Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid Prediction, Expert Pick & Odds: 2024 Champions League Final
Saturday's Champions League final treats fans at Wembley Stadium to a David vs. Goliath showdown, and we're offering our top Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid predictions and expert picks based on the best Champions League odds.
Real Madrid are nearly unstoppable when they reach the Champions League finals. The Spanish giants have won 14 of their 17 UCL finals appearances, including eight straight. They're the heavy favorites to win their ninth in a row on Saturday.
To make matters worse for Borussia Dortmund, Madrid are undefeated in 25 matches across all competitions, so the German underdogs are being asked to do something that no one has been able to for months.
But we shouldn't underestimate Dortmund. They've upset many opponents throughout this competition, and they could do so once again as they look to claim their second-ever Champions League title (the first coming in 1997).
Accompanying our best Dortmund vs. Real Madrid parlay, here is our best Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid prediction and soccer pick for Saturday's Champions League final (odds via our best soccer betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid prediction
Real Madrid and Under 3.5 goals ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While I enjoy a fairytale as much as anyone and am addicted to morale-boosting, inspirational sports flicks on Disney+, I can't see Borussia Dortmund winning their first Champions League title in almost 30 years.
However, I expect an incredibly tight, cagey affair. The last four Champions League finals ended 1-0, highlighting an increased likelihood of one clinical moment proving decisive. This prop allows for three or fewer goals, which has occurred in six of the previous eight finals.
The 3.5-goal threshold provides a buffer, as there's a decent chance this contest goes to extra time deadlocked at 1-1. In that scenario, a winning goal - whether in extra time or via a dreaded shootout - would push the total to three goals. Four of the last six Dortmund and Madrid Champions League matches featured three goals or fewer.
Regarding the result, Madrid boast too many superstar players who can decide the match with one swift and magical swing of the boot.
Not only do Los Blancos carry the ability to win a match of this importance in a flash, but they're also better than Harry Houdini at escaping near-certain death. Madrid scored two last-gasp goals to pull off impressive escapes in two of their last three semifinals.
Best odds: +120 via DraftKings
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Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid odds
Champions League final odds via DraftKings as of Thursday at 1 p.m. ET.
| Teams | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | -160 | -0.5 (-175) | Over 2.5 (-140) |
| Borussia Dortmund | +450 | +0.5 (+130) | Under (+115) |
Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid odds analysis
BetMGM offers the best price of our best sports betting apps to back Madrid on the moneyline at -159. Overall, the club's moneyline odds are trading from -159 to -170.
Adding the Under on 3.5 goals substantially increases the value without increasing the risk too much. At +120, DraftKings' odds imply a probability of 45.45%, while a $10 bet will pay a profit of $12 if it hits.
Champions League final game info
- Date: Saturday, June 1 at 3 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS, Paramount+
- Location: Wembley Stadium, London, England
- Weather: 72 degrees and cloudy with a chance of rain
- Favorite: Real Madrid (-159 BetMGM)
Recent Champions League winners
| Team | Year | Odds prior to Round of 16 |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 2023 | +185 |
| Real Madrid | 2022 | +1600 |
| Chelsea | 2021 | +1800 |
| Bayern Munich | 2020 | +650 |
| Liverpool | 2019 | +900 |
| Real Madrid | 2018 | +850 |
| Real Madrid | 2017 | +490 |
| Real Madrid | 2016 | +550 |
| FC Barcelona | 2015 | +550 |
Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid prediction made Thursday at 1 p.m. ET.
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