Canada vs. Sweden Prediction, Picks & Odds: 4 Nations Face-Off Preview

It may have only been two days without hockey, but it feels like a lot longer.

Finally, Canada and Sweden get the 4 Nations Face-Off festivities going in today's opener from Bell Centre in Montreal (8 p.m. ET, TNT). Canada (+140) is the 4 Nations Face-Off odds favorite to win the tournament ahead of the first puck drop, while Sweden is third (+430).

While it may be an uphill battle for the Swedes, it's important to remember this is the first time an international hockey tournament features the world's best players in eight years. It isn't easy to analyze how these teams will click, so buckle up for a fascinating and electric eight days.

Our Canada vs. Sweden prediction and picks back the co-hosts to get off to a winning start in a game with at least six goals, and that hasn't changed since we found out one of starting goalies on Monday. 

Who are the starting goaltenders for Canada vs. Sweden? 

• Canada: Jordan Binnington
• 2024-25 stats with St. Louis Blues: 15-19-4, 2.89 GAA, .896 SV%, 3 SO
• Sweden: Not yet announced between:
• Filip Gustavsson 2024-25 stats with Minnesota Wild: 22-11-3, 2.63 GAA, .915 SV%, 3 SO
• Samuel Errsson 2024-25 stats with Philadelphia Flyers: 16-10-3, 2.81 GAA, .896 SV%, 2 SO
• Linus Ullmark 2024-25 stats with Ottawa Senators: 12-9-2, 2.49 GAA, .915 SV%, 3 SO

Canada vs. Sweden predictions for Wednesday

Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

• Canada vs. Sweden moneyline pick: Canada 3-way ML (-165 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Canada vs. Sweden Over/Under pick: Over 5.5 (-135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Who will win Canada vs. Sweden?

Canada 3-way ML ⭐⭐⭐

Canada is heavily favored in the opener against the Swedes, with -230 moneyline odds at FanDuel. Of our best sports betting apps, FanDuel offers the best price. With microscopic value available in the -230 odds, where a $10 bet would profit just $4.35, we're turning to the 3-way moneyline, expecting Canada to win in regulation. 

Jon Cooper named Jordan Binnington as Canada's starting netminder. 

Sweden head coach Sam Hallam has not named his starter. However, he'll probably give Linus Ullmark or Filip Gustavsson the nod. Considering Linus Ullmark's recent lack of game time, I'm presuming the latter. 

Canada has too much offensive clout for Sweden

Aside from analyzing each team's roster, we don't have much to go on here. Nobody has a clue which team will have the best chemistry or be the most cohesive. What we do know, though, is that Canada's roster is far superior, aside from the goaltenders. Canada is quicker, has more depth and is more talented. 

Canada's prospective forward lines should put the other three nations on notice. Connor McDavid, Mitch Marner, and Sam Reinhart practiced together on Monday, while Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon, and Mark Stone formed line 1B. Need I say more?

I feature a couple of these guys in my Canada vs. Sweden player prop picks.  

Unless Gustavsson or Ullmark stand on their head, I can't foresee anything but a Canada 3-way moneyline victory. A winning $10 bet will profit $6.06. It's a three-star play due to the long odds. 

Best odds: -165 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 62.26%

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What will be the score of Canada vs. Sweden?

Over 5.5 goals ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If I were to pick an exact score, it would be 4-2 for Canada. Cooper's squad has too much firepower to be kept at bay. They will, however, have their work cut out against Sweden's starting netminder. Gustavsson has won four of his last five games with the Minnesota Wild and has 14.6 goals saved above expected. 

He should get the nod.

Ullmark has played just two games since returning from an extended injury hiatus. While Gustavsson will be tough to beat, I can't see him preventing the Canadians from scoring at least three goals. If they score three, I envision Canada scoring an empty-netter insurance marker. 

For me, that's the worst-case scenario for this star-studded Canadian team.

Sweden will probably line up with Lucas Raymond and Jesper Bratt on one line, with Adrian Kempe, Filip Forsberg, and Elias Pettersson on another. While both are strong lines, they pale in comparison to Canada's top two units.

And Canada has an even more decisive advantage further down the lineup.  

They'll focus on heaping the pressure on Mika Zibanejad, who is an abject minus-24 with the New York Rangers, and Rickard Rakell. The Pens' forward is sporting a ghastly minus-14. A winning $10 bet will profit $7.41.

Best odds: -135 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 57.45%

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Canada vs. Sweden odds

Odds via Betway.

Canada vs. Sweden rosters

Here are the rosters for Wednesday's 4 Nations Face-Off Canada vs. Sweden matchup.

When is Canada vs. Sweden?

• When: Wednesday, Feb. 12
• Puck drop: 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Bell Centre (Montreal, Que.)
• How to watch: Sportsnet, TNT
• Favorite: Canada (-230 via FanDuel)

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