Sweden vs. USA Prediction, Picks & Odds Tonight: 4 Nations Face-Off Preview

The complexion of tonight's game between Sweden and USA has taken a turn with Canada's earlier victory over Finland. 

Aside from national pride, there's nothing to play for in tonight's final round-robin game at TD Garden in Boston (8 p.m. ET, TNT). Regardless of what happens, the 4 Nations Face-Off odds favorite Team USA will take on Canada in Thursday's final. 

So, how will that earlier result impact our Sweden vs. USA prediction and picks? 

Sweden vs. USA prediction tonight

At the time of this article's first iteration, Team USA were -160 favorites on the 3-way moneyline. On the back of the Canada victory, those odds have since lengthened to -125. It's easy to see why that happened, as Sweden will no longer be as aggressive down the stretch if things are close.

That result earlier today also flipped my view on tonight's contest, as I'm now backing Sweden to cover the puck line (+1.5).

How will Canada's win over Finland impact Sweden vs. USA?

Because of Canada's win earlier today, Sweden won't have to pull their netminder if the game is tied, as there's no consequence of going into overtime. Regardless of the outcome, their tournament will end after tonight's contest. So, the Three Crowns will be more relaxed and can play loose without taking risks and pushing the envelope. 

That's why I'm pivoting positions hours before game time, backing the Swedes to cover the +1.5 puck line. Admittedly, the -175 odds are awfully short, but given the latest out of Boston, it's the bet I feel most confident about. Those odds were -150 before Canada's 5-3 win over Finland. 

I still like America to win in regulation, just not as much as I did beforehand. A one-goal victory would result in both bets paying out, so I'm hoping for that outcome.

However, I'm the first to admit that the probability of this game going to overtime skyrocketed after the earlier result. While the outcome of tonight's game may change due to the earlier result, it shouldn't have much of an impact on our Sweden vs. USA player prop picks. 

Latest Sweden vs. USA bet

• Sweden vs. USA game pick: Sweden +1.5 (-175 via Betway)
• Best odds: -175 via Betway | Implied probability: 63.64%

Sweden vs. USA original predictions for Monday

Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

• Sweden vs. USA game pick: USA 3-way ML (-160 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐
• Sweden vs. USA Over/Under pick: Over 5.5 goals (-120 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐

Who will win Sweden vs. USA?

USA 3-way ML ⭐⭐⭐

It's another time when I don't love the odds, but here we are again. With a spot in Thursday's final already secured after an exhilarating, emotion-fueled contest, this isn't the ideal scenario for the 4 Nations Face-Off odds favorites.

There's the distinct chance of a letdown for the Americans. However, the situation is desperate for Sweden, a team that must win in regulation to get any chance of making the final.

While that level of desperation can propel the Three Crowns, it can also force their hand too much. 

For that reason, there's a higher likelihood of Team USA finishing off the Swedes in regulation.

If the game is tied down the stretch, expect Sweden head coach Sam Hallam to pull his goaltender. An overtime win will not suffice, so the Swedes will go out with guns blazing. 

The Americans have been superb defensively in front of the indomitable Connor Hellebuyck. That combination should be enough for them to win a third straight, even if Matthew Tkachuk doesn't play, which is probable given the circumstances. 

This is a three-star play due to the longer odds, and a winning $10 bet will profit $6.25. 

Best odds: -160 via Betway | Implied probability: 61.54%

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What will be the score of Sweden vs. USA?

Over 5.5 goals ⭐⭐⭐

I'm backing the Over due to the circumstances.

There's a higher likelihood of goals given Sweden's win-or-go-home situation. It should be a close game, and the Swedes will pour it on in the third if the contest is tied or they're down by a goal. That will provide an ideal opportunity for Team USA to counter and score on the break. 

Unless Sweden is ahead down the stretch, I'm envisioning the opportunity for at least one empty-net goal for the hosts, if not more. A $10 bet will lead to a $8.33 profit if there are at least six goals. Look for the USA to win 4-2. 

Best odds: -120 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.55%

Sweden vs. USA odds

Odds via Betway.

Sweden vs. USA rosters

Here are the rosters for Monday's 4 Nations Face-Off Sweden vs. USA matchup.

When is Sweden vs. USA?

• When: Monday, Feb. 17
• Puck drop: 8 p.m. ET
• Where: TD Garden (Boston)
• How to watch: ABC, Sportsnet
• Favorite: USA (-236 via Betway)

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