Conn Smythe Trophy Odds 2025: Can Bennett or Marchand Join List of Most Unlikely MVP Winners?

If Conn Smythe Trophy odds favorites Sam Bennett or Brad Marchand win MVP, they'll joint the short list of the most unlikely players to secure the honor in the last decade.

Gary Pearson

Last updated: June 16, 2025 9:21 AM EDT • 6 min read

Conn Smythe Trophy Odds: How Do Bennett, Marchand Compare to Other Unlikely MVP Winners? — Pictured: Florida Panthers forward Sam Bennett scores against the Edmonton Oilers. Photo by Jim Rassol via Imagn Images.

The Stanley Cup playoffs have had a bit of everything, including outrageously improbable runs by two players sitting atop the Conn Smythe Trophy odds leaderboard entering Game 6.

Sam Bennett, the consensus minus-money favorite across our best sports betting sites, and Brad Marchand are in the running to join the likes of Ryan O'Reilly and Justin Williams as the most unlikely players to win the coveted individual honor of the Stanley Cup Playoffs MVP in the last decade.

Here's how the pair of Panthers' odds compare to other previous winners. We also offer reasons why both players are in the driver's seat ahead of Tuesday's high-stakes tilt.

🏆 Latest Conn Smythe Trophy odds 2025

Here are the latest and live Conn Smythe Trophy odds from our best NHL betting sites ahead of Game 6 between the Oilers and Panthers on Tuesday:

🏅 Past Conn Smythe winners & odds

Odds entering the Stanley Cup Final via BetMGM, one of our best sports betting apps.

Player	Odds	Implied probability	Profit ($10 bet)
**Sam Bennett (2025)	+3000	3.23%	$300
**Brad Marchand (2025)	+6000	1.64%	$600
Connor McDavid (2024)	+200	33.33%	$20
Jonathan Marchessault (2023)	+650	13.33%	$65
Cale Makar (2022)	+175	36.36%	$17.50
Andrei Vasilevskiy (2021)	+125	44.44%	$12.50
Victor Hedman (2020)	+450	18.18%	$45
Ryan O'Reilly (2019)	+5000	1.96%	$500
Alex Ovechkin (2018)	+220	31.25%	$22
Sidney Crosby (2017)	+410	19.61%	$41
Sidney Crosby (2016)	+500	16.67%	$50
Duncan Keith (2015)	+325	23.53%	$32.50
Justin Williams (2014)	+3000	3.23%	$300

** Hasn't won Conn Smythe yet. Odds are accurate as of June 16, 2025, before Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final

🐆 Sam Bennett's Conn Smythe Trophy case

When the Conn Smythe Trophy odds opened at the start of the postseason, Bennett had +15000 odds at BetMGM. Those odds implied a 0.66% chance of winning. That's about the same probability of the Buffalo Sabres (+14000) lifting the Holy Grail next season.

Don't get any delusions of grandeur, Sabres fans.

Bennett's run has been as remarkable as the odds suggest. He had 51 points in 76 regular-season contests, tied for 121st overall with five other players. Incredibly, one of the players who also finished the season with 51 points is Marchand.

👊 Bennett bashing his way to record-setting playoffs

Bennett is tied for fourth in playoff scoring with 22 points in 22 games.

While it's not a prolific rate of return, Bennett has been more efficient in lighting the lamp in enemy rinks than anyone in the rich history of the Stanley Cup playoffs.

He has 13 road goals, the most ever. That's a goal-per-road contest, which includes his current six-game road goal-scoring streak. Only five players have achieved that feat.

While Bennett has only one game-winning goal, he consistently produces in clutch moments, more often than not when his team is in desperate need of a lift.

He's also one of the most physically formidable players, bashing, bruising, and getting under the opponent's skin as naturally as a panther stalks its prey. And he torments goaltenders like no other.

Love or loath him, Bennett has bullied his way to the top of the Conn Smythe Trophy oddsboard, and he has a 70.41% chance of becoming MVP if the Panthers win on Tuesday.

That's a far cry from the 0.66% chance he started the playoffs with.

⏺️ Bennett records of note

Most road goals in a single playoff year: 13
Six-game road goal streak: He became just the fifth player in NHL history to score in six consecutive road playoff games, joining legends like Brian Propp (7), Maurice Richard (6), and Kevin Stevens (6)
Franchise records for the Panthers: Franchise-high 15 playoff goals, leading all NHL players; He became the first Panther to score in five consecutive road playoff games
Elite company in NHL history: One of only four active players with 15-plus goals in a single postseason - joining Alex Ovechkin (15 in 2018), Sidney Crosby (15 in 2009), and Zach Hyman (16 in 2024).
First post-2005 player to record double-digit goals and 100-plus hits in one playoff run - echoing Ovechkin’s 2018 campaign

📋 Brad Marchand's Conn Smythe Trophy case

Like Bennett, Marchand began the playoffs with +15000 odds. He started the Stanley Cup Final with +6000 odds, even longer than Bennett's +3000.

And just like Bennett, his ascendency has been remarkable, a fantasy-like narrative Disney filmmakers scour the sports landscape for. Now, he need only finish his otherworldly run with a storybook ending.

💪 Marchand dragging Panthers to victory

Six of Marchand's 10 playoff goals have come in the Stanley Cup Final. He's the first player to score six goals in a Stanley Cup Final since Esa Tikkanen achieved the feat against the Boston Bruins in 1988.

While Bennett deservingly takes the plaudits for being the undisputed road warrior of the playoffs, Marchand has given him a run for his money in the final.

The 37-year-old dragged the Panthers to victory in Game 2, becoming the first player to score a shorthanded goal and an overtime winner in a Stanley Cup Final.

It wasn't his first shorthanded goal in a final, either. He netted one against the Vancouver Canucks on the same day exactly 14 years ago, in Game 3 of the 2011 final.

He then took things into his own hands again in Game 5, scoring two goals to put the visitors in cruise control. Marchand is also the co-favorite to become the first non-captain to hoist the Stanley Cup, which we covered in the Stanley Cup hand-off odds.

If you ask me, those +190 odds at FanDuel are a steal, especially considering how he's galvanized the collective since joining from Boston. Everything he's touched in Florida has turned to gold, excluding the ridiculous rat-shooting song and dance.

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⏺️ Marchand records of note

He became the second player aged 37 or older to score in each of his first two games of a Stanley Cup Final
He became the first player in modern history (since 1988) to score six goals in a single Stanley Cup Final
Most goals by any player 35 or older in a Stanley Cup Final
First to record 5-plus goals in a Stanley Cup Final with two teams
Most career Stanley Cup Final goals among active players (13)
Plus-18 ranking, tied for the most with linemate Anton Lundell
First player ever to win five Game 7s against the same franchise (Toronto Maple Leafs)

💵 Best Stanley Cup betting sites

Want to bet on who will win the Conn Smythe Trophy? Here are the best NHL betting sites and best sportsbook promos for the 2025 Stanley Cup Final:

FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
Hard Rock Bet Promo Code

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Written By:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.