UFC Predictions & Odds: Expert Picks for UFC 303 - Pereira vs. Prochazka
Before the UFC takes Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena for UFC 303, check out our predictions for Saturday based on the latest UFC 303 odds from our best UFC betting sites.
A light heavyweight title bout between champion Alex Pereira and challenger Jiri Prochazka headlines the bill on just 16 days’ notice, as a broken toe has sidelined Conor McGregor and scrapped UFC 303’s original closer opposite Michael Chandler.
Pereira now aims to secure a second title defense against the man he stopped to take the throne last November, with his first coming via KO against Jamahal Hill at UFC 300 this past April. As for Prochazka, the challenger most recently rebounded from his loss to Pereira with a second-round TKO of Aleksandar Rakic - one he scored moments before Pereira’s win over Hill.
In Saturday’s lightweight co-headliner, former featherweight title challenger Brian Ortega shares the cage with a streaking Diego Lopes. Ortega snapped a two-fight slump this past February with a third-round submission of Yair Rodriguez, while Lopes has earned three straight first-round stoppages in the Octagon, including an 89-second TKO of Sodiq Yusuff at UFC 300.
Here are our UFC predictions and UFC picks for Saturday's UFC 303.
UFC 303 predictions & picks
Odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Ortega ML vs. Lopes (+120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Pereira by KO/TKO vs. Prochazka (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jourdain vs. Silva Under 2.5 Rounds (+140 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Smith vs. Dolidze Under 1.5 Rounds (+155 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
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UFC 303 expert picks
Ortega ML vs. Lopes ⭐⭐⭐
Recency bias is alive and well as of Saturday morning, as Ortega takes the cage as a slight underdog against a man with a fraction of his Octagon experience.
While Lopes has wowed us all with his trio of first-round stoppages, he has yet to get the better of an elite UFC featherweight in four promotional appearances, and I can't help but think strength of schedule means something.
Yes, Ortega has taken an absurd amount of punishment in bouts with Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski, but he remains a tough out for anyone. Ortega outlands Lopes at 4.07 significant strikes per minute and, like his dance partner, can end things anywhere.
Tasked with a fast starter, I see Ortega weathering an early storm and taking Lopes past the first stanza before reminding him there are levels to this game - be it on the feet, the mat, or both.
Best odds: +120 via BetMGM
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Pereira by KO/TKO vs. Prochazka ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In a date with a man he violently dispatched just seven months ago, Pereira should end his second bout with Prochazka much like he did the first.
Not only does "Poatan" land over 60% of his significant strike attempts, he also defends half of those that come his way. The same can't be said for Prochazka, who has yet to learn how to rein himself in and defends just 41% of the opposition's strikes.
Much like the defending light heavyweight champ, Prochazka can end anyone's night with a single blow, but he's been known to have far too much fun in the cage - a habit that's cost him dearly on a few occasions.
As the career kickboxer and more technically proficient striker of this matchup, Pereira should exploit a dangerous yet careless Prochazka's flaws once he's made his reads. Expect him to add to his 80% knockout rate and keep the divisional crown in Brazil.
Best odds: +110 via DraftKings
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Jourdain vs. Silva Under 2.5 Rounds ⭐⭐⭐
Charles Jourdain has been stopped only once in seven career losses, but styles make fights, and with Jean Silva looking for another swift finish, this featherweight matchup shouldn't require the judges' input.
The 28-year-old Jourdain has earned all but two of his 15 pro wins by stoppage, while Silva has finished 11 of 12 conquests, all without seeing a third round. With the former landing over 5.5 significant strikes per minute and the latter boasting nine career knockouts, this featherweight matchup should produce much violence.
Furthermore, both Jourdain and Silva boast a few finishes by guillotine choke, so should either one begin to panic-wrestle, we could see their clash end with a swift tapout. All this to say, these two won't need the full 15, and while a bet on the matchup ending by stoppage also offers compelling plus-money value, the Under gets the nod here at a nice price.
Best odds: +140 via DraftKings
Smith vs. Dolidze Under 1.5 Rounds ⭐⭐⭐
This prop may seem questionable given Anthony Smith's reputation as a slow starter, but the numbers on this matchup and its short-notice nature have me leaning towards a quick night of work for him and Roman Dolidze.
For starters, Smith has earned an absurd 35 stoppages in 38 career victories - including nearly 30 in under 1.5 rounds - and been finished in 15 of 19 pro defeats. Dolidze, who moves 20 pounds up to face Smith on just eight days' notice, boasts 10 finishes in a dozen Ws, seven of which have come in the opening stanza.
Both men pack a solid wallop in their mitts, and if Dolidze opts to lean on his wrestling as he did against Laureano Staropoli and John Allan, Smith could make him regret it by aggressively pursuing a 16th career tapout. In other words, we could see a stoppage no matter where the action goes, and I'm banking on seeing it sooner rather than later.
Best odds: +155 via DraftKings
UFC best bets made Saturday at 12:04 a.m. ET.
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