Oilers vs. Red Wings Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's NHL Game
The Edmonton Oilers enjoyed their best and most complete game on Friday night against the Pittsburgh Penguins, registering their first shutout of the season in the 4-0 win.
The Stanley Cup odds favorites travel across the continent to play the Detroit Red Wings on Sunday at Little Caesars Arena (6 p.m. ET, NHL Network). The Red Wings played in Buffalo on Saturday, losing 5-3 after enduring a sluggish start they couldn't recover from.
The Red Wings, who were 6-4 on the second night of back-to-back encounters last season, have won three of their last four games. The Oilers won both tests against Detroit last season.
Our Oilers vs. Red Wings prediction focuses on Edmonton's chances of winning in Detroit while offering two appealing prop picks.
Oilers vs. Red Wings prediction
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
My best bet: Oilers regulation win (3-way ML) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -125 via Betway | Implied probability: 55.56%
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On Friday night, Stuart Skinner turned aside all 27 shots and finished with 2.16 goals saved above expected to secure his first shutout of the season. It marked just the second time in eight games the Oilers won the goaltending battle.
It was an important development for Skinner and the team, who've regularly outplayed the opposition but come away from games with nothing to show. The Oilers dominated Pittsburgh and finished the contest with 50 shots and 5.82 expected goals.
Most teams expect those types of numbers across two games. Friday felt like a solid foundation from which to springboard.
Edmontonians will hope Skinner's proficient outing against the Pens was a sign of things to come, and I'd be more surprised than a toddler tasting lemon for the first time if Kris Knoblauch doesn't go back to Skinner.
Edmonton has the second-best expected goals differential (7.88) but the third-worst actual goals differential above expected (-9.88).
That's mainly due to their sixth-worst PDO (96.72), which combines collective shooting and save percentage. It's only a matter of time before at least one of those stats improves.
Detroit's inconsistent start
The Red Wings have endured an up-and-down, yo-yo-like start to their campaign. They lost 5-3 in Buffalo on Saturday, conceding two goals in the opening 12 minutes. Detroit has the league's second-worst expected goals percentage (41.65%) but is tied for 15th in actual goals percentage (50).
Riding excellent goaltending and opportunistic scoring, the Wings have the third-worst expected goal differential (-4.95) but the ninth-best actual goals differential above expected (4.95).
Those numbers point to a probable forthcoming regression, and playing the high-octane, well-rested Oilers on the second night of a back-to-back doesn't bode well.
A $10 bet will profit $8 if the Oilers win in regulation.
Oilers vs. Red Wings player prop bet
NHL picks made Sunday; odds subject to change.
Viktor Arvidsson prop bet: Over 0.5 points ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -120 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.55%
Let me be the first to say I don't love the -120 odds for this prop. The price is expensive considering Viktor Arvidsson scored his first points of the season Friday against the Pens.
While it took Arvidsson over seven games to find his range in Edmonton, he notched three assists against Pittsburgh in what Oilers fans will hope was a breakout night.
The former 34-goal man was acquired to add secondary scoring, and he's playing on a line with Leon Draisaitl to give him every chance of doing so. While it's been a slow and sluggish start for the 31-year-old, he should enter Sunday's game with newfound confidence.
A winning $10 bet will profit $8.33.
Connor McDavid prop bet: Over 0.5 power-play points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +115 via Betway | Implied probability: 46.51%
The Oilers power play has uncharacteristically struggled out of the gate, scoring three goals on 21 attempts for a 14.3% efficiency rate. That's the league's sixth-worst power play.
It feels weird and out of place, like saying the Red Wings will win the Cup. The Oilers have had one of the best power plays for about half a decade, and I can't see that uber-skilled unit reeling all season.
There's some good news. The Oilers face the Red Wings' second-worst penalty kill, ticking at a 64.3% efficiency rate. They've allowed 10 goals on 28 opposing power plays. The bad news? Edmonton has the worst penalty kill, but that's an altogether different story.
Look for Connor McDavid to notch his third power-play point of the season. A winning $10 bet will yield an $11.50 profit.
Oilers vs. Red Wings live odds & info
- When: Sunday, Oct. 27
- Puck drop: 6 p.m. ET
- Where: Little Caesars Arena (Detroit)
- How to watch: NHL Network
- Favorite: Oilers (-200 via Betway)
Oilers-Red Wings predictions made Sunday at 9 a.m. ET.
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