly ranks 14th in DVOA, and only seven teams have scored at a higher clip (24.3 points per game) since Gardner Minshew took over in Week 6. All told, Indianapolis sits 15th in EPA/play (-0.01) across the entire season. That's a full 10 spots above the 25th-ranked Steelers (-0.07), which includes 12 weeks with regular starter Kenny Pickett under center.
Yes, Pittsburgh has enjoyed a couple of extra days to prep for this game, and maybe that's the difference on Saturday. That still requires Trubisky to come alive or the club's defense to essentially win the game on its own. Either scenario is possible, but I'd rather lay the low price at one of our best sportsbooks on the better team to take care of business at home.
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Steelers vs. Colts best odds
FanDuel (-105)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| -110 | -105 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
The market has come to a near-consensus for this game, with the Colts trading at -1.5 across our best sports betting apps. Each book is offering -110 odds both ways except for FanDuel, which is dealing -105 odds on the home favorites to cover on Saturday.
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Steelers vs. Colts odds for Saturday
Steelers vs. Colts odds analysis
After this game opened at Colts -2.5, Saturday's line has settled at -1.5 among our best sports betting sites, though only one is offering a discounted price. That's why we'd recommend placing this bet through FanDuel, which tends to be an outlier when it comes to finding value.
The total is sitting at 42 through DraftKings, Caesars, and bet365, while two of our other best sportsbooks - FanDuel and BetMGM - are trading a total of 42.5. The Steelers' offense makes the Over tough to stomach, but these defenses have also been exposed in recent weeks.
Saturday game info
- When: Saturday, Dec. 16 at 4:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
- How to watch: NFL Network
- Weather: Indoors
Steelers-Colts prediction made Thursday at 3:45 p.m. ET
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