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Milan vs. Inter Predictions, Picks & Odds: Goals Will Be at Premium in Tense Derby

Anthony Wootton

Last Updated: May 10, 2023 9:42 AM EDT • 3 min 16 sec read.

There’s no home-field advantage in Wednesday's UEFA Champions League semifinal. Both AC and Inter Milan share San Siro Stadium, so expect a rocking atmosphere for the first leg on Wednesday. Both teams have been tough to score against in this season’s tournament, so who will break through first? Check out our Milan vs. Inter prediction based on the best Champions League odds.

The last time these teams faced each other at this stage of the Champions League was 20 years ago. AC Milan drew the first leg 0-0 as the home team and qualified on away goals in a 1-1 draw en route to the all-Italian final against Juventus at Old Trafford (Milan won).

Milan have lost only one of their previous six semifinal matches they hosted at the San Siro in the Champions League (four wins, one draw). That 1-0 defeat to Barcelona in the 2005-06 first leg was the only goal they’ve conceded across these six games as the home team, having kept a clean sheet in each of the other five.

AC Milan and Inter Milan both trail Real Madrid and Man City in the Champions League odds for the 2023 title.

Here is our best Milan vs. Inter prediction for the first leg of their Champions League semifinal (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Milan vs. Inter prediction

Milan moneyline (+210 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

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Inter enter this match as the team in better form, having won each of their last five games in all competitions. However, Milan’s form isn’t bad, either. They won their last game and haven’t suffered a defeat in any competition since March 18, an unbeaten run stretching nine games.

Milan and Inter have already met three times this season, with Inter winning each of the last two. Milan won the first meeting 3-2, but they’ve lost and failed to score in the two games since (0-3 in the Italian Super Cup and 0-1 in Serie A). Inter are fourth in the Serie A table and Milan are fifth. They’re separated by just two points in the race for a top-four finish.

Milan have conceded only one goal in their last six matches in the Champions League, and that came in the 93rd minute of their last match against Napoli. Across the six games, they’ve faced 86 shots, 27 shots on target, and have 6.8 expected goals allowed despite conceding only once.

Meanwhile, Inter have the fewest expected goals (13.3) of any side remaining in this competition. It might not be enough to unlock their rival's defense.

As impressive as Inter’s five-game win streak has been, Milan’s nine-game unbeaten run has included them disposing of Serie A champions Napoli in the quarterfinals of this competition and beating them 4-0 on the road in the league. Only Barcelona (11) have conceded fewer goals than Napoli (23) in Europe’s top five leagues.

AC Milan have a slight edge in terms of quality. Teams are struggling to score against them, so if Rafael Leao works his magic and sets up that opener, I can see them sneaking the win.

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Milan vs. Inter best odds

FanDuel, BetMGM, PointsBet (+210)

DraftKings FanDuel BetMGM Caesars PointsBet
AC Milan MLAC Milan MLAC Milan MLAC Milan MLAC Milan ML
+200 +210 +210 +205 +210

All of our best sportsbooks have Inter as the favorites. The best price for them is +150 via DraftKings. They’ve certainly had the upper hand over their rivals this season, but it’s been 28 years since they beat Milan three times in a single campaign.

AC Milan’s defense is going to be very tough to break down, and I think that’s where the advantage is in this play. They’ve conceded just four goals during their nine-game unbeaten run.

It’s hard to see Inter breaking down their defense. However, because it’s a derby, I’m not confident enough to stick four stars on this play. I do believe AC Milan are set up to win, and will, which is why it has three stars.

If you want to increase the odds, DraftKings offers Milan to win to nil at +300.

Milan vs. Inter game info

  • Date: Wednesday, May 10, 3 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS, Paramount+
  • Location: San Siro Stadium, Milan
  • Weather: 59 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 5-mph winds

AC Milan-Inter Milan prediction made 05/08/2023 at 6:30 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Anthony Wootton
Anthony Wootton has worked in the sports industry for more than 20 years. He’s reported on Premier League games for BBC radio and continues to cover the league, as well as other high-profile soccer competitions such as the UEFA Champions League. He is a founding member of the NFL Writers Network with NFL Europe, having covered every NFL London game since 2014 and multiple Super Bowls. Anthony has also reported on the Germany games in Munich and Frankfurt. His book, "The Greatest American Football Story That Has Never Been Told", has been an Amazon bestseller for American Football and Sports History publications. He is a member of the Professional Football Researchers Association. Anthony started writing for betting companies in 2018, working with some of the world’s largest gambling sites. He is an avid bettor on soccer and football, using multiple apps as he targets the best value on props and plays. Anthony is the host of the "TransAtlantic Sports Show" podcast and runs a weekly parlay feature on his YouTube channel throughout the NFL season. He has appeared on leading international podcasts such as the BBC World Service’s Sportshour, the Nat Coombs Show, and the Irish NFL Show. Anthony holds a bachelor’s degree in media from Sheffield Hallam University.