Best Super Bowl Trends: How to Bet Chiefs vs. Eagles in Super Bowl 2025

Ahead of Chiefs vs. Eagles in Super Bowl 2025, we're breaking down the best Super Bowl trends to help you bet on the Big Game on Sunday (6:30 p.m. ET, FOX).

This year's Super Bowl matchup is expected to draw $1.4 billions in wagers, so we're compiling the best Super Bowl betting trends and history before the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles meet at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

Super Bowl trends: Point spread

• Kansas City has a 9-10 record against the spread (ATS) this season
• Philadelphia has a 13-7 record ATS this season
• The Chiefs are 4-2 ATS in the Super Bowl
• The Eagles are 2-2 ATS in the Super Bowl

How to bet these trends

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and there are trends listed above that support picking both teams.

For example, Philadelphia bettors might choose to cherry-pick recent trends when citing why they believe the Eagles will win. However, Kansas City backers will look at patterns over time, where favorites cover more often than not in the Big Game, albeit slightly.

It's important to remember that a point spread this slim is rather insignificant when discussing ATS records. If the line closes at Kansas City -1.5, it'll be tied for the second-lowest Big Game spread ever behind Super Bowls 7 and 16 (Miami and San Francisco -1).

It'll also be the third instance since 2020 where the Chiefs are involved in a game with such a tight spread. They are 2-0 ATS and SU in the previous matchups, including a win over the Eagles as the underdog in Super Bowl 57.

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Super Bowl trends: Over/Under

• Kansas City matchups have gone Under 11 times in 19 games this season
• Philadelphia matchups have gone Under 11 times in 20 games this season
• Kansas City has leaned Under at a 3-2 clip in Chiefs Super Bowl history*
• Philadelphia has gone Over and Under twice through four games in Eagles Super Bowl history

*Sportsbooks did not have a set total for Super Bowl 1, which involved Kansas City.

How to bet these trends

This is another example of a scenario in which we will find out whether bettors lean toward recent trends or historical patterns. So far, 77% of the action at BetMGM is on the Over, so the public is favoring the former.

This game will feature two of the NFL's top four scoring defenses, but it's important to remember what happened at Super Bowl 57. The Chiefs and Eagles combined to go Over 51.5 quite easily with 73 combined points. Both franchises have gone Over in their last two appearances in the Big Game, as well.

The best price on the Over can be found on DraftKings, where Over 48.5 is listed at standard juice (-110). Under bettors can get Under 49 at Caesars for -110.

Super Bowl trends: Who will win Super Bowl 2025?

• Kansas City is 4-2 SU in the Super Bowl, 1-0 in New Orleans
• Philadelphia is 1-3 SU in the Super Bowl, 0-1 in New Orleans
• The AFC, NFC have five wins apiece in New Orleans; the AFC is 2-0 in recent years
• The designated visitors are 7-3 in New Orleans
• No team has ever won three consecutive Super Bowls
• Previous winners are 4-0 in Super Bowl rematches when coaches meet again

How to bet these trends

The best way to bet on these trends depends on which side of the aisle you're on.

If you're lining up to ride the trends and back Patrick Mahomes, the best strategy is to wait. Public and sharp money has come in on Philadelphia in the days leading up to the Big Game, so it's possible Kansas City bettors could get a better price closer to kickoff.

However, if you're in the business of zigging where others zag, and you want to fade the historical patterns, lock in your Eagles bets while you can guarantee yourself the best price. All trends point toward a Chiefs victory, but Saquon Barkley and Co. inspire confidence in those looking for an edge in the underdogs.

Historical Super Bowl trends & notes

Historical note: Sportsbooks did not have a set total for Super Bowl 1, and Super Bowl 49's line was a pick 'em. Those outliers are the reason for some spread or total trends being off by one number.

• Super Bowl winners are 49-7-2 against the spread (ATS)
• Favorites are 28-27-2 ATS in Super Bowl betting history
• Favorites are 7-16 ATS since 2000
• Underdogs are 6-4 straight up in the last 10 games dating back to 2014
• Favorites are 5-4-1 ATS in New Orleans Super Bowl history
• Favorites are 10-9-2 ATS in closed-roof stadiums
• The Over has a slight edge all-time over the Under, 29-28
• The Over has cashed in 12 of 22 indoor Super Bowls
• The Over has hit in the last two Super Bowls after a streak of four straight Unders from 2019 to 2022

How to bet these trends

Whereas the Super Bowl 59 trends foreshadowed a Kansas City victory, the historical trends tell the tale of the spoiler. Underdogs have won six of the last 10 Super Bowls straight up, and one more victory draws them level with favorites against the spread all-time.

This is music to Philadelphia fans' ears as they look for any edge over the mighty Mahomes in this spot. The favorites' struggles date back to 2000, as they are 7-16 ATS in that span. No matter the winner, history tells us to play the spread with the patterns being as close to even as possible without reaching .500.

As for the total, those margins are also razor thin, but indoor Super Bowls often lead to an increase in scoring. Closed-roof games have an average of 47.7 points - compared to 42.3 points outdoors - with only three of the last 10 indoor games going Under.

Chiefs vs. Eagles trends & notes

• Mahomes is a perfect 8-0 ATS and SU in his NFL playoff career as a favorite of less than a field goal or as an underdog.
• Mahomes is 13-0 in his career playing inside a dome and 18-1 indoors (including retractable roofs) overall.
• Vic Fangio-led defenses have faced the Chiefs with Mahomes eight times - they are 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS in those games. Mahomes has 10 touchdowns and two interceptions in those games.
• 16 of the past 20 Super Bowl winners were wearing white.
• No team has lost to Kirk Cousins and won the Super Bowl in the same season.
• The Eagles are 5-0 on artificial turf this season, allowing a league-low 11.6 points per game.
• Teams with a first-round bye are 0-10 ATS and 1-8 SU against opponents that played on Wild Card Weekend. The only team to win was the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2009.

Chiefs vs. Eagles odds

Here are the latest NFL odds for Super Bowl 2025 from our best NFL betting sites.

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