Top Expert Betting Picks for NFL Week 17

Read on for our NFL Week 17 expert picks for the best against the spread and Over/Under bets.

The penultimate week of the NFL's regular season is here and there is still plenty to play for with first-round byes, two NFC wild-card spots, and six of seven AFC playoff positions still up for grabs.

Here's a look at the top ATS and O/U picks for Week 17 from our team of NFL betting experts (odds via BetMGM, Caesars, Circa, DraftKings, PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Top NFL Week 17 Expert Picks

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SEE ALSO: Top Expert NFL Prop Picks for Week 17

Top NFL Week 17 ATS Picks

Titans -3 (-115 via BetMGM)

I'd give this one six stars if I were allowed to. The Dolphins' seven-game winning streak couldn't be any more fraudulent. Miami took out Houston, the Jets, the Panthers, the Giants, the Jets again, and then the Saints with Ian Book starting at quarterback. There was an impressive win over the Ravens mixed in there, but Baltimore has been anything but sturdy this season.

The Dolphins are 24th in yards per attempt this year and Tua Tagovailoa is nearly last place in average intended air yards. This is not a particularly imposing passing attack, and Tennessee is ranked 10th in defensive DVOA and 10th against the pass. This will be the best secondary Tua has faced - by far - in the last seven games. It will not go well. - Ducey

Chargers -5.5 (-110 via Caesars)

We won in this space in Week 16 fading the Broncos in Las Vegas and will go right back to that strategy for the same reason: Drew Lock will be the team’s starting quarterback again. Teddy Bridgewater remains in concussion protocols and apparently will not be ready by Sunday. Lock threw for just 153 yards in the 17-13 loss to the Raiders. He's just not an NFL starter.

The Broncos aren't officially eliminated from the playoffs but basically are, so I wonder about their motivation level. The wildly inconsistent Chargers have to have this for their playoff hopes and should get back a ton of guys who missed last week's embarrassing loss to Houston from the COVID list, led by running back Austin Ekeler. The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their past five road games. The Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their past seven versus the AFC West. - Jordan

Eagles -3.5 (-105 via DraftKings)

The safest play of the week belongs to the Philadelphia Eagles. Just two weeks removed from a 10-point win against Washington, the Eagles have won five of their last six games as they're back in the playoff race. Everything has changed for the franchise since it began running the ball more and taking pressure off Jalen Hurts.

Washington has been trending the other way with three straight losses. COVID has decimated their roster and therefore any momentum created with the four-game win streak that now feels forever ago. The Eagles will replicate their usual strategy of dominating the trenches en route to a cover and big win. - Lipka

Cardinals +6.5 (-114 via Circa)

The Cowboys are one of the best ATS outfits in the league this season with a 12-3 spread record, but this is a great spot to fade Dallas.

The whole world watched as Dallas eviscerated Washington last Sunday night and Arizona dropped its third game in a row in a high-profile Christmas night matchup. So, naturally, the Cowboys are favored by nearly a touchdown against the Cardinals.

Three of Arizona's five losses this season have come by six points or less. Though both teams have already clinched playoff spots, Dallas already has the NFC East sewn up while Arizona can still regain the NFC West lead. Look for the Cardinals, the more desperate club, to rebound as they seek a much-needed victory. - McClymont

Top NFL Week 17 O/U Picks

Jaguars-Patriots Under 41.5 (-110 via PointsBet)

The Patriots' rushing defense is their biggest weakness and, even without James Robinson, it seems very likely the Jaguars will try to exploit that with a heavy dose of the run. On the other hand, Jacksonville has been awful on defense, failing to stop the run as well. New England ranks sixth in run-play rate and should do nothing but run the ball here.

With the script calling for a ton of rushing, I think the Under is a safe play here. I'm not sure the Jaguars can muster up any more than 10 points here, and the Patriots should kill the clock for the entire second half considering they're 24th in seconds per play, 26th in pace in the second half, and 29th in pace when up by seven or more. This one will be a slow-moving game. - Ducey

Raiders-Colts Under 45 points (-110 via Caesars)

A huge matchup in the AFC playoff race as both the Raiders and Colts control their playoff destiny. I personally don't bet on NFL games until about the last possible second, but obviously we can't post pick that late so I'm basing this Under play on the likelihood that Colts quarterback Carson Wentz doesn't play after testing positive for COVID early this week. Under the previous NFL protocols, he would for sure be out.

Wentz does have an outside shot with the new protocols, but it's unlikely. Thus, it should be rookie sixth-round pick Sam Ehlinger making his first start and he looked overwhelmed in the preseason. Las Vegas can sell out to stop Jonathan Taylor. The Raiders have played great defense of late, allowing just 27 points in their past two. - Jordan

Buccaneers-Jets Under 45 (-110 via DraftKings)

There's not much left for either of these teams to play for. The Buccaneers won the NFC South and are somewhat in the mix for the NFC's top seed, but they're tied for second and still one full game behind Green Bay for the honor. They're more focused on staying healthy for the playoffs than pushing as hard as they can with a blowout performance against the lowly Jets.

It may not matter because the Jets are that bad and undermanned. Just two of the Jets' Overs on the season were due to their own offensive capabilities. Tampa won't be incredibly motivated but they're easily dynamic and talented enough to keep Zach Wilson and the Jets under their thumb. - Lipka

Rams-Ravens Over 46.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

The Rams could reach this total on their own, facing a Ravens secondary that is without its top four corners and chasing a 2,000-yard season for wideout Cooper Kupp.

The Rams' sixth-ranked scoring offense is hitting its stride, averaging just under 30 points per game in their last five contests. The Ravens have been putting together valiant efforts even without Lamar Jackson at quarterback for the past two games. Backup Tyler Huntley led the team to 30 points in a 61-point shootout with Green Bay two weeks ago and it'll be either him or Jackson back under center in a must-win game for Baltimore.

Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in points allowed per game. Points will be scored. - McClymont

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