Oscars Best Director Predictions: Betting Odds & Picks for 2025 Academy Awards
Another race that was completely flipped on its head, the Academy Award for Best Director seemed almost certain to go to the way of Brady Corbet. After a huge rally for "Anora" at a few important precursory awards, Sean Baker has clawed his way back into the conversation to be crowned this year’s Best Director.
He fronts our 2025 Oscars Best Director predictions as we look at the Oscars odds heading into Sunday's awards show at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
🎥 Oscars Best Director odds 2025
Here are the latest Oscars odds via FanDuel to win Best Director
| Director | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Baker (Anora) | -195 | 66.10% | $5.13 |
| Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) | +145 | 40.82% | $14.50 |
| Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez) | +2300 | 4.17% | $230 |
| Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) | +2900 | 3.33% | $290 |
| James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) | +2900 | 3.33% | $290 |
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Oscars Best Director predictions: The nominees
Sean Baker (Anora)
Going up against technical marvels and colossal studio machines, Sean Baker has managed to earn his film multiple shots at Oscar glory with what is the smallest production budget of any of the Best Picture nominees. His emotional, reality grounded movies spotlight marginalized voices and "Anora" is his eighth independent project in what has been a wonderful 30-year career.
It was unknown if the Academy and the more high-brow branches of the industry would embrace voting Baker over his more traditional counterparts, but three resounding guild wins from his peers at the PGA, DGA, and WGA awards prove the industry is ready to champion Sean Baker.
The Directors Guild endorsement, and its unmatched track record of predicting the eventual Oscar winner, doesn’t just demonstrate the guild’s admiration for Baker; it effectively stamps his Best Director campaign with a very influential seal of approval. As low as -210 on FanDuel, BetMGM provides a greatly improved price at -160 for a contender the industry may have already decided on rewarding.
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Over the past decade, nine out of 10 Best Director Oscar recipients also secured the DGA’s top honor, and though stats are made to be broken, this is not a trend I would want to stand in the way of.
Coupled with "The Brutalist"’s poor showings in multiple votes to round out the season, and the fact the director of "Conclave", Edward Berger, was not even nominated for this award, all signs are pointing to Sean Baker’s 30-year career culminating in the most prestigious prize a director can win.
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Nominated on just his third film as a director, Brady Corbet stunned audiences with his near four-hour epic shot on film on an extremely low budget. The 36-year-old auteur had seen his odds go down to -700 off the back of a great Golden Globes showing for "The Brutalist", implying a 90% chance of winning the Oscar just before the Critics Choice Awards.
In what could be described as a violent week for "The Brutalist", Brady Corbet saw defeat after defeat, relinquishing his frontrunner status in the two biggest races to fellow indie sensation Sean Baker and his film "Anora". One of the most predictive trends at the modern-day Oscars, the winner of the Directors Guild Association has almost always gone on to win Best Director.
It seems the guild of Corbet’s peers deemed it was not yet his time for this grand honor and opted for a more seasoned contender instead.
Though the damning DGA loss went totally against the momentum "The Brutalist" seemed to be building, it was not a total shock that a young auteur on just his third feature film was not given the industry’s highest honor. Mentioned in my previous byline on the Oscars, it took Christopher Nolan more than 20 years to finally score his elusive Best Director award, and it seems the Directors Guild once again wants to see Corbet work for it a little more before it is bestowed upon him.
Despite "The Brutalist"’s Best Picture chances evaporating over the last month, Corbet has remained competitive, winning Best Director at BAFTA and securing its very important endorsement just days before Oscar voting closed.
The DGA stat is damning but it is not unbreakable, and we have seen directors in the past win with a package similar to Corbet’s current awards tally. As high as +170 on FanDuel, Corbet has a serious chance of upsetting the industry and making history to become one of the Academy’s youngest ever Best Director winners.
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)
A revered European auteur who has worked on an Oscar-nominated production before, France’s Jacques Audiard is a heavyweight in international cinema. Audiard’s latest film is an ambitious Spanish musical and is the most nominated film at this year’s Oscars, earning 13 nominations. "Emilia Perez" as a film can be described as many things, and has won many awards this season, but best directed has not been one of them.
Priced far on the outskirts away from Corbet and Baker, Audiard is a market-best +2300 on FanDuel, giving him just a 4% chance of winning this award.
"Emilia Perez" will be picking up multiple Oscars throughout the night, and I don’t think the Academy will feel the need to bundle an Oscar on top for Audiard. And that’s without even touching on the controversial press conference remarks Audiard made regarding Spanish people, which quickly eroded much of his goodwill.
All things considered, there was a world where "Emilia Perez" secures a huge haul at the Oscars including a Best Director win for its visionary, but that is not how things unfolded, and Audiard will end the campaign without a directing win.
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
Earning her first invitation to the Oscars with just her second feature film, Fargeat makes history as the first French woman and eighth woman overall to be nominated for this huge distinction. Also hailing from France, the 48-year-old benefits from being the lone female nominee in a category frequently criticized for its lack of representation, but the reason for her extreme odds is the film that she is here with.
While "The Substance" is an award-winning feature film, at the end of the day it is still a gory, provocative project from a body-horror genre that is not appreciated by the Academy. Being just a second-time director, Fargeat also does not have the track record or branch support that her peers in this category enjoy.
Given less than a 4% chance of victory on FanDuel, Coralie can be proud of the genre-elevating work she has produced, and "The Substance" is still on track for multiple Oscars, but it won’t be a Best Director win for her this year.
James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
The only name here with a previous Oscar nomination, James Mangold is an established industry veteran responsible for blockbusters like "Logan", "Ford vs. Ferrari", and "Indiana Jones". His track record of commercial hits has made him a recognized name, but his rather formulaic approach with his Bob Dylan biopic has garnered him only a couple of nominations and no wins in the regional circuit.
His inclusion in this elite shortlist of five was a surprise to most in the industry, and our best sports betting sites have unanimously priced him as the least likely winner. With less than 4% chance of winning according to our odds converter, this is not the year James Mangold will be taking home the Oscar.
My best Best Director prediction: Sean Baker
Simply put, of the last 30 Best Director winners, 24 had also won the Directors Guild Award. Narrow it down to just the last decade, and that alignment jumps to nine out of 10.
While not every director’s path to the Oscar is the same, this moment to reward Sean Baker seems too lucrative for his peers and colleagues to pass up. Bet on Sean Baker to achieve a 30-year dream this weekend.
đź’ˇ How to bet on the Oscars
Odds for the 2025 Oscars are available at our best sportsbooks. It's worth checking out our best sportsbook promos to see which bonus offers you can take advantage of when betting on the Oscars, and don't miss our guide for how to bet on the Oscars!.
Once you've chosen your favorite of our best sportsbooks, navigate to the section that includes Oscars 2025 odds. It may be listed under Entertainment or can be found by searching "Oscars" at your preferred sportsbook.
DraftKings had its own "Academy Awards" section last year, where you could find various betting markets available including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Lead Actor, and Best Lead Actress, among others.
Review the odds for each award and consider factors such as past winners, the name value of a given nominee, and the release date of a film. This information can help inform your betting decisions. Once you've selected your bet, enter the stake amount (the amount of money you want to wager) and confirm your bet.
It's essential to remember that betting on the Oscars or any sports event involves risk. Set a budget for yourself and gamble responsibly. Go and watch some movies, and may your bet be a winning one!
âť“ Oscars FAQs
When are the Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars will take place Sunday, March 2, beginning at 7 p.m. ET.
Where are the Oscars?
The Oscars are held at Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
Who's hosting the Oscars?
Comedian Conan O'Brien is set to host the 2025 Oscars.
How to watch the Oscars
The 2025 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.
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