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Oliveira vs. Makhachev Picks, Predictions UFC 280: Lightweights Fight for Title

Kyle Smith

Last Updated: October 21, 2022 11:30 AM EDT • 2 min 38 sec read.

The fate of the lightweight title hangs in the balance when former champion Charles Oliveira battles Islam Makhachev in the main event of UFC 280 on Saturday in Abu Dhabi. Read on for our Oliveira-Makhachev picks and predictions.

Authoring quite possibly the greatest career turnaround in MMA history, Oliviera transformed himself from a talented, but middling lightweight into the best 155-pounder on the planet. He's also one of the greatest finishers in UFC history.

Even after being stripped of the title prior to UFC 274 after a weigh-in fiasco, “Do Bronx '' shook off the controversy, surviving, Justin Gaethje’s terrifying power before unleashing some hellfire of his own. Oliveira floored Gaethje with a thundering right hand before violently polishing him off with a rear-naked choke just over the midway point of the opening stanza.

Seen as the eventual heir apparent to Khabib Nurmagomedov’s abdicated throne, Makhachev carved a violent path through the division. He has racked up 10 straight wins, with the latest coming against Bobby Green in February. Makhachev ran roughshod over Green, quickly dragging the bout to the floor and raining down heavy ground and pound until the bout was mercifully waved off at 3:23 of the opening round.

Now that we’ve set the table, here are our top picks for Oliveira vs. Makhachev at UFC 280 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook).

Oliveira vs. Makhachev Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 22, 2 p.m. ET (Main Card)
TV: ESPN/ESPN +, PPV
Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, Arab Emirates

Oliveira vs. Makhachev Picks

  • To win: Oliveira (+160 DraftKings) ★★★★
  • Over/Under: Over 1.5 rounds (-175 Caesars) ★★★★
  • Winning method: Oliveira finish only (+140 DraftKings) ★★★★

Check out our UFC 280 best bets!

Who Will Win Oliveira vs. Makhachev?

Oliveira (+160) ★★★★

I’m done betting against “Do Bronx.” The rightful lightweight champion defined his title run with scintillating performances as the underdog, surviving in the deepest of waters against the truly elite at 155 pounds. He survived and thrived against the uncrowned kingpin Dustin Poirier at UFC 269. And he eventually laid waste to the heavy-handed Gaethje at UFC 274. The man is a venomous finisher who can starch an opponent with something nasty on the feet before snaking in a fight-ending submission.

Of course, Makhachev is no shrinking violet. The Russian combat sambo champion is an excellent wrestler with terrifying top control. However, he hasn’t faced anyone as dangerous as Oliveira. The Brazilian has the ability to finish wherever the fight goes. He has the striking acumen to piece Makhachev up on the feet and the grappling know-how to survive on the floor with the smothering Nurmagomedov protege.

Oliveira vs. Makhachev O/U Pick

Over 1.5 rounds (-175) ★★★★

Of Oliveira’s five wins since March 2020, four of them made it out of the opening round; three of them lasted until the third stanza. Sure, he’s a certified finisher, but as the level of competition rises, the odds of an early finish shrink accordingly. Comparatively, Makhachev is coming off consecutive first-round stoppages, but Bobby Green and Dan Hooker are decidedly not on Oliveira’s level. Six of Makhachev's past 10 wins have made it to the third frame.

I don’t expect either man to completely dominate their opponent early. This bout should definitely reach the midway point of the second round.

Oliveira vs. Makhachev Winning Method Pick

Oliveira finish only (+140) ★★★★

This is a bit of a cheat, but there’s tremendous value in backing the most prolific finisher in UFC history to close this one out inside the distance. Oliviera holds the UFC records for most submissions and most stoppages, and I expect nothing less on Saturday. Thirty of the champ's 33 wins have been of the stoppage variety, and he’s violently closed out 10 of his past 11 bouts. Makhachev’s lone career loss was a knockout at the hands of Adriano Martins way back in 2015, so it’s not completely outside the realm of possibility that he could be chin-checked.

Yes, you can bet on either a TKO/KO or a submission victory, but I feel there’s more value in backing either/or.

Where to Bet on Oliveira vs. Makhachev Picks

Oliveira-Makhachev picks made 10/20/2022 at 2:54 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Kyle Smith
A sportswriter for more than a decade, Kyle Smith was once voted “World’s 78th Greatest Lover” by ‘Relatively Attractive People Magazine’.* After covering nearly every sport under the sun for theScore, Smith settled in as head MMA writer where he helped shape the company’s coverage and establish its combat sports identity. Since then, he’s dipped his toes (cannonballed) into the world of betting, where he specializes in the UFC and NHL. Constantly chasing that gigantic Parlay Dragon, Smith was devastated when a Leon Edwards head kick completely obliterated a recent five-leg parlay. You can read his rantings and ravings on Twitter @Heldrificus. *Not a real publication.