Tonight's Texans vs. Jets Prediction, TNF Picks & Odds
The New York Jets enter Thursday Night Football against the Houston Texans on the back of five straight losses. However, with a 10-3 ATS record as a favorite in Thursday games, Aaron Rodgers loves playing under the bright prime-time lights.
The Texans are 6-2 but have a 3-5 ATS record, primarily thanks to being notable favorites in most games.
According to the Thursday Night Football odds, the Jets enter tonight's game as underdogs. The line has moved in the Jets' favor at BetMGM, from opening odds of +1 at open to -2.5 hours before kickoff.
Our Jets vs. Texans prediction expects Gang Green to end their losing streak, buying into the notion that the oddsmakers favor the correct team.
Kickoff from East Rutherford, N.J., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
The below picks are part of our TNF coverage, including our Texans vs. Jets TNF props, Texans vs. Jets parlay picks, C.J. Stroud TNF player props, Rodgers TNF player props, and anytime touchdown scorer predictions.
Best Texans vs. Jets picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Jets -1.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Texans ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Joe Mixon Under 81.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Texans vs. Jets against the spread prediction: Thursday Night Football
Jets to cover the spread: -1.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
Texans injuries are piling up
Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has already been without wide receiver Nico Collins for multiple weeks, and now he will not have Stefon Diggs’ services, as he suffered a torn ACL in Week 8 and is out for the season.
In three weeks without Collins, Stroud has finished with 6.2, 4.1, and 7.7 yards per attempt, but threw for 8.6 yards per attempt or better in the two weeks prior to his injury.
Stroud has averaged 8.1 yards per attempt and a 67.5% completion rate in 537 dropbacks with Collins on the field per Sharp Football Analysis. His absence, along with Diggs being sidelined, lowers Houston’s offensive ceiling considerably.
Stroud will be running for his life
The Jets are 0-3 and have allowed 28.3 points per game since firing head coach Robert Saleh. But I expect New York’s pass rush to be the difference in this game.
Entering last week’s game against the New England Patriots, the Jets pressured opposing quarterbacks on 40.1% of dropbacks (fifth). And when they generated pressure, they allowed a 42.6% completion rate (fifth) and 5.6 yards per attempt (11th).
Stroud faced a Colts defense that had one of the worst pass rush grades in the league last week, but he was still pressured on 10 dropbacks and has now been pressured on 35% of dropbacks this season (ranks 29th). Philip Wood's Texans vs. Jets TNF player props also think that Stroud will be limited in the passing game.
Jets’ positive regression in close games
New York has lost five consecutive games, but four of those have been by one score. Meanwhile, Houston has won four games by four or fewer points, the most in the league.
At some point, the ball has to start bouncing the other way, and I expect it to be this week with the Texans as the road team. Houston is just 2-2 away from home with a -7 point differential, compared to being 4-0 at home for its best home start since 2016.
Several of our best sports betting apps have the Jets as two-point favorites, while FanDuel is the only one offering -1.5 at the standard -110 juice.
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Texans vs. Jets player prop
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Joe Mixon Under 81.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Mixon’s player props will garner a lot of attention given that Houston’s passing attack is compromised this week. But the Texans’ dearth of perimeter threats is why I like Mixon to be bottled up, as the Jets do not have to respect the passing game as much.
This is a contrarian play, as Mixon is the first player ever with 100-plus rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in four of the first five games with a team. But playing on a short week does not usually lead to a lot of volume, as no running back has topped 14 carries in four of the last five Thursday Night Football matchups.
Under backers should take advantage of a great number at FanDuel, as Mixon’s O/U is as low as 77.5 at several of our top sports betting sites.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
Texans vs. Jets odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Texans vs. Jets
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: 72 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph SW
- Favorite: Jets -1.5 (-120 via BetMGM)
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