NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 3: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week
For the second consecutive week, the biggest moneyline favorite among the 16 NFL games lost outright. As part of our Week 3 NFL predictions, we analyze which teams are live underdogs heading into the season's third week.
Following the Cincinnati Bengals’ Week 1 home loss to the New England Patriots as the biggest favorites in the season opener, their fellow AFC North rival, the Baltimore Ravens, lost as Week 2’s biggest favorite to the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Raiders were down 23-13 in the fourth quarter, and Sunday’s win snapped a 49-game losing streak when trailing by double-digits in the fourth quarter.
I was a New England Patriots overtime loss away from going 2-1 with my NFL upset picks and predictions for a second consecutive week, but I salvaged the day with a +158 cash in backing the Cleveland Browns to upset the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road.
This week’s upset picks involve a quarterback in a revenge spot against his former team and calls for the two-time defending champions to suffer their first loss.
NFL underdogs to back: Week 3
NFL odds as of Wednesday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Packers (+134 via FanDuel) at Titans ⭐⭐⭐
- Bears (+110 via FanDuel) at Colts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Falcons (+180 via BetMGM) vs. Chiefs ⭐⭐⭐
Week 3 upset predictions
NFL picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Packers (+134) ⭐⭐⭐
If Jordan Love were healthy and under center, it is very likely that the Green Bay Packers favorites of more than a field goal in this road matchup against the 0-2 Tennessee Titans. But this is a great revenge spot for backup quarterback Malik Willis, who the Titans traded to the Packers in late August in exchange for a mere seventh-round draft pick.
Willis threw his first career touchdown pass in last week’s home upset of the Indianapolis Colts, and while his passing-yard total was a modest 122 yards, it was still a career-high. Green Bay pounded the rock 53 times (its most carries in a game since 1978) in the upset, and its 261 rushing yards were the franchise’s most since 2003.
A solid running game is a great recipe for success on the road. Given that the Titans have scored 30 or fewer points in 38 consecutive games and their quarterback has five turnovers compared to two touchdowns thus far, it should not take much offense to pull off a second straight upset.
There is a nine-cent gap between FanDuel’s +134 odds and BetMGM’s +125 odds, so a winning $10 wager would pay out $13.40 in profits compared to $12.50 at BetMGM.
Best odds: +134 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 42.74%
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Bears (+110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Amid all the offensive line problems that the Chicago Bears had in Week 2, they still had the ball at their own 47-yard line with 1:11 left, needing a touchdown to beat an excellent Houston Texans team on the road.
Caleb Williams was sacked seven times and hit 11 times in total, with a lot of the pressure from the Texans coming right up the gut between the two tackle spots. But I expect Chicago to establish a solid run game this week to help take the pressure off its rookie quarterback.
Indianapolis is off to its first 0-2 start since 2021, in large part because it has allowed 200-plus yards on the ground in consecutive games for the first time since the 2017 season. And while Williams is a rookie, he has started more games in his career (including collegiate starts) than Colts QB Anthony Richardson, who has already thrown three interceptions after being picked off just twice through his first five NFL starts.
Chicago’s moneyline odds have come up slightly from an opening number of +100 in the Week 3 NFL odds, but last week’s loss to the Texans left me more encouraged than pessimistic about this week.
A winning $10 wager at FanDuel’s +110 would pay out $21.
Best odds: +110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 47.62%
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Falcons (+180) ⭐⭐⭐
The Atlanta Falcons are at a scheduling disadvantage in this game, coming off a road win as Monday Night Football odds underdogs. But the Falcons did what they had to do and upset the Eagles, with Philadelphia’s passing attack compromised after A.J. Brown missed his first game after joining the team. Now, I expect the Falcons to take advantage of another team’s injury woes for a second straight week, as the Kansas City Chiefs are without starting running back Isiah Pacheco.
Patrick Mahomes is coming off his first career game with two interceptions and fewer than 200 passing yards, and his 151 passing yards were the fewest he has had in a game that he finished in his career.
With tight end Travis Kelce not opening up the middle of the field as much as he has in the past (four catches for 39 yards through two games), Kansas City is ripe for an upset with an offense that should look one-dimensional with limited options at running back to replace the injured Pacheco.
Atlanta’s implied probability of pulling off the upset is as high as 37.04% based on DraftKings’ +170 moneyline odds, and there is still plenty of value on the underdogs even though the line came down from +200 in the wake of Pacheco’s injury news. A winning $10 wager at BetMGM would net $18 in profits.
Best odds: +180 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 35.71%
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