Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: UFC Fight Night
Colby Covington and Joaquin Buckley square off at UFC Fight Night as they look to strengthen their claims as title contenders in the welterweight division.
Our Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley prediction provides fight analysis and a best bet leading up to tonight's main event. Prelims from Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla. begin at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+), with the main card starting at 10 p.m. ET (ESPN2).
We make expert picks for other events on the main card as a part of our UFC Fight Night predictions.
Buckley (-225) is the heavily juiced favorite to defeat Covington (+185) at the best sportsbooks. Can "Chaos" stun the MMA world and legitimize his claim of still being one of the division's best fighters?
Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley prediction & best bet for UFC Fight Night
(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
- Fight prediction: Joaquin Buckley to win (-225 via BetMGM) vs. Colby Covington ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Covington-Buckley to go the distance (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley fight analysis
Covington caught lightning in a bottle during his seven-fight win streak spanning three years. He claimed the interim welterweight belt while earning a reputation as one of the division's best fighters.
There was then a descent back down to Earth when he ran into the buzzsaw that is Kamaru Usman, who beat him twice in as many years. The American hasn't quite looked the same since those defeats.
He's been away from the Octagon for nearly a year following his latest loss to Leon Edwards, which led to fans speculating about his future. Meanwhile, Buckley is ascending the division's ranks as the striker searches for his sixth consecutive victory since moving down from middleweight.
Buckley was meant to square off with Ian Machado Garry at UFC Fight Night in Tampa before the latter moved to a pay-per-view card. As such, the 30-year-old has been preparing for this bout for a while, whereas Covington steps in on short notice.
That reality and the recent form of each fighter justifies the best sports betting sites listing Buckley as a significant favorite.
Buckley should be able to coast if he can command the fight and remain on his feet. Problems arise if he overextends and allows Covington to take the matchup to the mat. Regardless of his age or recent performances, Covington is still an extremely talented grappler capable of competing with the best on his day.
Unfortunately for him, those days seem to be fading away. Buckley presents a stylistic nightmare for Covington at this point in his career. We'll back the sizable favorite at the shortest odds, found at BetMGM.
Prediction: Joaquin Buckley to win (-225 via BetMGM) | Implied probability: 69.23%
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Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley best bet
While Covington is known for his reckless style in the Octagon, he's recently fought with an uncharacteristic passiveness.
He averages 3.88 significant strikes landed per minute throughout his career. But Covington connected on just 44 significant strikes during a 25-minute scrap with Edwards at UFC 296. His 1.76 average is less than half of Covington's usual production, and that illustrates the stylistic switch perfectly.
The more cautious approach from Covington led to better defense against one of the division's more powerful strikers. It's likely the 36-year-old brings that approach to his bout with Buckley at UFC Tampa.
Eight of Covington's last 10 fights have gone the distance. While Buckley's fights have finished short of that at a 60% clip over his last 10 tilts, he hasn't seen an opponent of Covington's caliber to date.
We expect this bout to last the full five rounds, with bet365 offering the leading price (-120) for that pick.
Best bet: Covington-Buckley to go the distance (-120 via bet365) | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley odds
Odds via BetMGM as of Saturday
| Colby Covington | Method of victory | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| +185 | Win outright | -225 |
| +1100 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +150 |
| +300 | Win by unanimous decision | +175 |
| +5000 | Draw | +5000 |
Buckley is an unsurprising favorite. Two of his last five wins have come via decision, and Covington has been finished just twice in 21 professional fights. Buckley to win by decision (+175) is our favorite method of victory play.
Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley tale of the tape
| Colby Covington | Joaquin Buckley | |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Age | 30 |
| 5'11" | Height | 5'10" |
| 171 lbs | Weight | 171 lbs |
| 72 in. | Reach | 76 in. |
| 17-4-0 | Record | 20-6-0 |
Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley fight live odds and info: UFC Fight Night
- When: Saturday, Dec. 14, main card starts at 10 p.m. ET
- Where: Amalie Arena (Tampa, Fla.)
- How to watch: ESPN2/ESPN+
- Favorite: Joaquin Buckley -225 via BetMGM
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