Portugal vs. Slovenia Odds, Picks & Predictions: Will Ronaldo End Drought on Day 18 of Euro 2024?

Portugal was stunned by Georgia on Wednesday; will Slovenia shock them in the round of 16? Here are our Portugal vs. Slovenia picks and predictions based on the odds from our best soccer betting sites.

Portugal made numerous changes for their Group F finale against Georgia, though they did start Cristiano Ronaldo. The Portuguese had already won the group, so they were afforded the luxury of resting key players such as Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva. This is the first tournament since 2008 that Portugal has won their group at the European Championships, and they remain a major threat to win it all by the Euro 2024 odds. 

For the first time in their history, Slovenia has qualified for the last 16 of a major tournament. They’re unbeaten at Euro 2024, drawing all three of their Group C games, including a 0-0 stalemate with England.

Portugal vs. Slovenia predictions for Monday

• Final score: Portugal 3 – Slovenia 0 (+750 via BetMGM)
• Cristiano Ronaldo anytime goal scorer (-110 via bet365)
• Best bet: Portugal wins and Over 2.5 goals (+130 via DraftKings)

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Portugal vs. Slovenia score prediction

Portugal 3 vs. Slovenia 0

The stars are back for Portugal in this round. Only Germany have moved the ball more efficiently than the Portuguese who have a 90.1% passing accuracy at the tournament. In comparison, Slovenia has the second-worst passing accuracy at Euro 2024 (76.5%).

They were happy to soak up the pressure from England in the final Group C game on Tuesday. If they are to pressure Portugal, Slovenia will need to improve in the final third of the pitch, where they’re currently completing just 63.8% of their passes. Slovenia will invite pressure, but if Portugal breaks the deadlock, they won’t be able to sit back. A Portuguese goal will change the whole complexion of the game and leave the Slovenians more exposed as they go in search of an equalizer.

They qualified for the Round of 16 with just 32% possession, whereas Portugal averaged 67% possession and executed 53 shots during the group stage, second only to Germany. Get ready for a one-sided affair on Monday.

At +750, BetMGM's odds imply a probability of 11.8%, and a $10 wager pays a profit of $75 if this 3-0 exact score prop hits.   

Best odds: +750 via BetMGM

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Portugal vs. Slovenia anytime goal scorer prediction

Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal

The 39-year-old is clearly desperate to score.

Ronaldo started the Georgia match when so many of his teammates were rested. Ronaldo cares about stats and he will want the record of being the oldest player in history to score at the European Championships. He hasn’t scored in any of his last seven appearances for Portugal at major tournaments, but he had 19 shots across the two competitions since last scoring against Ghana at the World Cup in Qatar.

He could have scored in the match with Turkey but unselfishly teed up Bruno Fernandes for a tap-in. He is integral to their offense and will continue to get opportunities. As a man for the big occasion, don’t be surprised if he finds his shooting boots in these knockout rounds.

At -110, bet365’s odds represent a 52.4% win probability, and a $10 wager will pay a profit of $9.09 if Ronaldo scores. 

Best odds: -110 via bet365

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Portugal vs. Slovenia best bet

Portugal wins and Over 2.5 goals

The floodgates could open for Portugal, especially if they get an early goal. There is a gulf in class between these two sides, which will show in this must-win game.

The Portuguese have been excellent in possession, while their defense has faced just 23 shots all tournament, which is the second-fewest among all teams in the competition, and only five sides have faced more shots than the Slovenians. Slovenia can’t keep the ball long enough to cause a threat to Portugal.

Heading into this match, Portugal has averaged more than two goals a game in their last six matches. Only Germany (8) and Austria (6) scored more goals than the Portuguese (5) in the group stage. Slovenia has averaged more than a goal a game in their last six matches in all competitions.

This is new territory for the Slovenians, which brings added pressure. Portugal head coach Roberto Martinez had a 70% win record with Belgium and has won 15 of 18 matches in charge of Selecao da Quinas, and experience will be key in this contest.

The odds imply a 43.5% probability, and a $10 bet will pay a profit of $13 if it hits.

Best odds: +130 via DraftKings

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Portugal vs. Slovenia game info

• When: Monday, July 1, 3 p.m. ET
• Where: Frankfurt Arena, Frankfurt, Germany
• How to watch: Fox, Fubo
• Favorite: Portugal (-265 via DraftKings)

Portugal-Slovenia predictions made Saturday at 1 p.m. ET.

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