Travis Kelce MNF Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds
The Kansas City Chiefs look to remain unbeaten against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Travis Kelce hopes to influence the result with his play on Monday Night Football.
The latest Monday Night Football odds suggest the Chiefs will extend their lead atop the AFC as 9-point home favorites. Kickoff at Arrowhead Stadium is set for 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN). Mike Spector's Buccaneers vs. Chiefs prediction agrees.
Kelce’s gotten off to a slow start this season, but a big performance from the superstar could be exactly what the doctor ordered for Andy Reid’s offense. He’ll face a favorable matchup opposing a Tampa Bay pass defense that struggles against tight ends.
Travis Kelce prop predictions for Monday Night Football
- Travis Kelce touchdown pick: Anytime TD (+115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Travis Kelce Over 5.5 receptions (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Travis Kelce longest reception Over 20.5 yards (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NFL odds subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Travis Kelce touchdown pick vs. Buccaneers
Travis Kelce anytime TD ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 46.51%
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Kelce jumped out to a historically bad start by failing to score in the first six games of the season. However, many believe he’s found his form after connecting with Patrick Mahomes for a touchdown last week in Las Vegas.
He has the second-shortest odds to score at most of our NFL prop betting sites - behind only Kareem Hunt - despite the lone touchdown this season. While some books juice Kelce’s odds of scoring on Monday Night Football, you can still find value at places like BetMGM (+115).
The odds indicate a 46.51% implied probability that Kelce finds the end zone, according to our odds converter. This seems high, given his performances to date. That is until you realize he’s scored a touchdown in seven of his last 10 appearances on Monday Night Football dating back to 2017.
Kelce is nothing if not a man for the big occasion. Our Phil Wood is eyeing his counterpart from the Bucs with his Buccaneers vs. Chiefs MNF prop bets.
Travis Kelce player props
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Travis Kelce Over 5.5 receptions ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -125 via bet365 | Implied probability: 55.56%
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Kelce’s numbers have taken a hit as a result of Mahomes’ slow start. He’s recorded six or more receptions in less than half of the games he’s played in this year (42.8%). He’s also seen five targets or fewer in four of seven contests.
Things are looking up for the four-time First-team All-Pro, though, as all three of those high-volume outings have come in the last four game weeks. Kelce is destined to see a large target share alongside a thin wide receiver group, despite the recent addition of DeAndre Hopkins.
This is why bet365’s odds (-125) stand out among the crowd. Most other books give him a 56.52% implied probability or higher of hauling in six receptions, something he’s done at a 66% clip over the last calendar month.
Travis Kelce longest reception Over 20.5 yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
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As we alluded to earlier, Tampa Bay’s pass defense can't figure things out. The Buccaneers are surrendering a league-worst 341 yards per game on the road through two months. Todd Bowles’ unit especially struggles with tight ends.
Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, it’s facing the cream of the crop to cap off Week 9.
Kelce’s posted receptions longer than 21 yards in four of the Chiefs’ seven games this year. The Buccaneers are surrendering plays of 20+ to opposing tight ends at a 50% rate as well.
Interested bettors must pay a standard -110 price to back Kelce to rattle off a big play. However, it’s a worthy investment in my eyes with a four-star confidence rating.
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs odds
Monday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Buccaneers vs. Chiefs
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
- How to watch: ABC/ESPN/ESPN+
- Weather: 64 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, wind 5-10 mph SW
- Favorite: Chiefs -9 (-110 via BetMGM)
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