Senators vs. Maple Leafs NHL Picks, Predictions: Can Senators Pull Off Upset in Battle of Ontario?
It’s the first Hockey Night in Canada matchup during the 2022-2023 NHL season as the Ottawa Senators head to Toronto to take on the Maple Leafs. Let's examine the game with our Senators-Maple Leafs picks.
The Maple Leafs hope to secure their second win of the season at home while the Senators are searching for the club's first victory.
Ottawa is fresh off a very active offseason after adding big-name players like Claude Giroux and Alex Debrincat to upgrade the team's offense. And the Maple Leafs revamped their team between the pipes while plugging in former Senator Matt Murray.
Here are my NHL picks and predictions for Saturday night’s Senators-Maple Leafs game (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5 scale).
Senators vs. Maple Leafs Game Info
Date/Time: Thursday, Oct. 15, 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN+
Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
Senators vs. Maple Leafs Analysis
The Maple Leafs are the favorites at all sportsbooks, ranging from –230 at DraftKings and FanDuel to -250 through BetMGM.
The total is set at 6.5 at BetMGM, but it's 7 at all other major books. Both cash and tickets are favoring Toronto, with 99% of the cash and 95% of tickets going toward the Leafs.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs Picks
Senators vs. Maple Leafs ML Pick
Senators (+200) ★★
Despite sportsbooks heavily favoring the Leafs, goaltending is rather wishy-washy on both sides of the ice.
The Leafs have yet to announce their starting goalie after Murray suffered an injury in practice this morning. Even with all the talent on the Leafs’ roster, they're rolling with two rather subpar goalies in Murray and Ilya Samsonov. Samsonov did get the win versus the Capitals on Thursday, but he only faced 26 shots. Meanwhile, Murray endured a tough debut as a Maple Leaf, making just 19 saves on 23 shots against the Montreal Canadiens.
Senators starting goalie Cam Talbot is still injured, so Anton Forsberg will be in the crease again. Forsberg wasn’t the issue during Ottawa’s loss to the Buffalo Sabres. He made 34 saves while allowing just two goals. But the Senators scored only once.
The Senators’ offense has vastly improved since 2021-22. Still, the Leafs averaged 3.80 goals per game last season while boasting the league's best power play.
We don’t know what to expect yet out of this Ottawa team, but Toronto's goaltending should give the Senators a good chance to show off their offensive upgrades. Take the Senators, especially at plus money.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs O/U Pick
Over 7 goals (+110) ★★★★
This isn’t exactly expected to be a goaltending showdown. Forsberg has posted a 3.02 goals-against average over 103 NHL games, and Murray has produced a 3.22 GAA over 47 contests across the past two seasons. Samsonov played well against the Capitals, but he also didn’t face many shots, and the Senators’ lineup could do a lot of damage.
Ottawa’s offense is well-positioned to improve in 2022-23, and we know what Toronto can do offensively. Take the Over in this contest.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs Prop Pick
DeBrincat anytime goal (+205 via FanDuel) ★★★
Debrincat recorded seven shots against the Buffalo Sabres during his debut as a Senator. He didn't score, but Debrincat was certainly aggressive.
He instantly upgrades any offense, and Debrincat is on an especially lethal second line with Claude Giroux and Josh Norris. The three of them can make a lot happen, and it’s only a matter of time before they really start clicking.
DeBrincat will get a good opportunity to notch his first goal with Ottawa on Saturday, especially against Toronto's poor goaltending.
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Senators-Maple Leafs picks made 10/15/2022 at 1:26 p.m. ET.
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