NHL Playoffs First Round Predictions: What Are the Best Underdog Picks in Round 1?
Almost every year, one or two favorites fall by the wayside in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Last season, it was the Winnipeg Jets' turn to fold like a cheap suit, losing in five games to the Colorado Avalanche.
Two favorites in each of the previous two opening rounds were forced to hit the links earlier than intended.
With that in mind, what are the best Round 1 long-shot and underdog picks? We offer two tasty options in our Stanley Cup playoffs first-round predictions.
💰 Best Stanley Cup playoffs first round long-shot, underdog picks
Chance of an upset based on a 1 to 5 star scale, with 5 being the most likely
🎯 WC2 Montreal Canadiens 🍁 vs. M1 Washington Capitals 🏛️
Why should you back the Canadiens?
While the Montreal Canadiens didn't secure a place in the dance until the season's final game against the Carolina Hurricanes, they've been playing with a level of desperation for which the playoffs are renowned for the better part of two months.
On Feb. 22, the Habs had the unenviable task of leapfrogging five teams to snag the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference.
Since the restart of the NHL schedule after the 4 Nations Face-Off break, the Canadiens' record (15-5-6) is tied with the Tampa Bay Lightning for the fifth-best. Only the St. Louis Blues (4) have fewer regulation losses in that time.
The Habs are 10-0-2 at the Bell Centre in the span. There is an unexplainable effervescence about the Canadiens and how they confidently go about their business, adopting head coach Martin St. Louis' underdog persona.
Front and center in that narrative is their diminutive captain, Nick Suzuki. In the aforementioned timeframe, Suzuki posted 37 points (15 goals, 22 assists) in 26 games, the fourth most behind David Pastrnak (38), Nikita Kucherov (39), and Robert Thomas (40). He's also tied for the fifth-best plus-minus (+16) and the second-most game-winning goals (4).
And then there's the fairytale story of 19-year-old Ivan Demidov, who scored a goal and an assist in the first period of his debut against the Chicago Blackhawks. There's something special happening in Montreal, and while they've already exceeded expectations, is it too farfetched to expect the conquering of another formidable peak?
Why should you bet against the Capitals?
Nobody can blame the Washington Capitals for taking their eye off the proverbial puck. With the Metropolitan Division long since wrapped up, the collective focus turned to their captain's pursuit of unparalleled greatness. Since March 25, the Caps are tied with fellow Stanley Cup odds contenders the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers for the fourth-worst point percentage (.409).
None of those games had any bearing on where they would finish, aside from ensuring they would avoid the Presidents' Trophy and its well-documented curse. That said, can they simply flick the switch in the postseason and recapture their scintillating best?
Possibly, but I'm willing to take a flier on the flying Canadiens.
Prediction: Canadiens' first-round victory ⭐⭐⭐⭐
👉 Best odds for Canadiens victory: +260 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 27.78%
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🎯 P3 Edmonton Oilers 🛢️ vs. P2 Los Angeles Kings 👑
Why should you back the Kings?
Fourth time's a charm, anyone?
The Kings have lost three playoff series in a row to the Oilers, but this version of Los Angeles is palpably superior. With a 31-5-4 record, the Kings were the best home team during the regular season. They've also been the best team in the NHL since March 8, with a 17-4-0 record in that span.
The Kings are not only bursting with confidence, but they also have a clean bill of health. And they have superior goaltender, with Darcy Kuemper enjoying the best season of his career. As a mere snapshot of his success, Kuemper allowed more than two goals once in his last 15 starts.
Despite being the higher seed, the Kings have longer Stanley Cup odds.
Why should you bet against the Oilers?
The Oilers were my pick to win the Stanley Cup for a large portion of the regular season. While Connor McDavid is capable of otherworldly feats, dragging his banged up, inconsistent team to the Promised Land seems unfeasible, even for him.
Edmonton stumbles into the postseason with more questions than a high school multiple choice test. Will they get the erratic Stuart Skinner or the netminder who stole a few games en route to last year's Stanley Cup Final.
Even if Skinner holds his own, the Oilers must make do without Mattias Ekholm, their top shutdown defenseman. His absence represents the primary reason I can no longer back them to win the Cup. Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and Jake Walman should return for Game 1, and given their elite caliber, I don't expect a drop off in play.
However, Trent Frederic's recovery has thus far been a disaster, and the jury is out on whether he'll play in Game 1 or 2. Evander Kane could feature at some point, but he hasn't played since last season's Stanley Cup Final. Meanwhile, Troy Stecher left Sunday's game, and we're yet to hear about his Game 1 status.
Unless McDavid and Draisaitl take over the series, an entirely possible outcome, I can't see them overcoming so many debilitating impediments.
Prediction: Kings' first-round victory ⭐⭐⭐
👉 Best odds for Kings victory: +115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 46.51%
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🧠 Stanley Cup predictions, expert picks
- Stanley Cup odds and matchups confirmed: Which teams have the advantage?
- Stats and trends to base your NHL picks and predictions on
- Best Round 1 underdog, long-shot picks
- Stanley Cup odds
- Stanley Cup betting guide
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