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Jones vs. Gane Odds, Picks, Predictions: Will Jones' return at UFC 285 be Triumphant?

Kyle Smith

Last Updated: March 4, 2023 6:25 PM EST • 3 min 4 sec read.

Jon Jones and Ciryl Gane will cap a loaded UFC 285 card with their heavyweight title fight in the main event. Saturday's card also pits Valentina Shevchenko against Alexa Grasso for the women's flyweight title. Read on for our Jones-Gane UFC picks based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.

A bulked-up Jones returns to the UFC as a heavyweight after a three-year hiatus. The former 205-pound overlord last fought at UFC 247 way back in February 2020, where he scraped by a game Dominick Reyes via unanimous decision. Jones then relinquished the light heavyweight title following that bout, and he hasn’t graced the cage since. 

Gane has fought five times since Jones last made the walk, viciously separating Tai Tuivasa from his senses during a Fight Night event in September. The towering Frenchman is 8-1 since making his UFC debut, with his lone loss coming to heavyweight boogeyman Francis Ngannou.

Here are our top Jones vs. Gane picks for UFC 285 (odds via BetMGM and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Jones vs. Gane picks

  • Fight line: Jones ML (-165 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Winning method: Jones by decision or technical decision (+220 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Prop pick: Fight to go the distance (-122 FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Check out our UFC 285 best bets.

Fight line: Jones ML (-165 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

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A lot of this bout hinges on what Jones looks like as a heavyweight. Comfortably sitting atop MMA’s Mount Rushmore, Jones is an incredibly dynamic fighter, but who knows if the extra 40 pounds on his frame takes away some of that athleticism. There’s also the very real potential for rust, and his exodus from the light heavyweight division included a pair of lackluster performances against Reyes and Thiago Santos. 

You also need to account for Gane’s skill set. “Bon Gamin” is an excellent striker with legitimate knockout power (three KO/TKOs in his last five wins), and rare athleticism for a true heavyweight. However, Ngannou outwrestled Gane during their bout, and that's the strongest path to victory for Jones.

Sure, Jones won’t benefit from the element of surprise that Nganou enjoyed when he started snatching double legs. But Jones is a good offensive wrestler, and he should be able to drag Gane to the floor and outwork him from there.

It won’t necessarily be the most scintillating road to victory, but it’s the safest path for Jones if he wants to emerge with heavyweight gold wrapped around his waist.

Winning method: Jones by decision or technical decision (+220) ⭐⭐⭐

Jones will do enough to win, but I can’t picture him closing this one out within the distance. He's made it to the final bell in three straight bouts, and seven of his past nine. Gane has stood toe-to-toe with some absolute sluggers without his chin crumbling, and I don’t expect Jones to banish him to the land of wind and ghosts.

Similarly, I don’t see the uber-durable Jones falling to Gane’s heavy artillery. “Bones” faced a murderer’s row during his legendary run at light heavyweight, and he never came close to falling to strikes.

Prop pick: Fight to go the distance (-122) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I’m backing Jones to win, but I don’t think either man will fall inside 25 minutes. If you don’t trust Jones during his first heavyweight foray, this is definitely the bet to make.

Neither man has been finished, and they’ve combined to go the distance in 12 of their past 16 trips to the Octagon.

Jones vs. Gane best odds

BetMGM (Jones -165)

FighterDraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Jones-175-168-165-180-182
Gane+150+142+150+155+145

Jones is the favorite at every major sportsbook, and his best odds can be found at BetMGM (-165). If his inactivity and an unknown weight class looming over Jones dissuade you from backing him, snatch up the very capable Gane at +155 through Caesars. Gane at +155 is a fine bet considering all of the question marks facing Jones on Saturday night.

Jones vs. Gane fight info

Date: Saturday, March 4, 10 p.m. ET
TV: PPV
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Jones vs. Gane picks made 3/2/2023 at 3:30 p.m. ET

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Written By:
Kyle Smith
A sportswriter for more than a decade, Kyle Smith was once voted “World’s 78th Greatest Lover” by ‘Relatively Attractive People Magazine’.* After covering nearly every sport under the sun for theScore, Smith settled in as head MMA writer where he helped shape the company’s coverage and establish its combat sports identity. Since then, he’s dipped his toes (cannonballed) into the world of betting, where he specializes in the UFC and NHL. Constantly chasing that gigantic Parlay Dragon, Smith was devastated when a Leon Edwards head kick completely obliterated a recent five-leg parlay. You can read his rantings and ravings on Twitter @Heldrificus. *Not a real publication.