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Travis Kelce NFL Player Props, Odds AFC Championship: Predictions for Chiefs vs. Ravens

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 28, 2024 11:37 AM EST • 3 min 37 sec read.

Baltimore hosts Kansas City in Sunday's AFC Championship Game with a Super Bowl berth on the line, and we’re making our best Travis Kelce player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce had been in a major touchdown drought ahead of last week's Divisional Round, the longest in his career — seven games. However, he ended that dry spell with an impressive performance, recording five catches for 75 yards and scoring two touchdowns.

The strong connection with QB Patrick Mahomes was pivotal in the Kansas City Chiefs narrowly defeating the Buffalo Bills in a thrilling 27-24 contest. Another impressive performance will be crucial if the Chiefs aim to overcome the Baltimore Ravens and secure their fourth Super Bowl appearance in the last five years.  

In addition to our Chiefs vs. Ravens prediction, our Chiefs vs. Ravens NFL player props, and our Lamar Jackson player props, here are our best Travis Kelce NFL player props for Chiefs vs. Ravens in the AFC Championship Game (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Travis Kelce NFL player prop predictions for AFC Championship

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Travis Kelce player props

Travis Kelce Under 62.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kelce has 71-plus receiving yards in each of the first two playoff games, but those outputs came against a Miami Dolphins defense that was without several key starters and a Bills defense that was playing with just four healthy linebackers - most of whom were not counted on for much production all season.

Now Kelce faces a versatile Ravens defense that led the league in points per game allowed (16.5) and can match up with Kelce with either linebacker Patrick Queen or safety Kyle Hamilton.

From Week 10 to the end of the regular season, Baltimore allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. However, prior to Kelce taking advantage of two banged up defenses in the playoffs, he did not top 44 receiving yards in his final three regular-season games. Expect the Ravens to make Kelce a focal point of their defensive game plan after his breakout performance last week and dare Mahomes to beat them with other weapons.

All of our best sportsbooks are in unison with an O/U of 62.5 receiving yards for Kelce, but only DraftKings, FanDuel, and bet365 charge standard -110 juice.

Travis Kelce longest reception Under 20.5 yards (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Per Inside Edge, Travis Kelce has 11 receptions of 20-plus yards in the previous eight games, which is tied for the most in the NFL among all tight ends. Meanwhile, the Ravens have allowed eight receptions of 20-plus yards to tight ends in that span, which is tied for the fourth-most.

However, Baltimore is also allowing the lowest opposing passer rating (69.6) over the last four games, and we do not expect anything to come easy for Mahomes and Kelce in this matchup despite the quarterback’s career success against top scoring defenses.

In four career games against the No. 1 scoring defense, Mahomes has led the Chiefs to a 3-1 record with 339 passing yards per game and a 9-4 TD-INT ratio, and his teams have averaged 32.3 points. However, there is no game-breaking wide receiver like Tyreek Hill on this version of the Chiefs, and Mahomes only attempted three passes of 20-plus yards downfield against Buffalo.

We expect the Ravens to defend him in much the same way, but with a much healthier cast of players defensively to limit Kelce’s upside.

We expect Kelce's signal-caller to have a slow day, as outlined in our Patrick Mahomes player props.

Travis Kelce first touchdown scorer (+800 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

Mahomes and Kelce made history last week, as they now have connected for 16 touchdown passes in the postseason, passing Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski for the most touchdowns by a quarterback-receiver duo.

Thus, we are not going to be all negative with Kelce, and this bet on him to be the first touchdown scorer is a great value considering the tight end had a 26.1% target share and 40.9% air-yard share in Mahomes’ first-ever road playoff game last week.

Kelce is second to Jerry Rice in postseason receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns, and he is clearly Mahomes’ top target amid a receiving corps that let him down with a league-worst 5.46% drop rate. In addition, if he has five or more receptions on Sunday, he would tie Julian Edelman’s postseason record of 13 straight playoff games with five-plus catches.

Kelce’s anytime touchdown scorer odds are juiced as low as -103 across our best sports betting apps, and we cannot justify that price considering he has found the endzone in just one of the previous eight games. However, the +800 odds at FanDuel for him to be the first touchdown scorer is worth a flier, especially compared to BetRivers’ +600 odds at the low end of the market.

Travis Kelce player prop picks made Friday at 6:32 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”