Stanley Cup Odds Ahead of the Playoffs: Stats, Trends to Base Your NHL Picks & Predictions On
It's the time of the year when you hope your Stanley Cup futures pick - or picks - will be a permanent fixture throughout the NHL playoffs, similar to the imprint of your backside on the couch while tuned into the best show on Earth.
In a sports world saturated with analytics, we're here to help you decide which stats to base your Stanley Cup predictions on ahead of the NHL postseason.
With the Stanley Cup odds acting as your North Star, I found some commonalities and trends several Cup-winning teams excelled at over the past few seasons and utilized them to showcase where the favorites stand in the statistical pecking order.
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🔢 Stats to base your Stanley Cup predictions on
I found commonalities among the Stanley Cup winners from the past four seasons - the Tampa Bay Lightning, Colorado Avalanche, Vegas Golden Knights, and Florida Panthers. The below 10 stats are ranked in descending order, with scoring first win % as the most important.
No Cup-winning team finished with a scoring first win % ranking below fourth.
It turns out the 2021-22 Stanley Cup-winning Golden Knights weren't a statistically sound team. While I'm sure nobody in Sin City could care less about the analytics after their team lifted the Holy Grail in its sixth season, they had the worst ranking in four of 10 categories.
The 2021-22 Avalanche is as close to a flawless statistical team as you'll find. They didn't finish outside the top 10 in any of the featured categories, finishing in the top five six times.
| Stat | Lightning (2020-21) | Avalanche (2021-22) | Golden Knights (2022-23) | Panthers (2023-24) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scoring first win % rank | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 3rd |
| One-goal game win % | 3rd | 6th | T-5th | 7th |
| Win % leading after first period | T-1st | 3rd | 6th | 15th |
| Away point % | 11th | 10th | T-2nd | 2nd |
| PDO | 12th | 4th | 3rd | 8th |
| Win % trailing after first period | 1st | 5th | 19th | 7th |
| Win % trailing first | 5th | 8th | 14th | 4th |
| Goals % | 12th | 5th | 11th | 4th |
| Corsi % | 9th | 6th | 22nd | 2nd |
| Home point % | 8th | 1st | T-12th | 11th |
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📈 Which 2025 Stanley Cup odds favorites should you bet on?
Here is how the 10 Stanley Cup odds favorites via our best sports betting apps fare from the analytics mentioned above. While there are various other factors to consider, these stats provide a solid baseline when deciphering which team(s) to put your hard-earned money behind.
| Stat | DAL | FLA | COL | VGK | EDM | WSH | WPG | TBL | CAR | TOR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scoring first win % rank | T-13th | T-4th | 15th | 19th | 12th | T-6th | T-1st | 10th | 3rd | T-4th |
| One-goal game win % | 10th | 3rd | 6th | 24th | 7th | T-11th | 2nd | 30th | 9th | 1st |
| Win % leading after first period | 11th | 3rd | T-5th | T-16th | 15th | 13th | 1st | T-9th | 12th | 2nd |
| Away point % | T-5th | 15th | 10th | T-5th | 9th | 1st | 3rd | 16th | T-21st | 2nd |
| PDO | 4th | 23rd | 24th | 11th | 31st | 7th | 2nd | 1st | 27th | 5th |
| Win % trailing after first period | 20th | 22nd | 2nd | 5th | 3rd | 18th | T-9th | 6th | 19th | 1st |
| Win % allowing first goal | T-1st | 13th | T-9th | T-1st | 8th | 5th | 3rd | 12th | 24th | 4th |
| Goals % | 6th | 9th | 11th | 8th | 18th | 5th | 2nd | 3rd | 12th | 4th |
| Corsi % | 18th | 2nd | 4th | 9th | 3rd | 10th | 15th | 13th | 1st | 29th |
| Home point % | 6th | 10th | 11th | 5th | 13th | 7th | 2nd | 4th | 3rd | 12th |
📝 Coles notes for the Stanley Cup odds favorites
- While I'm not suggesting you head directly to one of our best sportsbooks and back the Toronto Maple Leafs or Winnipeg Jets, they are the most impressive teams, statistically speaking
- Ranking 15th or lower in three categories, the Oilers are the worst statistical team of the 10 favorites
- The Maple Leafs are the best at overturning one-goal deficits, whether it be after the first period or due to conceding first
- The Jets, Hurricanes, Maple Leafs, and Panthers are the cream of the crop in scoring first win %, the most important stat based on the last four Stanley Cup winners
- The Lightning are the third-worst team in the league in one-goal games, an incredibly worrying statistic entering the playoffs, where those situations arise more frequently than Craig Berube's blood pressure
🧠 Stanley Cup playoffs predictions, expert picks
- Stanley Cup odds and matchups confirmed: Which teams have the advantage?
- Stats and trends to base your NHL picks and predictions on
- Best Round 1 underdog, long-shot picks
- Stanley Cup odds
- Stanley Cup betting guide
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