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Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Picks, Predictions & Odds: Auston Matthews Times Two

Neil Parker

Last Updated: May 10, 2023 12:43 PM EDT • 2 min 40 sec read.

It’s all on the line for the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 4 against the Florida Panthers on Wednesday, and Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has surveyed the available markets and offers his top pick based on the NHL odds across our best sports betting apps.

Rewind nine days, and the Maple Leafs were the consensus betting favorites to win the Stanley Cup. They now head into Wednesday’s must-win Game 4 fighting to stave off elimination.

Life moves pretty fast.

Meanwhile, the Panthers, have strung together six consecutive statement wins: Three against the top-seeded Boston Bruins, and the latest three to put the Maple Leafs on the ropes.

Here is our best Maple Leafs vs. Panthers pick for Wednesday (odds via our best NHL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).  

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers pick

Auston Matthews 2+ goals (+580 via FanDuel Sportsbook) ⭐⭐

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Crickets, zero, nada, zilch, none.

Matthews has been blanked in the goals column through the first three games of Round 2. He also hasn’t been overly dangerous, with his nine individual high-danger scoring chances qualifying as just 1.7 individual expected goals. 

Still, the 2021-22 Rocket Richard winner has generated a team-high 26 shot attempts, and I’m anticipating statistical correction ahead for Florida netminder Sergei Bobrovsky. 

The Russian tendy has thrown it back to his Vezina Trophy days with a .938 save percentage through the first three games against the Maple Leafs. He’s performed even better while Florida has been shorthanded with a .941 mark, including turning away all six high-danger shots Bobrovsky has faced.

Remember, Bobrovsky posted a .905 save percentage across 185 games through his first four campaigns with the Panthers. It's time for Goalie Bob to revert back to his regular-season form.

Matthews will also log huge minutes if Wednesday’s game is competitive, and especially if Toronto trails at any point.

The shot volume and scoring chances will be there for No. 34 in Game 4. 

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers best odds

FanDuel (+580)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Matthews 2+ goalsMatthews 2+ goalsMatthews 2+ goalsMatthews 2+ goalsMatthews 2+ goals
N/A+580 🔥+400 ❄️N/A+450

You’ll definitely want to make sure you place this bet through FanDuel. Landing the +580 odds presents a positive expected value of 36%, and it’s also the difference of an added $18 of profit on a winning $10 bet over the +400 price through BetMGM.

Check out our top sports betting sites and best NHL betting sites.

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers odds

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers odds analysis

The top price for Toronto's moneyline is -115 through DraftKings, while several of our best NHL betting sites are featuring the longest odds for Florida at +100. FanDuel is the best shop to play the Maple Leafs on the puck line (+198), and DraftKings is posting the lowest vig for the Panthers (-215).

This total hasn’t moved off the opening 6.5, and the Over is carrying the larger vig. The best shop for the Over is BetMGM with a -128 price, while four of our five best sports betting sites are pricing the Under at +110, with BetMGM offering an outlier +105.

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers game info

  • Date: Wednesday, May 10, 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN, Sportsnet
  • Location: FLA Live Arena, Sunrise, FL

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers pick made 5/10/2023 at 10:45 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Neil Parker
A lifelong Cowboys, Cubs, Maple Leafs and Gators supporter, Neil has been covering sports in print and online since 2011. His past stops include USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook and RotoWire among others. He's a graduate of St. Thomas University and Acadia University and spends ample time at KenWo Golf Club.