Stanley Cup Odds & Round 1 Matchups Confirmed: Which Teams Have the Advantage in Round 1?

The Montreal Canadiens emphatically placed the last piece in the first-round puzzle as we analyze the Round 1 matchups, offering insight regarding which teams have the advantage.

Gary Pearson

Last updated: April 17, 2025 12:28 AM EDT • 9 min read

Stanley Cup Odds & Round 1 Matchups Confirmed: Which Teams Have Round 1 Advantage? — Pictured: Montreal Canadiens center Nick Suzuki celebrates after his goal against the Carolina Hurricanes. Photo by David Kirouac via Imagn Images

The Montreal Canadiens, Minnesota Wild, and St. Louis Blues took care of business in the season's final game, breaking Calgary and Columbus hearts in the process.

It's a harsh reality for those cities, but now we can focus on the first round of the playoffs, which start on Saturday.

We've analyzed the Stanley Cup odds and Round 1 matchups, offering insight into which teams have the advantage entering the opening round.

🏆 Live Stanley Cup odds

Stanley Cup odds via our best sports betting sites, updated in real time.

Western Conference Round 1 matchups

Stanley Cup odds via FanDuel.

C2 Dallas Stars ⭐ (+850) vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche ⛰️ (+800)
P3 Oilers 🛢️ (+1000) vs. P2 Kings 👑 (+2000)
WC2 Blues 🎵 (+5000) vs. vs. C1 Jets ✈️ (+950)
Wild (+4100) 🐻 vs. P1 Golden Knights ♞ (+750)

C2 Dallas Stars ⭐ (+850) vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche ⛰️ (+800)

Stanley Cup Odds & Round 1 Matchups: Which Teams Have the First Round Advantage? — Pictured: Nathan MacKinnon against the Dallas Stars. Photo by Javier Vicencio via Imagn Images.

While everyone wants to see it, most would prefer the matchup between the Stanley Cup odds favorite Dallas Stars and the third-favorite Colorado Avalanche to occur in a later round.

Such is life in Gary Bettman's division-focused first-round setup.

It's been a bad news week for the Stars, who've lost five in a row, one of which catastrophically. The Vancouver Canucks overcame a three-goal deficit in the final minute in Dallas, the first time that's ever happened. And there's a good chance Miro Heiskanen won't be available at least for the early part of the first round.

If Gabriel Landeskog becomes available for the playoffs, which he's trending toward, I give the slender advantage to the Avs, who are looking to vanquish the Stars for the first time in the last three playoff meetings.

Landeskog would only contribute a few minutes on the fourth line, but any Landeskog is better than none. Plus, what a morale boost that would provide his teammates.

Who has the advantage? Avalanche
👉 Best odds for Avs victory: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%

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P3 Oilers 🛢️ (+1000) vs. P2 Kings 👑 (+2000)

If you didn't get enough from the last three years of first-round playoff meetings between the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers, you'll be thrilled they're about to clash again.

The Kings walked all over an Oilers team devoid of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on Monday, ensuring they will host the Oilers at Crypto.com Arena in four of seven contests.

The Pacific Division rivals have been on opposing trajectories for some time, with the Kings soaring and the Oilers fading faster than Mattias Ekholm's comeback bid. Ekholm is expected to miss the playoffs, an irrevocably damaging loss to the Oilers' Stanley Cup aspirations.

Without Ekholm, I fear the Oilers will fall short of their ultimate goal, but will they have enough to get past the Kings in a fourth straight playoffs?

There's also Darcy Kuemper to consider. The Kings' netminder has enjoyed a sensational season, allowing more than two goals only once in the last 15 games. That's a lot for the Oilers to overcome.

However, if McDavid turns it on - which it appears he will - and Draisaitl returns to the lineup without missing a step, anything is possible. While the Kings have the advantage on paper and due to their blistering form, I cannot discount a focused and motivated McDavid. I'm backing the Oilers to win despite the Kings having the perceived advantage.

Who has the advantage? Kings
👉 Best odds for Kings victory: +115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 46.51%

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WC2 Blues 🎵 (+5000) vs. vs. C1 Jets ✈️ (+950)

This is the season the Winnipeg Jets will advance past the first round. While the jury is still out on whether they can vanquish the Presidents' Trophy curse and win the Cup, the Jets should get past the Blues in six games. They won two of three games against the Blues this season, including a 3-1 win at home to halt the Blues' 12-game win streak.

The Blues were one of the best teams down the stretch but faded in the last four games, barely holding off the Calgary Flames' valiant challenge. While the Blues still offer a daunting proposition, the Jets are built for this matchup, and I expect Connor Hellebuyck to exercise his first-round demons from last year's playoffs.

The Jets also pack a punch when looking at the stats and trends to base your NHL picks and predictions on.

Who has the advantage? Jets
👉 Best odds for Jets victory: -215 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 68.25%

Wild 🐻 (+4100) vs. P1 Golden Knights ♞ (+750)

The Wild did what they had to down the stretch to hold off the Flames, albeit barely. There's no question they have a new lease on life with the recent return of Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek. Since those big guns returned, they're 3-1. However, they'll run into an immovable force in the Golden Knights.

Vegas had the fifth-best home point percentage in the regular season and won all three against the Wild, outscoring them 12-4. They beat the Wild twice with Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek in the lineup. The Golden Knights match up well with the Wild, and I expect them to prevail in five or six games.

Who has the advantage? Golden Knights
👉 Best odds for Jets victory: -235 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 70.15%

Eastern Conference Round 1 matchups

M2 Hurricanes 🌪️ (+600) vs. M3 Devils 😈 (+3700)
A3 Panthers 🐈 (+750) vs. A2 Lightning 🌩️ (+1200)
WC1 Senators 🗡️ (+3600) vs. A1 Maple Leafs 🍁 (+1400)
WC2 Canadiens 🍁 (+9000) vs. M1 Capitals 🏛️ (+1100)

M2 Hurricanes 🌪️ (+600) vs. M3 Devils 😈 (+3700)

I have as much faith in the New Jersey Devils as I do in my ability not to pass out after a 10 kilometer run in the searing heat. The Devils have looked abysmal for most of the second half, even before they lost their star and leading score Jack Hughes to a season-ending injury.

While I don't see the Hurricanes making a Stanley Cup run, they should have more than enough to dispose of a Devils team that has become completely estranged from their evil side.

Who has the advantage? Hurricanes
👉 Best odds for Hurricanes victory: -245 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 71.01%

WC2 Canadiens 🍁 (+9000) vs. M1 Capitals 🏛️ (+1100)

You might think I've gone a bit haywire, but the first-round matchup between the Montreal Canadiens and Washington Capitals has upset written all over it. The Caps have been in a tailspin ever since the team became preoccupied (and rightly so) with their captain breaking the all-time goals record.

Meanwhile, the Habs have been playing playoff hockey since the 4 Nations Face-Off break, with Nick Suzuki scoring at will during that timeframe. He has 37 points in 26 games since Feb. 22, the fourth most.

Who has the advantage? Canadiens
👉 Best odds for Canadiens victory: +220 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 31.25%

WC1 Senators 🗡️ (+3600) vs. A1 Maple Leafs 🍁 (+1400)

It's been 21 long years since the last Battle of Ontario playoff series. While the Senators won all three regular-season battles by a combined 9-3, I'm picking the Maple Leafs to prevail.

The Sens have been as much my bogey team as they have the Maple Leafs. However, I have faith in what Craig Berube brings to the table in the playoffs. He has instilled a more defensively responsible and accountable culture, which should help them get over the Senators hump.

Also, Chris Tanev, pivotal to the Buds' success, is healthy and blocking more shots than a 10-foot wall.

Who has the advantage? Maple Leafs
👉 Best odds for Maple Leafs victory: -172 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 63.24%

A3 Panthers 🐈 (+750) vs. A2 Lightning 🌩️ (+1200)

The Battle of the Sunshine State will result in a different outcome this time, with the Tampa Bay Lightning moving on to the second round. Like fellow finalists, the Oilers in the West, I feel there's too much uncertainty surrounding the defending Cup champion Panthers.

We're still unsure of when Matthew Tkachuk will return. And how effective will he be in his first few games back? Aaron Ekblad, who will have missed 20 games, won't feature until Game 3.

While a top-of-the-line defenseman, stepping into a playoff series is challenging enough after such a long hiatus. Now, multiply that difficulty level by about 10 when facing Nikita Kucherov and his ruthless assassins, Jake Guentzel and Brayden Point.

Who has the advantage? Lightning
👉 Best odds for Lightning victory: -102 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.50%

🧠 Stanley Cup predictions, expert picks

❓Stanley Cup, playoffs FAQs

Who is the Stanley Cup Final favorite?

The Carolina Hurricanes are the 2025 Stanley Cup odds favorites at FanDuel. Their best odds stand at +600, representing an implied win probability of 14.29%, according to our odds converter.

Who won the Stanley Cup last year?

The Panthers defeated the Oilers in seven games, winning 2-1 in Game 7 on home ice to claim the Stanley Cup last year.

When do the NHL playoffs start?

The NHL regular season ends Thursday April 17. The playoffs should start on Saturday, April 20.

When does the Stanley Cup Final start?

The 2024 Stanley Cup Final began Saturday, June 8 and finished on June 24. Those are rough dates to expect the 205 final to be played.

When was the last back-to-back Stanley Cup winner?

The Tampa Bay Lightning won back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021. Previously, the Pittsburgh Penguins won it in 2016 and 2017, and the Detroit Red Wings in 1996 and 1997.

When was the last Stanley Cup three-peat?

The New York Islanders were the last team to win the Stanley Cup in three successive seasons. They won four in a row from 1980 to 1983.

NHL betting odds pages

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Written By:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.