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Maple Leafs vs. Penguins Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonigh'ts NHL Game

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: December 7, 2024 7:29 AM EST • 2 min 32 sec read.

Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews against the Washington Capitals as we offer our Maple Leafs vs. Penguins prediction.
Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews against the Washington Capitals. Photo by Nick Turchiaro via Imagn Images

After losing on Friday, the Pittsburgh Penguins and Toronto Maple Leafs get back on the horse as they meet at PPG Paints Arena on Saturday (7 p.m. ET, NHL Network). 

Our Maple Leafs vs. Penguins prediction expects the visitors to score at least four goals against the league's second-worst home defense. 

Toronto, among the Stanley Cup odds favorites, lost 3-1 to Washington on Friday, its first defeat in four games. Pittsburgh suffered its first setback in five games, falling to the New York Rangers 4-2 in the Big Apple.

Today's Maple Leafs vs. Penguins prediction

Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

My best pick: Maple Leafs Over 3.5 goals ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -105 via Betway | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Penguins' porous defense at PPG Paints Arena

After waddling like overweight, injured penguins for most of the season, Pittsburgh graduated to walking in the last three at home. But even amid their current three-game winning streak at PPG Paints Arena, the Pens have struggled to shore things up defensively. 

Pittsburgh conceded at least four goals in four of the last five home games. The only exception came against the Calgary Flames, who created bundles of chances and finished with 4.42 expected goals.

The Pens have inarguably been better offensively, but let's not forget that they have the league's second-worst defensive record at home, allowing 3.93 goals per game. They've allowed the second-most expected goals against (64.29) and the third-most goals against above expected (9.71).

Head coach Mike Sullivan will almost assuredly give Tristan Jarry the start. Jarry has allowed at least four goals in three of six starts after being recalled from a conditioning loan with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton of the American Hockey League. 

And he'll be facing a Maple Leafs team that has scored four goals or more in two of the last three road contests and two of four overall since Auston Matthews' return.

Plus, Toronto will be in a sour mood after lighting the lamp only once against Washington. A winning $10 bet will profit $9.52.

Maple Leafs vs. Penguins player prop pick

NHL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change.

Auston Matthews prop pick: Over 4.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +110 via Betway | Implied probability: 47.62%

It's the first time Matthews has been faced with a back-to-back situation since he returned from injury, which is my most pressing concern when making this bet. Is he in peak physical shape to dominate a tired Pens defense that allows the most shots per game on home ice (33.1)?  

I also like Matthews to score at -106, and I'll be placing that bet, too.

But I'm going with Matthews firing at least five shots, as he had eight last time he faced the Pens on Oct. 12. He had only two shots against Washington on Friday, which should provide some added motivation. 

The plus-money odds make this a bet I can't pass up, and a winning $10 wager will profit $11. 

Maple Leafs vs. Penguins live odds & info

  • When: Saturday, Dec. 7
  • Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
  • Where: PPG Paints Arena (Pittsburgh)
  • How to watch: Sportsnet, NHL Network
  • Favorite: Maple Leafs (-160 via Betway)

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.