Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds & Predictions 2025: Will Chestnut Reclaim July 4 Crown?
Joey Chestnut is officially back in the 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, but he isn't the only former champion returning to Coney Island on July 4.
Chestnut is priced as the -2000 betting favorite by the latest hot dog eating contest odds to reclaim the Mustard Belt after he was banned from last year's event. He'll face a stiff test from reigning winner Patrick Bertoletti, who downed 58 hot dogs and buns last year to end Chestnut's eight-year run as champion.
👉 MORE: Patrick Bertoletti on Joey Chestnut, Fame & Motivation for 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest
🌭 Who will win Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest 2025?
Here are the latest odds via Caesars to win the 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest at Coney Island on July 4. Use our exclusive Caesars promo code to turn a $1 bet into 10 free 100% profit boosts.
| Competitor | Odds (Caesar) | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Chestnut | -2000 | $0.50 |
| Patrick Bertoletti | +1600 | $160 |
| Geoffrey Esper | +1600 | $160 |
| James Webb | +2000 | $200 |
| Any other eater | +3000 | $300 |
| Nick Wehry | +4000 | $400 |
| Derek Hendrickson | +8000 | $800 |
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To nobody's surprise, Chestnut opened as the overwhelming favorite to win this year's hot dog eating contest after his banishment from the event last year due to a conflicting sponsorship deal with Impossible Foods. He's being given a 95.24% chance that he'll win in his return to Coney Island.
By comparison, Bertoletti is catching less than a 6% implied probability to repeat after he captured his first Mustard Belt last year. While Chestnut will undoubtedly close as the favorite, I'd expect these prices to shift further in Bertoletti's favor as we see more of our best sports betting sites releasing their early odds.
🏆 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest favorites
While Chestnut is the runaway favorite to win this event, he isn't the only competitive eater with his eyes on the Mustard Belt.
Here's a look at the top contenders to win this year's July 4 spectacle:
🌭 Joey Chestnut
The greatest competitive eater in the history of Major League Eating, Chestnut is no stranger to this event having won it 16 times before - including every year from 2016 to 2023 before he was banned last year.
He also set the all-time record of 76 hot dogs and buns (HDB) back in 2021, though that total dropped to 63 and 62 the following two years before missing last year's event. That said, he set a new world record (83) in an unofficial event on Netflix, but the door still feels open in a way it hasn't over the last decade.
🌭 Patrick Bertoletti
Bertoletti seized his opportunity last year by wolfing down 58 hot dogs and buns - becoming the first men's champion besides Chestnut since 2015 and just the third to ever hit that mark.
His previous best was 55 HDB in 2009, and as he told us in an exclusive interview last year, he wasn't sure if he'd ever get back to that point. But after adapting his style to compensate for a decline in eating speed, he produced his best finish yet and could have more in store this year.
🌭 Geoffrey Esper
Esper was the favorite entering last year's event after three consecutive runner-up finishes to Chestnut, briefly touching -200 before settling at even money.
He did set a new personal best last year with 53 HDB, but that was still five short of Bertoletti's mark and well below what most sportsbooks expect Chestnut to clear in his return to the event. Maybe Esper has another gear in him, but he'll need it to keep pace with the top two in the field.
💰 More hot dog prop bets: O/U, winner without Chestnut
For those interested in betting on this event but don't want to pay the price for Chestnut (or take a shot on a surprise winner), you're in luck.
Caesars has posted Over/Under markets for six of the top competitors in the men's event, as well as presumptive winner Miki Sudo on the women's side. You can also bet on the winner of the event outside of Chestnut.
↕️ Over/Under hot dogs eaten
| Competitor | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Chestnut | Over 70.5 (-115) | Under 70.5 (-115) |
| Geoffrey Esper | Over 50.5 (-105) | Under 50.5 (-125) |
| Patrick Bertoletti | Over 50.5 (-115) | Under 50.5 (-115) |
| James Webb | Over 49.5 (-115) | Under 49.5 (-115) |
| Nick Wehry | Over 46.5 (-115) | Under 46.5 (-115) |
| Miki Sudo | Over 44.5 (-115) | Under 44.5 (-115) |
| Derek Hendrickson | Over 32.5 (-115) | Under 32.5 (-115) |
🏅 Winner without Chestnut
| Competitor | Odds (Caesar) | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Bertoletti | +190 | $19 |
| Geoffrey Esper | +190 | $19 |
| James Webb | +220 | $22 |
| Nick Wehry | +1100 | $110 |
| Any other eater | +1300 | $130 |
🔮 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest prediction & best bet
Look, let's face the reality of the situation: even last year's winner said that he wouldn't bet on himself to beat Chestnut in this year's event. So if you're looking to bet on anyone else in the outright market, you can probably save the wager.
But are we sure it's so ironclad? After all, Chestnut's totals dipped in each of his last two official contests, and he'll be 41 for this year's event. I'm skeptical that he has a 95% chance to win, as the odds imply, especially with Bertoletti posting one of the best totals we've ever seen in the contest last year.
I love the value on Bertoletti to finish with a better total than anyone outside of Chestnut, especially at those +190 odds. But the best bet on the board is Over 50.5 hot dogs. He crushed 58 hot dogs last year and told SBR last week that he's on pace with that total this year - bet this number while you still can.
✅ Best bet: Patrick Bertoletti Over 50.5 hot dogs (-115)
🏆 Past Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest winners
| Year | Men's winner | Hot dogs | Women's winner | Hot dogs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Patrick Bertoletti | 58 | Mike Sudo | 51 |
| 2023 | Joey Chestnut | 62 | Miki Sudo | 39.5 |
| 2022 | Joey Chestnut | 63 | Miki Sudo | 40 |
| 2021 | Joey Chestnut | 76 | Michelle Lesco | 30.75 |
| 2020 | Joey Chestnut | 75 | Miki Sudo | 48.5 |
| 2019 | Joey Chestnut | 71 | Miki Sudo | 31 |
| 2018 | Joey Chestnut | 74 | Miki Sudo | 37 |
| 2017 | Joey Chestnut | 72 | Miki Sudo | 41 |
| 2016 | Joey Chestnut | 70 | Miki Sudo | 38.5 |
| 2015 | Matt Stonie | 62 | Miki Sudo | 38 |
| 2014 | Joey Chestnut | 61 | Miki Sudo | 34 |
| 2013 | Joey Chestnut | 69 | Sonya Thomas | 36.75 |
* Joey Chestnut was banned from the 2024 contest due to a partnership with a vegan hot dog company.
❓ Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest FAQs
Who is favored to win the 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?
Joey Chestnut is the favorite to win this year's hot dog eating contest with -2000 odds implying a 95.24% chance that he wins the Mustard Belt in his return to the event.
Who won the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest last year?
Patrick Bertoletti won last year's hot dog eating contest with 58 hot dogs and buns, setting a new personal best to become the first non-Chestnut winner since Matt Stonie in 2015.
When is the 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?
The Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest will be held on Friday, July 4, as it is annually. The men's competition will begin at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Where is the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?
The contest is held at Nathan's Famous in Coney Island, N.Y.
How to watch the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest
The Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest is televised on ESPN, with coverage beginning at 10 a.m. ET.
How long is the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?
The men's and women's competitions are 10 minutes.
What is the prize money for the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?
The winner for the men's and women's hot dog eating contests each receive $10,000 in prize money. There are also prizes for second place ($5,000), third place ($2,500), fourth place ($1,500), and fifth place ($1,000).
💵 Best sports betting sites
Want to bet on the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest? Check out the best best sports betting apps and best sportsbook promos for this year's event:
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
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- Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review
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