NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 7: Chargers Will Hang Tough Again At Arrowhead
The Los Angeles Chargers securing a victory in an AFC West clash against the Kansas City Chiefs is the focal point of one of our top NFL upset predictions for Week 7. The Chargers have enjoyed success in their recent matchups against the Chiefs, and we are using the best NFL odds available from our best sports betting apps when making this prediction.
Week 6 saw the last two unbeaten teams, the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles, suffering road losses as heavy favorites. This served as a stark reminder that, despite a team's prominent position in Super Bowl odds, the NFL's competitive balance leaves no guarantees.
Check out other NFL Week 7 odds and lines and NFL Week 7 prop bets are our best NFL upset picks for Week 7 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL upset picks: Week 7
- Indianapolis Colts (+125 via BetMGM) vs. Cleveland Browns ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Los Angeles Chargers (+205 via bet365) vs. Kansas City Chiefs ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Minnesota Vikings (+250 via FanDuel) vs. San Francisco 49ers ⭐⭐
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NFL upset predictions
Colts ML vs. Browns (+125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Indianapolis Colts are coming off their worst loss of the season in Week 6, a 37-20 defeat at the Jacksonville Jaguars that wasn’t as lopsided as the final score indicated. The Colts outgained the Jaguars by more than 100 yards and held Jacksonville to fewer than three yards per carry, but they were undone by four turnovers that consistently set the Jags up with good field position.
The Cleveland Browns pulled off one of the NFL’s biggest upsets of the season last week, beating the San Francisco 49ers as double-digit underdogs. However, as much credit as the Browns’ defense deserves for shutting down San Francisco’s powerful attack, Cleveland also benefited from injuries to several key 49ers starters, a couple of missed field goals, and inclement weather conditions.
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Rain and wind won’t be a factor on the indoor field of Lucas Oil Stadium, placing more of a premium on the passing game. The Browns have averaged just 11 points per outing the last two weeks without starting quarterback Deshaun Watson, who might have to miss his third straight game due to a rotator cuff injury. Watson returned to the practice field Thursday in a limited capacity and his status for Sunday remains up in the air.
Indy is also down to a second-string quarterback in Gardner Minshew, but the Colts have still scored 20-plus points in every contest during 2023. That’s helped them pull off three upset victories in their first six games, and they should be live for another one against the low-scoring Browns.
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Chargers ML vs. Chiefs (+205 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Even though the Los Angeles Chargers enter Week 7 below .500, not much separates them from being the lone unbeaten team in the NFL. Their three losses have come by a combined eight points, nothing new for Chargers fans who have seen each of their team’s last five defeats come by a field goal or less, and its last eight losses decided by a single possession.
It’s also been a familiar start to the season for the Kansas City Chiefs, who have won five straight following a one-point loss to the Detroit Lions in their season opener. However, Kansas City is winning differently than in years past. Patrick Mahomes and the offense have yet to get on track, scoring 23 points or fewer in four of their first six games, but the defense has stepped up by holding all six of its opponents to 21 or fewer.
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L.A. has had no issues solving Kansas City’s defense in recent meetings between the AFC West rivals, scoring 27, 24, 28, 30, and 38 points in the last five meetings. The Chargers are also capable of shutting down the Chiefs' running game, something they've relied on more than usual lately due to a thin receiving corps.
Sure, the Chargers are playing on a short week after losing to the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football, but their familiarity with Kansas City should help them overcome having a bit less time to prepare.
The Chargers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against Kansas City, winning two of those games outright and losing two of them in overtime. Look for them to give the Chiefs all they can handle once again.
Vikings ML vs. 49ers (+250 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
The 49ers’ 15-game regular-season winning streak came to an end last Sunday with the 19-17 loss to the Browns. After Brock Purdy and the Niners’ offense failed to crack the 30-point plateau for the first time in their last nine regular-season contests, many are expecting a bounce-back effort on Monday night against the Minnesota Vikings.
However, that might not be as easy as the seven-point spread suggests. San Francisco is suddenly dealing with significant injuries to several of its top offensive players, with running back Christian McCaffrey (oblique), wideout Deebo Samuel (shoulder), and offensive tackle Trent Williams (ankle) all exiting last week's contest early.
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Purdy wasn’t very effective without McCaffrey and Samuel at his disposal, completing less than half of his passes for 125 yards, a touchdown, and an interception - the third time in five games that Purdy has thrown one or fewer touchdown passes. The Niners also have concerns about their kicking game after rookie Luke Moody missed a pair of kicks, including the game-winner late in the fourth quarter.
The Vikings have righted the ship after an 0-3 start, beating the Chicago Bears 19-13 last week for their second win in three games. Defense is helping the Vikes hang in games without star wideout Justin Jefferson, allowing just 53 points during the three-game stretch and showing signs of rapid improvement under first-year coordinator Brian Flores.
NFL upset picks made 10/18/2023 at 7:46 p.m. ET.
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