UFC 272: Dos Anjos vs. Moicano MMA Odds and Picks

Themistoklis Alexis

Last Updated: September 17, 2022 11:02 AM EDT • 3 min 40 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

A pair of elite lightweight fighters are set to square off in a 160-pound catchweight clash on Saturday. Former 155-pound champion Rafael dos Anjos meets Renato Moicano in UFC 272’s co-headliner. Check out our dos Anjos-Moicano picks below.

It’s been a tumultuous week for dos Anjos, but the former lightweight king finally has himself a dance partner for Saturday’s main card in Las Vegas. His opponent is dangerous submission specialist Moicano, who steps in for a 160-pound catchweight clash on just a few days’ notice after dos Anjos’ original lightweight opponent, Rafael Fiziev, tested positive for COVID-19.

The 37-year-old dos Anjos ends a lengthy layoff in Saturday’s co-main event. He was last seen successfully returning to 155 pounds with a decision win over Paul Felder in November 2020. Meanwhile, Moicano enters in Fiziev’s stead on a two-fight win streak, with both victories coming by submission.

This compelling matchup between Brazilian bangers is all but guaranteed to produce fireworks, with the winner expected to return to the ever-stacked lightweight division as a new contender.

Here are my dos Anjos-Moicano picks and predictions for UFC 272’s catchweight co-main event (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Dos Anjos vs. Moicano Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, March 5, 10 p.m. ET (main card)TV: PPV, ESPN+Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Dos Anjos vs. Moicano Odds Analysis

Despite the short-notice booking, the lines for Saturday’s co-main event are far from lopsided, likely due to Moicano’s recent success at 155 pounds and the stylistic challenges he offers dos Anjos. FanDuel has dos Anjos as a -184 favorite, with Caesars listing him as low as -165. An upset for the game Moicano isn’t outside the realm of possibility, and oddsmakers have him listed accordingly. FanDuel is offering the Brazilian at a low of +138 and DraftKings Sportsbook at +155.

Dos Anjos is the fighter with the full training camp, and though there's at least a little value in betting on him to win, a victory on points nets a more tantalizing payout. FanDuel lists a decision win for the ex-champ at +220.

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Rafael dos Anjos Betting Profile

As a battle-tested, well-rounded veteran with 30 walks to the Octagon to his name, dos Anjos has seen it all. He proved he can still hang with the lightweight division’s best when he outdueled Felder in his divisional return nearly 16 months ago. Relying on his volume striking, excellent conditioning, and perfectly timed level changes, the Brazilian claimed two of three scorecards to snap a two-fight skid and bounce back from a rough stint at 170 pounds.

Dos Anjos departed for the welterweight division after dropping his lightweight crown to Eddie Alvarez and a decision to Tony Ferguson in 2016. However, he was outmuscled on several occasions by bigger, stronger wrestlers and grapplers like Kamaru Usman, Colby Covington, and Michael Chiesa. Now that he appears to have put his old battles with the scale behind him, dos Anjos looks right at home in his old weight class. He’s got a much better chance of finding success and winning decisions with his endless cardio, varied and prolific striking, and the occasional takedown.

Renato Moicano Betting Profile

A deadly submission artist who loves to sling leather, Moicano’s tool kit is far more diverse than his record suggests. The 32-year-old’s nine stoppage victories have all come by way of his patented rear-naked choke. However, Moicano isn’t averse to sitting in boxing range and trading zingers. Those who’ve underestimated the pop in Moicano’s punches have paid for it. The Brazilian stunned both Cub Swanson and, most recently, Alexander Hernandez before putting the final squeeze on them on the mat.

After going 5-3 at featherweight, Moicano has settled right in at 155 pounds, finishing two straight and three of four. His only defeat in that stretch came against the man he’s replacing on Saturday’s bill: Fiziev. He meets dos Anjos on a three-week turnaround and a two-fight win streak against Hernandez and former Cage Warriors champ Jai Herbert. Between his comfort on the feet and his finishing instinct on the mat, Moicano makes a most compelling dance partner for dos Anjos.

Dos Anjos vs. Moicano Picks

Dos Anjos to win (-165) ????Dos Anjos on points (+220) ???

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Dos Anjos vs. Moicano Predictions

Dos Anjos (-165 via Caesars)

Commendable as Moicano’s efforts to save Saturday’s co-headliner may be, he'll get out-volumed and deprived of a chance to work his lauded BJJ. Not only does dos Anjos have the gas tank to stage a fast-paced firefight over three rounds, but he’s also no stranger to last-minute changes, having faced a late replacement in Felder in his last outing. When dos Anjos is in his bag and pressing forward, his combination striking is nothing short of awe-inspiring. Given the risks of taking on a short-notice opponent (especially one of Moicano’s caliber), don’t be surprised if he resorts to his old tricks and keeps Moicano on the back foot from start to finish.

Dos Anjos by decision (+220 via FanDuel)

Pressure and punches in bunches will lead dos Anjos to his second straight win, but he’ll have to rely on them over the full distance. The ex-champ knows better than to indulge Moicano’s desire for a grappling match, and he’s never been one to recklessly chase a knockout. So long as he and Moicano stay upright, dos Anjos should claim a spot in the lightweight title picture with a calculated display of technical striking.

Where to Bet on UFC 272 Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook Caesars Sportsbook DraftKings Sportsbook PointsBet BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Dos Anjos-Moicano picks made 3/3/2022 at 6:19 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Themistoklis Alexis

Themistoklis Alexis has specialized in MMA- and boxing-specific sports betting for the past several years, having joined Sportsbook Review in early 2022. An avid bettor himself, he routinely places his bets with the especially user-friendly bet365, DraftKings for its array of prop lines, and/or FanDuel for its ever-compelling odds. Before coming to SBR, Themistoklis spent another few years covering the MMA beat at theScore, contributing everything from news stories to features to comprehensive fight week coverage, and was a diehard follower of the sport long before he ever covered it professionally. His introduction to MMA came in 2007 with UFC 74, where Randy Couture defended his heavyweight crown with a thrashing of Gabriel Gonzaga. Themistoklis holds a Bachelor's degree in Journalism from Toronto's Centennial College. In addition to all things MMA, he is equally interested in both boxing and cinematic lore. If there's any advice he can impart to new and experienced sports bettors, it's to avoid betting against the greats and keep their options open, as committing to a single sportsbook can prove shortsighted and deprive them of access to the best available odds.