Texans vs. Jets Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for TNF Week 9

The Jets hopes of reaching the playoffs took a major blow last week, and they need a victory over the visiting Texans on TNF in Week 9 to right the ship before its too late.

Philip Wood

Last updated: October 28, 2024 10:40 AM EDT • 5 min read

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers on the field as we make our best Texans vs. Jets early picks for Thursday Night Football. — New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers on the field against the New England Patriots. Photo by: David Butler II-Imagn Images.

Oddsmakers believe that the Thursday Night Football game between the 6-2 Houston Texans and 2-6 New York Jets is a toss-up.

We look at the best Texans vs. Jets early picks and odds as the two teams prepare to meet at 8:15 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., for a Thursday Night Football showdown on Prime Video. Despite losing five consecutive games, the Jets aren’t big underdogs in this game. One of our best sportsbooks even lists this game as a pick 'em.

Five of the Texans’ six wins this season have been by five or fewer points, including last week’s victory over the Indianapolis Colts. But with CJ Stroud and Joe Mixon both playing at such a high level, can the Jets’ offense really keep up? We dig into that question as part of our Week 9 NFL predictions.

My early Texans vs. Jets prediction: Jets moneyline

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Jets moneyline

Best odds: -102 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 50.49%

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While the Texans are 5-1 in close games, the Jets are just 1-4 in such contests. While these records would indicate that the Texans have an advantage in a close contest, they also show that the Texans likely aren’t as good as their record suggests, and the Jets likely aren’t as bad as theirs.

Defensively, the Texans are allowing the second-fewest yards per game in the league, and the Jets are allowing the fourth-fewest. Both teams also rank in the top 15 in points allowed per game. The defenses should keep this game low-scoring, and in a home primetime game with their season on the line, that gives the advantage to the Jets.

A majority (68%) of early bettors are backing the Texans to cover against the spread in this game, and yet, the spread has moved toward the Jets at each of our best sports betting apps. There’s something fishy about this game. In Week 8’s Thursday Night game, the Minnesota Vikings saw similar support from the public on the road against the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams ended up winning that game by 10.

Texans bettors: be warned.

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Texans vs. Jets live odds

See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week 9 game.

Moneyline

Texans best odds: -108 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.92%
Jets best odds: -102 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 50.49%

Early support suggests that this number should move in favor of the Texans. However, oddsmakers have subverted public expectations, and the number is moving in favor of the Jets. If the public continues to back the Texans at such a high rate, then they will likely go off at -120 or better. But there will need to be a lot of support, as early indicators point to oddsmakers willingly baiting the public into taking a favorable number for the Texans.

Spread

Texans best odds: Pick 'em (-110) via Caesars
Jets best odds: +1 (-110) via DraftKings

No matter how much the public supports the Texans, this spread won’t hit a key number unless there is an unexpected injury announced before Thursday night’s game. So far, early betting heavily favors the Texans, but the spread has either not moved or shifted in favor of the Jets. This spread seems destined to remain between a pick 'em and 1.5 all week.

Over/Under

Over best odds: 42.5 (-110) via BetMGM
Under best odds: 43.5 (-110) via DraftKings

The Jets have scored 22 or fewer points in five consecutive games, and they haven’t scored more than 24 in a single game this season. Despite that, the public is favoring the Over early. Perhaps it’s because they have faith in the Texans' offense, but even they have only scored more than 24 points twice this year.

As more bettors dive into this game, the Under should see support. This total won’t move much, but if you’re on the Under, the 43.5 for -110 at DraftKings may be the best you get all week.

How to watch Texans vs. Jets

When: Thursday, Oct. 31
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
How to watch: Prime Video
Weather: 72 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 11 mph SW
Favorite: Pick 'em (-110 via Caesars)

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Written By:
Philip Wood

Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.