Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens NHL Picks, Predictions: Can Habs Pull the Upset at Home?
The Montreal Canadiens are huge home underdogs as they face off against the Toronto Maple Leafs during the NHL’s opening week in Montreal on Wednesday night. Check out our top Maple Leafs-Canadiens picks below.
Will this finally be the year for the Maple Leafs? They once again lost in the first round last season, but they’re poised for another strong campaign with most of their roster intact. There’s been a big change between the pipes, however, with Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov replacing last season's starter, Jack Campbell.
The Canadiens would be overjoyed to be in playoff contention this season, let alone winning a round. They’re expected to be one of the worst teams in the league again this season after drafting first overall.
Here are my NHL picks and predictions for Wednesday’s Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens matchup (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, and FOXBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Game Info
Date: Wednesday, Oct. 12, 7 p.m. ET
TV: TVAS, SN
Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, QC
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Odds
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Odds Analysis
As expected, the Leafs are huge favorites in this one with odds between -245 (DraftKings) and -265 (Unibet). The Canadiens are as high as +220 (FOX Bet) underdogs in the season opener.
The total opened at seven but has moved down to 6.5 at some books with the Over heavily favored.
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Picks
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens ML Pick
Canadiens (+220) ★★
I’m not going to pretend that I’m too confident in this bet, but crazy things can happen in Maple Leafs-Canadiens games. Toronto hasn’t won a regular-season game in Montreal since 2021. The Canadiens beat Toronto 5-2 and 4-2 in the two meetings in Montreal last season.
Getting odds of +220 is something I can’t pass up. There are question marks in net for the Leafs and the Canadiens are looking to build off of a relatively strong final few months under head coach Martin St. Louis.
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens O/U Pick
Under 6.5 (+110) ★★★
The oddsmakers — and most bettors — are expecting a high-scoring game in Montreal, so I’ll take the plus-odds on the Under 6.5.
While the Canadiens beat the Maple Leafs 5-2 in one of their meetings last season, that was the only one of the four head-to-head clashes that had more than six combined goals. The Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings overall and 6-1-1 in the last eight matchups in Montreal.
The Leafs have a lot of offensive firepower, but they may opt to play a bit more conservatively to help Murray settle in. This could end up being a shootout, but once again I can’t pass up these odds.
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Prop Pick
Caufield anytime goalscorer (+180) ★★★
Cole Caufield came alive in the latter half of last season. He scored 22 goals in the final 37 games, with at least one goal in 18 contests. The sniper scored in each of the final three matchups of the season against the Leafs and was on fire this preseason with four goals. Look for him to light the lamp at home at +180 odds.
Where to bet on Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Picks
Maple Leafs-Canadiens picks from 10/12/2022 at 1:12 p.m. ET.
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