Rangers vs. Capitals Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's NHL Game
While few are surprised by the New York Rangers' early torrid pace, the Washington Capitals 5-2 record has raised more eyebrows than Australian Rachael "Raygun" Gunn's breakdance routine during the recent Olympics.
Far less surprising are the Rangers' Stanley Cup odds. The 6-1-1 Blueshirts have the Eastern Conference's best points percentage (.813) and enter Tuesday's contest as the clear favorites.
The Capitals, who boast the conference's third-best points percentage (.714), have lost five in a row to the Rangers, including a four-game sweep in the first round of last season's playoffs.
Our Rangers vs. Capitals prediction sources the best value while offering tasty Artemi Panarin and Alexis Lafreniere prop bets.
Rangers vs. Capitals prediction
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
My best bet: Under 6.5 goals and Rangers ML ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +170 via Betway | Implied probability: 37.04%
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Let me first start by saying I'd prefer to lock in separate wagers for the Rangers moneyline and Under 6.5 goals. Unfortunately, the Rangers' -150 moneyline odds and standalone -150 odds for the Under don't offer enough value.
Why the Under is the best play
Including April's first-round playoff series, seven of the previous eight games featuring the Rangers and Capitals had six or fewer goals. The exception had seven goals, barely breaking through the Under/Over barrier.
Three of the four regular-season head-to-heads in 2023-24 had five goals or fewer.
It might be a record, but it's taken me over 200 words to mention Igor Shesterkin, who knows as much about keeping the puck out as the Dalai Lama about all things spiritual.
He has allowed two or fewer in three of the last four and four of six to start the season. He has a 1.5 goals against average in his previous six against the Caps, which included four games of conceding just one.
The Rangers rested their Vezina Trophy odds front-runner against Anaheim on Saturday, presumably readying him for this pivotal Eastern Conference clash.
While Shesterkin offers the best defense of the Under, there is a spectrum of other supporting reasons: Logan Thompson, the Caps' probable starter, performed well in his last outing against the Rangers, turning aside 29 of 30 shots. The Caps struggle to create concerted offensive pressure and have the seventh-fewest expected goals (15.18).
On the flip side, they are excellent defensively and have conceded the second-fewest expected goals against (12.31).
The Rangers, one of the league's best defensive teams, usually offer Shesterkin more support than a pair of Dr. Scholl's orthotics. The following stats support that assertion: tied for the second-fewest goal against (2), the fewest goals against per 60 minutes (1.55), and the 10th-fewest expected goals against (16.98)
Why the Rangers should win
New York matches up well against Washington. While they both earned two wins in last season's four head-to-heads, the Rangers have won five in a row.
The Blueshirts are better in both ends of the rink. They rank among the top 10 in the following categories: third-most goals per game (4.25), ninth-best power play (25%), fifth-best penalty kill (88%), best goals percentage (69.7), second-best expected goals percentage (58.15), fourth-most expected goals (23.59), third-best goals against above expected (6.61), sixth-best goals differential above expected (6.39) and the seventh-best shooting percentage (10.95%).
Plus, Artemi Panarin is scorching hot, playing like a Hart Trophy odds front-runner.
A winning $10 bet will profit $17.
Rangers vs. Capitals player prop bet
NHL picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change.
Artemi Panarin prop bet: Over 3.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -120 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.55%
Panarin has 15 points in eight games and is tied for sixth among all skaters. The odds for him to notch one point or an assist are too short.
However, the -120 odds for at least four shots offer decent value. Panarin has at least four shots in four of the last five games and usually plays well against Washington. A winning $10 bet will yield an $8.33 profit.
Alexis Lafreniere prop bet: Over 2.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -135 via Betway | Implied probability: 57.45%
Lafreniere isn't a shot-producing machine by any measure. However, he consistently lets it fly against the Caps.
He has at least three shots in the previous four against Washington, including five in the last one. He also scored two goals in that game. A winning $10 bet will profit $7.41.
Rangers vs. Capitals live odds & info
- When: Tuesday, Oct. 29
- Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Capital One Arena (Washington)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: Rangers (-150 via Betway)
Rangers-Capitals predictions made Tuesday at 11 a.m. ET.
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