Super Bowl Predictions & Picks: Chiefs, Falcons Lead Best Bets to Win Super Bowl 59
We're already one-third through the 2024 NFL regular season, and the Kansas City Chiefs still lead our 2025 Super Bowl predictions after a 5-0 start to their title defense.
The Chiefs have been far from perfect en route to those five wins, four of which were decided in the final minute. But our Super Bowl betting sites still covet the two-time reigning champions after they beat the San Francisco 49ers in last year's Big Game.
Those two teams remain atop the latest Super Bowl odds, though I have my eyes on two other compelling long shots as part of my updated Super Bowl predictions.
Who is predicted to win the Super Bowl?
| Team | Odds (BetMGM) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | +475 | 17.39% | $47.50 |
| 49ers | +700 | 12.50% | $70 |
| Ravens | +700 | 12.50% | $70 |
| Lions | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Texans | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Bills | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Vikings | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Eagles | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
To the surprise of absolutely nobody, the Chiefs remain the Super Bowl favorites across our best sportsbooks after an unblemished start to the 2024 campaign.
It's telling that those odds have hardly moved in either direction since kickoff, when Kansas City was priced around +575 before moving to +500 after Week 2.
That's still the best price for this group over at bet365, where a $10 bet would return a $50 profit if the Chiefs hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the third straight season.
Best bet: Chiefs (+500)
Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. So who's the fool betting against a third straight championship for Kansas City?
I think we can all admit that the first six weeks could have gone better for the Chiefs. That's one reason I actually have confidence in this group down the stretch, as their C+ is still good enough to post one of two undefeated starts leaguewide.
This group also looks better than what we saw for most of the regular season last year, when Andy Reid and Co. lulled us to sleep before waking up in time for the playoffs ... which is an archetypal script for the modern sports dynasty.
The only concern I have at this point is whether the injuries to Marquise Brown (shoulder), Rashee Rice (knee), and Isiah Pacheco (fibula) - all of whom could be out for the year - will be too much for this offense to overcome in the playoffs.
Then I remember that Patrick Mahomes is the one running the show, and Steve Spagnuolo's defenses always save their best for the postseason. That's why I'd still wager that the Chiefs will be the ones marching through the streets of New Orleans in February.
Ask yourself this: does Kansas City have a 17% chance (or better) of another Super Bowl victory after winning two straight and three of the last five? If so, this is still an easy bet to make.
Best odds: +500 via bet365 | Implied probability: 16.67%
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Expert Super Bowl picks
Prediction: Falcons to win the NFC (+1200)
I've been pounding the table for the Falcons since February, when I bet on them to win the Super Bowl at 50/1 odds.
Those odds have been cut in half at some of our best sports betting apps after a 4-2 start that includes a 22-17 loss to the Chiefs on one of the more controversial finishes of the early 2024 NFL season.
QB Kirk Cousins has earned every penny of his $180 million deal with three game-winning drives in six weeks (nobody else has more than one), and he's surrounded by a talent-rich roster littered with former first-round picks.
This team hasn't been perfect, but you could say that about every NFC hopeful, many of which are dealing with serious injuries or lack the upside that Atlanta features on both sides - especially at these longer odds.
Right now, a $10 bet at these +1200 odds via Caesars would return a $120 profit if the Falcons can navigate a messy conference full of flawed contenders and represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Best odds: +1200 via Caesars | Implied probability: 7.69%
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Prediction: Bengals to win the Super Bowl (+3000)
Obviously, I'm high on the Chiefs to win it all, so this is strictly a value play at these long odds. And boy, what a value it is.
If you've read anything I've written about the NFL over the last month, you know how I feel about the Bengals, who led the league in scoring offense (32.5 PPG) from Week 2 through Week 5 before their defense made a statement on Sunday Night Football in a 17-10 win over the New York Giants.
It hasn't been the prettiest start, but the Bengals entered the year among the Super Bowl favorites and still feature one of the most explosive offenses in football with a proven defensive play-caller in Lou Anarumo.
Cincinnati has famously started slow under Zac Taylor before catching fire late, and Joe Burrow remains the only active quarterback to beat Mahomes in the postseason.
I've already bet on the Bengals twice this season - at +2600 during the Ravens loss and again at +4000 ahead of last week's win - and I'd be shocked if we see a better value all season long on a team that we know can make a deep run. A $10 bet at BetMGM would profit $300 if that happens.
Best odds: +3000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 3.23%
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Super Bowl odds: AFC vs. NFC
Super Bowl conference winner odds via DraftKings.
| Market | AFC | NFC |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -105 | -115 |
There's a reason I have the Chiefs and Bengals to win the Super Bowl but the Falcons to win the conference - the AFC is simply the better conference.
The Conference of Quarterbacks™ has won seven of the last 10 Super Bowls, including two straight, and four of the six consensus title favorites hail from the AFC entering Week 7.
That obviously includes the two-time reigning champion Chiefs, who are my pick to win it all. If they don't, my money is on the Ravens, Texans, Bills, or Bengals stopping their path as opposed to Kansas City losing in the Big Game.
I'd be surprised if one of those teams is not the Super Bowl favorite in February, so there's value in betting the AFC if you don't mind having your money tied up for a few months on a straight bet.
Clearly, our best NFL betting sites disagree with that assessment. While both sides are priced at -110 odds at some shops, you can bet the AFC at -105 odds via DraftKings just weeks after that side was dealing as the -115 favorite.
Given the wide-open nature of the NFC, I'm leaning into chaos on that side of the bracket. I'm especially compelled by the exact matchup odds at DraftKings of the Chiefs beating the Falcons (+7500) or the Falcons beating the Chiefs (+11000).
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Super Bowl FAQs
Who won the Super Bowl last year?
The Kansas City Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49ers, 25-22, to win the 2024 Super Bowl. It marked the second straight Super Bowl victory for the Chiefs, who have won three times in Patrick Mahomes' six years as a starting quarterback.
Who is predicted to win the Super Bowl?
The Chiefs are predicted to win the Super Bowl with odds as high as +500 to win a third straight Lombardi Trophy. Those odds represent a 16.67% chance that the Chiefs pull off the first three-peat in the Super Bowl era (since 1967).
Who is predicted to play in the Super Bowl?
The Chiefs and 49ers are predicted to meet in Super Bowl 59 after facing off twice in the last five years in the Super Bowl. Both teams are the early favorites to win their respective conferences with the shortest title odds across our best sportsbooks.
Has any team ever won three straight Super Bowls?
No team has ever won the Super Bowl in three consecutive seasons. Only two NFL teams have won three straight titles - the Green Bay Packers did so from 1929-31 and 1965-67 - but no team has done so in the Super Bowl era.
Super Bowl betting odds pages
Don't miss our all of our other NFL futures.
Here are our best Super Bowl betting sites:
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- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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