2025 Super Bowl Predictions & Picks: Chiefs, Vikings Lead Our Best Bets to Win Super Bowl 59
For the first time since last Christmas, the Kansas City Chiefs lost a game on Sunday. But they still lead my 2025 Super Bowl predictions as we look ahead to the final seven weeks of the 2024 NFL regular season.
The Chiefs still own the second-shortest odds across our Super Bowl betting sites amid a 9-1 start to the season following two consecutive championships. And I'm still buying their postseason potential as the likely No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Kansas City isn't the only team with Super Bowl odds worth betting on, though, as I break down my favorite value bets and long shots in my updated Super Bowl predictions.
Who is predicted to win the Super Bowl?
| Team | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | +350 | 22.22% | $35 |
| Chiefs | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| Bills | +650 | 13.33% | $65 |
| Eagles | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| Ravens | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| 49ers | +1700 | 5.56% | $170 |
| Packers | +1900 | 5.00% | $190 |
| Texans | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Steelers | +2100 | 4.55% | $210 |
| Vikings | +2100 | 4.55% | $210 |
| Chargers | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
For the first time all season (and all time), the Lions are the favorites to win the Super Bowl. What a world we live in.
Detroit left our best sportsbooks no choice after its 52-6 blowout victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. That marked the third win of at least 38 points in the last six weeks for the Lions, who have also vanquished the Vikings, Packers, and Texans in that stretch.
That kicked Kansas City into an unfamiliar spot of second fiddle in the latest title odds ahead of the Bills, Eagles, and Ravens - the only other teams priced at shorter than +1700 odds.
Best bet: Chiefs (+500)
Let's just be honest about what is happening right now: the Chiefs are sleepwalking through the regular season after winning two straight titles.
The evidence is clear to see. Kansas City has won just one game by more than 10 points, and virtually every other win has come within the final minute. Yet it keeps winning those games, anyway, as this team clearly knows how to turn it on when it matters most.
That's what we saw last season, when the Chiefs looked vulnerable in the regular season before transforming into an unstoppable force in the postseason. Are we really going to fall for this another time?
Yes, this team has suffered myriad injuries over the first 11 weeks, though reinforcements are coming soon while in-season acquisition DeAndre Hopkins clearly hasn't caught up to what we know he can be when he's clicking.
In the end, I'm not going to bet against Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Steve Spagnuolo in January and February. I've done it before, and I'm poorer for doing so.
Ask yourself this: does Kansas City have a 17% chance (or better) of another Super Bowl victory after winning two straight and three of the last five? If so, this is still an easy bet to make at FanDuel, where a winning $10 bet would profit $50.
Best odds: +500 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 16.67%
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Expert Super Bowl picks
Prediction: Vikings to win the NFC (+1000)
I've had the Falcons in this spot for much of the season, and I still don't mind taking a shot on them at +3000 odds via BetMGM in case they turn things around.
Yet I'm even more intrigued (and puzzled) by these long-shot odds on the Vikings, who not long ago were considered the creme de la creme in the NFC.
Sure, Minnesota hasn't sustained what was quite literally a perfect start, but it still ranks sixth in net EPA per play (+0.17) with the best defense in the league by any advanced metric you choose.
Oh, and it features one of the best receivers of all time in Justin Jefferson with one of the best play-calling tandems in the NFL with Kevin O'Connell calling the shots on offense and Brian Flores dialing up chaos on defense.
By my money, there isn't a team in the NFL with a bigger misalignment between their title odds and their actual path to the Super Bowl - especially given how wide open the NFC looks beyond the favored Lions, whom Minnesota nearly beat already.
If the Vikings can navigate this lesser conference and book its ticket to New Orleans for the Super Bowl, a $10 bet at BetMGM would return a $100 profit.
Best odds: +1000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 9.09%
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Prediction: Chargers to win the Super Bowl (+2800)
Before the season began, I highlighted the Chargers as a potential long shot worth backing on the strength of two individuals: Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh.
Once the season started, I'll admit that I lost faith in this group after a quiet offseason and relatively zero noise about this team's title trajectory. Three months later, though, I'm starting to buy the hype.
How could you not with the way this team is playing on both sides of the ball? Herbert is playing like the MVP-caliber passer that we've known him to be for years, and this defense ranks behind only the Vikings in EPA/play allowed (-0.14).
Los Angeles ranks eighth in net EPA/play (+0.13) with a 93% chance to make the playoffs, per DVOA, but it remains tied for the 10th-shortest Super Bowl odds at bet365 with a $10 bet returning a $280 profit if the Bolts win it all.
We've already seen Harbaugh take a team to the Super Bowl in short order, and he didn't have the quarterback play - or the defense - that we're seeing right now. That's why I love this long-shot value as a hedge in case the Chiefs don't pull it off.
Best odds: +2800 via bet365 | Implied probability: 3.45%
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Super Bowl odds: AFC vs. NFC
Super Bowl conference winner odds via DraftKings.
| Market | AFC | NFC |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -120 | -105 |
There's a reason I have the Chiefs and Chargers to win the Super Bowl but the Vikings to win the NFC - the AFC is simply the better conference.
The Conference of Quarterbacks™ has won seven of the last 10 Super Bowls, including two straight, and three of the five consensus title favorites hail from the AFC entering Week 12.
That obviously includes the two-time reigning champion Chiefs, who are my pick to win it all. If they don't, my money is on the Ravens, Bills, or Chargers stopping their path as opposed to Kansas City losing in the Big Game.
I'd be surprised if one of those teams is not the Super Bowl favorite in February, so there's value in betting the AFC if you don't mind having your money tied up for a few months on a straight bet.
Our best NFL betting sites agree with that assessment, pricing the AFC as the early -120 favorite after dealing the NFC as the slim front-runner a few weeks ago. Given the wide-open nature of the NFC, I'm leaning into chaos on that side of the bracket.
I'm intrigued by the exact matchup odds at DraftKings of the Chiefs beating the Vikings (+2200) or the Vikings beating the Chiefs (+2800), though I'd still rather just bet one of those teams straight up.
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Super Bowl FAQs
Who won the Super Bowl last year?
The Kansas City Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49ers, 25-22, to win the 2024 Super Bowl. It marked the second straight Super Bowl victory for the Chiefs, who have won three times in Patrick Mahomes' six years as a starting quarterback.
Who is predicted to win the Super Bowl?
The Lions are predicted to win the Super Bowl with odds as high as +400 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February. Those odds represent a 20% chance that Detroit wins the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.
Who is predicted to play in the Super Bowl?
The Lions and Chiefs are predicted to meet in Super Bowl 59. Kansas City has won the Super Bowl in back-to-back seasons, while Detroit has never played in the Big Game after losing in last year's NFC Championship.
Has any team ever won three straight Super Bowls?
No team has ever won the Super Bowl in three consecutive seasons. Only two NFL teams have won three straight titles - the Green Bay Packers did so from 1929-31 and 1965-67 - but no team has done so in the Super Bowl era.
Super Bowl betting odds pages
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