Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Odds, Picks, Predictions: Look to the Under for Value

Losers of three straight games for the first time all season, the struggling Boston Bruins visit the rival  Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday. Read on for our best Bruins vs. Maple Leafs pick based on top odds.

Are the Boston Bruins in … a slump?

The Bruins have dropped three games in a row for the first time in 2022-23 – and still hold a seven-point lead over the rest of the league, which is the best illustration of just how dominant the B's have been.

Boston enters Wednesday's action with an impressive 16-6-2 road record, good for a .708 away points percentage that is tied for fourth-best in the league.

Still, a skid is a skid – and the Maple Leafs should prove to be worthy opponents for their Original Six rivals. Toronto has 70 points in 51 games and has thrived under goaltender Ilya Samsonov, who is 5-1-1 in seven straight starts in place of the injured Matt Murray.

This should be a compelling matchup on the last night of games before the NHL All-Star break between the first- and third-place teams in the overall standings.

Here is our best Bruins vs. Maple Leafs NHL pick (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Bruins vs. Maple Leafs game info

• Date: Wednesday, Feb. 1, 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN+, Sportsnet, TVAS, NESN
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON

Bruins vs. Maple Leafs odds

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Bruins vs. Maple Leafs odds analysis

The FanDuel moneyline opened with the Maple Leafs favored at -120 and the Bruins at +100. A quick early surge in the Bruins' favor (60% of the wagers on Boston) has resulted in a major line move, with the Bruins now at -130 and the Leafs at +106.

The total opened at a rock-bottom 5.5, with the Over at -122 and the Under at +100. With 73% of the early consensus action coming in on the Over, the total has predictably moved to 6, with the Over at -104 and the Under at -118.

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Bruins vs. Maple Leafs pick

Under 6 (-118 via FanDuel)  ⭐⭐⭐

The Bruins had been running roughshod over the NHL until their recent slump, which has seen them score just six total goals in their three consecutive losses.

However, the Bruins have been a strong defensive team all season, ranking fourth in expected goals against and third in goals against per 60 minutes on the road.

Boston has hit a total of six goals or fewer in seven of its past eight games while Toronto has reached a total of six or fewer in six of its previous 10.

Samsonov has been outstanding on home ice, with a .930 save percentage, 1.89 Goals Against Average and 11.73 Goals Saved Above Expected in 17 games. He has allowed two or fewer goals in 12 of 15 starts at Scotiabank Arena.

Aside from Samsonov’s strong play, the other reason to like the Leafs to hit the Under is that Auston Matthews remains out of the lineup with a knee injury. Even if this season has not been up to Matthews’ usually stratospheric standards, he still has 25 goals in 47 games – and that offense is not easily replaced, especially against a team as strong as Boston.

In a vacuum, I like this game as a four-star pick. However, on the last night before a holiday break, for two teams comfortably in the playoffs, I do have some doubt about how much focus there might be on the defensive details as opposed to weather patterns in Mexico. Thus, this pick gets three stars from me.

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Bruins vs. Maple Leafs best odds

FanDuel (-118) 

Caesars and PointsBet have a total at 5.5, which makes for a bolder Under pick. At least at 6, a 3-2 game with an empty net goal can still end in a push. FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM are all on a total of 6, with FanDuel at -118 coming in with the best price.

This total appears to be hovering on the edge, so if money comes in on the Under at 6, do not be surprised if DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM join the other top-rated sportsbooks with the total at 5.5.

Bruins-Maple Leafs pick made 2/1/2023 at 9:30 a.m. ET.

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