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Stars vs. Oilers Predictions & Odds: Monday's Game 3 Western Conference Final Expert Picks

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: May 27, 2024 5:50 PM EDT • 4 min 9 sec read.

The Dallas Stars come into the lion's den in Edmonton for Game 3 on Monday after leveling the series at one game apiece on Saturday, and we have you covered with our Stars vs. Oilers predictions and expert picks based on the best NHL odds. 

Despite a sluggish start in the first 20 minutes, the Dallas Stars showcased their superior skills in a decisive 3-1 victory over the Edmonton Oilers in Game 2.

With the series tied at 1-1, Game 3 will take place on Monday at 8 p.m. ET at Rogers Place in Edmonton. The series now shifts to a best-of-five format, with Edmonton holding home-ice advantage.

The Oilers, favored at home for Game 3, will put their 4-2 home record to the test against the playoffs' best road team. The Stars boast a 5-1 road record this postseason, including a dominant 3-0 whitewash of the Avalanche in Colorado.

According to the latest Stanley Cup odds, these teams are neck-and-neck in the race to escape the Western Conference Final and compete for Lord Stanley's Cup.

Here are our best Stars vs. Rangers predictions and NHL picks (odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Stars vs. Oilers Game 3 expert picks

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Stars vs. Oilers predictions for Monday

Joe Pavelski Under 0.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Everyone loves a story of athletes defying, or at least overcoming, the sands of time. This is not one of those feel-good anecdotes. Entering the 2024 postseason, Pavelski scored 0.76 points per game in 182 contests. The 39-year-old, tied for the second-oldest active NHLer, has four points in 15 contests, 12 resulting in giant-sized ostrich eggs. If those stats come as a surprise, watch him closely in Game 3.

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The grizzled and weathered veteran is about as far off the pace as the San Jose Sharks were from a playoff spot. His painful-to-watch on-ice issues haven't gone unnoticed, with head coach Peter DeBoer cutting his ice time to 14:03 in Game 2, the lowest of the postseason and 4:15 less than his 18:17 average. He's also been demoted to the second power-play unit. At -135, DraftKings offers the best value for Pavelski to be held off the scoresheet in Game 3, implying a 57.45% probability. A $10 winning bet will pay a profit of $7.41. 

Best odds: -135 via DraftKings

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Leon Draisaitl Over 1.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

While scoring two points against the Dallas Stars is more challenging than eating four burgers without repercussions, I'm making an exception for Leon Draisaitl. Just ask Hart Trophy favorite Nathan MacKinnon, who notched two points in two of six games against the Stars. That 33% two-point success rate feels like a realistic projection for Draisaitl, who has one point in two games against Dallas after exploding for 14 versus the Vancouver Canucks.

Draisaitl has 12 points in six contests at Rogers Place and, with the last change, should get a slightly more advantageous matchup. With 12 of Draisaitl's 25 points coming on the man advantage, the Stars have all but negated that option by taking only three penalties in the first two games. His play has him positioned among the top contenders by the 2024 Conn Smythe Trophy odds.

Edmonton should create a few more chances on home ice, providing additional power-play opportunities or facilitating an extra morsel of open ice. Plus, I don't have the willpower to pass up the rare chance to lock him in at +140. Those odds imply a 41.67% probability, and a $10 bet pays a profit of $14 if it hits. 

Best odds: +140 via DraftKings

Tyler Seguin Over 2.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Unlike old-timer colleague Pavelski, Tyler Seguin is playing some of his best hockey. Like Harrison Butker's prominence in the recent news cycle, Seguin was all over the ice in Games 1 and 2. He scored both Stars' goals in the opener on six shots and fired four on goal in Game 3. Seguin is a shoot-first kind of guy and will look for every opportunity to do so in Game 3.

He has at least three shots in 11 of 15 games and, to Pavelski's chagrin, has been promoted to the top power-play unit. At -110, FanDuel offers the best value. Those odds imply a 52.38% probability, and a $10 bet will pay a profit of $9.09 if it hits. 

Best odds: -110 via FanDuel

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Evan Bouchard Over 0.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Evan Bouchard has at least one apple in five of six home encounters and 16 in 14 playoff contests. He was held off the scoresheet in Game 2 for the third time in the postseason. Bouchard rebounded after being held scoreless with one and two assists, respectively. The Oilers should get more offensive zone time at home, allowing Bouchard to do what he does best. 

Bouchard has tallied at least one helper in 10 of 14 contests. The -140 odds imply a 58.33% probability, and a $10 winning bet pays a profit of $7.14. 

Best odds: -140 via DraftKings

Stars vs. Oilers Game 3 info & odds

  • When: Monday, May 27
  • Puck drop: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Rogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta
  • How to watch: TNT, Sportsnet
  • Favorite: Oilers (-125 via BetMGM)

Stars-Oilers predictions made Sunday at 10 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.