UFC Predictions & Odds: Expert Picks for UFC 305 - Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
The UFC heads down under this Saturday to Perth, Australia as we break down the bill's action with our UFC 305 predictions.
The main event sees Dricus du Plessis defend his middleweight strap against Israel Adesanya, who'd been expected to face the champion back when Adesanya held the throne last year - only to lose it to Sean Strickland at UFC 293 before du Plessis became kingpin via split decision this past January at UFC 297.
Adesanya now gets his long-coveted grudge match with his fellow African following an 11-month layoff, while du Plessis meets the two-time titleholder with a UFC record of 7-0.
In the bill's flyweight co-headliner, Perth's Steve Erceg aims to bounce back from May's failed attempt to dethrone Alexandre Pantoja with a three-round clash opposite Kai Kara-France, who looks to snap a two-fight skid after 14 months on the shelf.
UFC 305 predictions & picks
(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
- Adesanya by decision vs. du Plessis (+200 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐
- Erceg by decision vs. Kara-France (+125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Culibao vs. Ramos goes the distance (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Jingliang vs. Prates Under 1.5 rounds (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
UFC 305 expert picks
Adesanya by decision vs. du Plessis ⭐⭐⭐
Some might draw comparisons between du Plessis and Strickland due to their awkward striking, but I see the former's performance against Adesanya bearing far more similarities to Marvin Vettori's from 2021.
In his showing at UFC 263, Vettori chose to take the center of the cage, trade with Adesanya, and pepper in takedowns in hopes of chewing the clock. But Adesanya was not so easily pinned to the mat, and ultimately, the then-champ handily outstruck Vettori from the outside and cruised to a unanimous decision victory.
With du Plessis averaging three takedowns per 15 minutes, I expect him to replicate Vettori's plan of attack and suffer a similar fate. In other words, look for Adesanya to work from the outside; score points with low kicks, jabs, and the occasional straight; and shuck off a handful of takedown attempts to reclaim the crown in his sixth trip to the scorecards in eight showings.
I dive deeper into the main event with my Du Plessis vs. Adesanya prediction.
Best odds: +200 via Betway | Implied probability: 33.33%
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Erceg by decision vs. Kara-France ⭐⭐⭐
Stoppages were easier to come by for Erceg on the regional circuit, as the Perth native has gone the distance in three of his four walks to the Octagon. With the former title challenger meeting an experienced bruiser in Kara-France, I expect more of the same come fight night.
Erceg has displayed excellent striking in his last couple of showings and averages 4.52 significant strikes per minute. He'll need to pad that figure against Kara-France, who lands over four per minute himself, is in dire need of a win, and won't be easily put away.
Erceg being the taller fighter by four inches, the uppercut and knee up the middle should be there for him throughout Saturday's bout. Whether he opts for those or other strikes, he should land more quality shots than Kara-France and steal a round or two with a takedown to bounce back via a hard-earned decision.
Best odds: +125 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 44.44%
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Culibao vs. Ramos goes the distance ⭐⭐⭐
Josh Culibao and Ricardo Ramos have both produced some dazzling action and finishes in the cage, but they'll likely need the judges to decide their featherweight clash.
The former has gone the full 15 in five of his seven bouts under the UFC banner. While the latter's performances aren't always predictable, Ramos arguably does his best work when reining himself in and relying on his takedowns. Given the Brazilian's two-fight skid, I expect him to go back to the old well and Culibao to make him work for every takedown, as he stuffs 67% of all attempts.
In short, between Ramos' flashy strikes and dangerous grappling and Culibao's crisp boxing and solid takedown defense, look for these two to spend as much time on their feet as on the mat from first bell to final horn.
Best odds: +100 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 50%
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Jingliang vs. Prates Under 1.5 rounds ⭐⭐⭐
Li Jingliang gets no softballs in his return from a 23-month layoff, as he's tasked with a prolific finisher in Carlos Prates.
With 10 knockouts and 14 career stoppages to his name, the Chinese product is a solid finisher himself. And while he isn't the swiftest starter, he gets a dance partner who will not only bring the fight to him but is also hittable. Indeed, Prates may average over four significant strikes per minute, but he eats more than five and defends less than 40% of the opposition's attempts.
Jingliang, by comparison, lands 4.46 significant strikes of his own per minute. Prates will give him little choice but to start slinging leather early and often, as the Brazilian boasts 17 stoppages, 14 knockouts, and nine finishes within 1.5 rounds over 19 career victories.
All this to say, whether Prates scores with a blitz or Jingliang ends his layoff with an emphatic W, this pair should be in for a brief night's work.
Best odds: +120 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 45.45%
UFC expert picks made Saturday at 12:06 a.m. E.T.
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