Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay Picks, Predictions: Negative Game Script for Packers Stars
Aaron Rodgers has experienced the season from hell to this point in Green Bay. It probably won't get any better with a trip to visit Josh Allen in Buffalo. Here are our Week 8 Packers-Bills same-game parlay picks.
The Packers enter Sunday night’s battle in Buffalo carrying three straight losses for the first time since 2018. Fresh off their bye week, the Bills should have little trouble prolonging the Pack’s sour streak.
Here are my same-game parlay picks for the Week 8 Sunday night matchup between the Packers and Bills (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Packers vs. Bills Same-Game Parlay Picks
Same-Game Parlay Predictions for Packers vs. Bills
Bills -10.5 (-110) ★★★★
In most years, we would consider a primetime matchup between premium quarterbacks to be the game every football fan waits all weekend to experience. But this could be a blood bath in Buffalo.
Though the Packers have the best passing defense in the NFL this season on a yards-per-game basis, Allen and the Bills offense is too talented to be completely held in check for 60 minutes. Buffalo had the bye week to prepare for how it wants to attack this game and has been dynamite at home this season. In two home games, the Bills have compiled scoring totals of 41 and 38 points. Overall, they average 29.3 points per game, second-best in the NFL this season.
Aside from running back Aaron Jones, Rodgers hasn’t developed chemistry with any of his offensive weapons this season. Even if the Packers defense holds up to its season defensive scoring average of 20.9, it’s going to be an uphill climb for its offense to keep within range against a Bills defense that has allowed 10 total points across two home games.
Under 47.5 (-110) ★★★★★
The Packers’ league-best passing defense limiting Allen to below his standard expectations helps with the potential confidence in fading the game total. But even if Allen and the Bills blitz the Packers' sturdy defense, Green Bay’s offense will be the reason this game doesn’t have the legs to go Over.
Green Bay has averaged just 14 points per game on the road this season. None of the three opponents against whom the Packers mustered their measly scoring outputs are as good as Buffalo’s scoring defense, which has limited opponents to a league-best 13.5 points per game.
Given Buffalo’s season tendencies on defense and the regular struggles for Rodgers and the Packer offense, it would not be surprising to see Green Bay settling for punts and field goals with frequency on Sunday night. You could guarantee me that Buffalo would score 30 points and I’d still love the Under.
DraftKings offers the total at 47.5 for same-game parlays, while FanDuel has it at 46.5.
Dillon Under 24.5 rushing yards (-110) ★★★
Packers rusher A.J. Dillon garnered just 15 rushing yards on a season-low 30% of the Packers’ offensive snaps in last week’s loss in Washington. His rushing attempts also cratered down to just four, another season-low.
Buffalo has the best run defense in the NFL to this point in the season, allowing just 76.2 rushing yards per game. It’s nearly 15 yards per game better then the second-best average, San Francisco at 91.
The Bills just don’t allow much on the ground. What they do permit to the Packers on Sunday will likely go to Jones, who got the lion’s share of the workload last week. Dillon is a talented player but doesn’t project for high involvement in Sunday’s negative game script. His total at FanDuel is 25.5, but we’re taking the parlay to DraftKings due to a massive improvement on the combined odds (+575 vs. +434) and the more favorable line on the game total going Under.
Combined Odds: Bills -10.5 (-110) + Under 47.5 (-110) + Dillon Under 24.5 Rushing Yards (+110) = +575
Where to Bet on Packers-Bills Picks
Packers-Bills picks made 10/30/2022 at 1 p.m. ET.
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