Tonight's Texans vs. Cowboys Prediction, Monday Night Football Picks & Odds
The Dallas Cowboys have lost four in a row and all four contests at AT&T Stadium this season, the location for tonight's prime-time MNF clash against the Houston Texans.
Dallas, off to its worst start since 2020, enters the game as either 7 or 7.5-point underdogs, according to the Monday Night Football odds. Meanwhile, the Texans must be champing at the bit to get back on the field after coughing up a 16-point halftime lead to the irrepressible Detroit Lions.
Our Texans vs. Cowboys prediction expects Dallas to cover at home despite Cooper Rush remaining under center. Kickoff from AT&T Stadium in Arlington is set for 8:15 p.m. ET, airing on ABC and ESPN.
The below prediction is part of our MNF coverage, including the C.J. Stroud MNF player prop bets and Texans vs. Cowboys MNF prop bets.
Updated Texans vs. Cowboys betting info
There has been no movement in the spread in the lead-up to tonight's game, with Houston remaining as 7 or 7.5-point favorites. The total, which opened at 42.5, now sits at 41.5 at BetMGM.
The Cowboys opened at +260 on the moneyline at BetMGM and are now trading at +280. Meanwhile, 52% of the bets and 47% of the money is on Dallas.
CeeDee Lamb to amass Over 59.5 rushing yards is one of the most-bet player props at BetMGM. Here's our take on some Lamb MNF player prop bets.
Our Esten McLaren analyzed a few of the best anytime touchdown scorer predictions and picks for MNF.
Best Texans vs. Cowboys picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Cowboys +7.5 (-118 via FanDuel) vs. Texans ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Joe Mixon to score the first touchdown (+325 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Texans vs. Cowboys against the spread prediction: Monday Night Football
Cowboys to cover the spread: +7.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -118 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.13%
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Not much went right for the Cowboys in their 34-6 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last week. However, the Dallas pass rush is something it can ride to success against a weak Texans offensive line.
The Cowboys pressured Jalen Hurts on a career-high 64.3% of his dropbacks last week. And the team received an immediate boost from Micah Parsons, who had five quarterback pressures in his first game back from an ankle injury.
Meanwhile, Houston’s offensive line has allowed a 30.2% pressure rate when C.J. Stroud is under center, making him the third-most pressured quarterback in the league.
Turnover regression looming?
A big concern for Cowboys backers is their propensity for turning the ball over.
Dallas has two games with five or more giveaways this season, while the Texans defense has a league-high 15 takeaways since Week 6, which are the most in the NFL in that span. However, Houston had just three takeaways over the first five weeks of the season, so regression could be looming.
When in doubt, go contrarian
There are few more contrarian plays than picking the Cowboys to cover the spread in Week 11. That is not surprising considering three of Dallas’ four home losses were by more than 24 points this season, and the Cowboys have allowed 34.5 points per game during their current four-game losing streak.
The reason for optimism is that underdogs were hugely successful going 11-3 ATS in Week 10. In addition, before last week’s debacle, Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush was 5-1 SU and ATS in six career starts.
This is the first time since 2001 that Dallas projects to kick off as a touchdown or more home underdog in consecutive games. But I look at the 2/1 betting splits in favor of the Texans and cannot help but prefer to be on the contrarian side, rooting for a Cowboys cover just like our best sports betting sites will.
FanDuel is the only top sports betting site offering Dallas +7.5, as all others are at +7. Thus, getting the extra half-point of value is well worth the -118 juice. This spread has grown considerably so we have an opportunity to middle after my Texans vs. Cowboys early picks.
Texans vs. Cowboys player prop
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Joe Mixon to score the first touchdown (+325) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +325 via Caesars | Implied probability: 23.53%
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Texans running back Joe Mixon has as high as a 66.67% implied probability to score a touchdown based on Caesars’ -200 anytime touchdown odds. Thus, given that the Cowboys have allowed the first touchdown in four of their last five games, it makes sense to swing for the fences a bit with this generous offering from the same sportsbook.
Mixon recorded five consecutive games with 90-plus scrimmage yards and a touchdown, and he is the RB2 in fantasy football since Week 6. Our Phil Wood also expects a big day for Mixon with his Texans vs. Cowboys MNF prop bets, and my C.J. Stroud MNF player props lend to Mixon finding pay dirt more than his QB.
The Texans coaching staff will likely look to get Mixon going after he averaged a season-low 1.8 yards per rush last week. He gets a tasty matchup against a Cowboys defense that ranks 27th against the run, 28th in run defense DVOA, and has allowed a top-12 fantasy running back in four of the last five games.
There is a big 50-cent gap between Caesars’ +325 odds and the +275 offered at bet365 for this wager. If Mixon is the first player to find the end zone, my $10 winning wager would net $32.50 in profits, according to our betting calculators.
Brenden Schaeffer is also locking in on Mixon as part of his Texans vs. Cowboys parlay picks.
Texans vs. Cowboys odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Monday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Texans vs. Cowboys
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
- How to watch: ESPN/ABC
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Texans -7 (-115 via BetMGM)
NFL betting odds pages
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