UFC Predictions & Odds: Expert Picks for UFC 308 Today - Topuria vs. Holloway
Our UFC 308 predictions dive into many of the intriguing wagers available ahead of Saturday's event at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, with the main card starting at 2 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.
Ilia Topuria will be defending the featherweight title while opposing ex-champ Max Holloway. Topuria is the division's leader and the favorite at our UFC betting sites. He's a flawless 7-0 in the UFC, and 15-0 professionally with 13 stoppages. His most recent victory was a second-round knockout of Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 298 in February.
Meanwhile, Holloway seeks his third consecutive victory, and he wants to become a two-time belt-holder after his 30th career tilt. He hasn't competed since April in UFC 300, when Holloway beat Justin Gaethje with a last-second knockout.
The middleweight bout on the card features Robert Whittaker against the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev. The former has taken two straight fights, while the latter is coming back after a year-long absence following a narrow win over Kamaru Usman at UFC 294.
UFC predictions & picks
(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
- Max Holloway ML vs. Ilia Topuria (+240 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Geoff Neal by decision vs. Rafael dos Anjos (+135 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Magomedov by submission or decision vs. Brunno Ferreira (+185 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Myktybek Orolbai by submission vs. Mateusz Rebecki (+500 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
UFC 308 expert picks
Max Holloway ML vs. Ilia Topuria ⭐⭐⭐
He may have a lot of mileage for a fighter his age, but Holloway’s cardio, durability, and volume striking haven’t failed him yet, nor do I think they will in his dance with Topuria.
While the defending champ’s striking has developed nicely, none of his past conquests have prepared him for the cardio and combination machine that is Holloway, who lands over seven significant strikes per minute to Topuria’s 4.40.
With both fighters bringing a boxing-heavy attack, look for Holloway to eat a few zingers yet flood Topuria with combinations, body shots, and both literal and verbal jabs to render the king’s reign a one-and-done and become a two-time UFC champion.
Best odds: +240 via bet365 | Implied probability: 29.41%
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Geoff Neal by decision vs. Rafael dos Anjos ⭐⭐⭐
Rafael dos Anjos just won’t quit his welterweight experiment, and Geoff Neal will likely make him pay for it come fight night.
A volume striker and excellent grappler, the former lightweight champ has had a rough go of imposing his will on welterweight dance partners in the past, and that won’t change with Neal, a southpaw who’s three inches taller, five inches longer, and stuffs 87% of the opposition’s takedown attempts.
Neal is also the matchup’s more prolific striker, landing 4.97 significant strikes a minute to dos Anjos’ 3.48, although the latter remains a hard man to finish, even at welterweight.
All this to say, he’ll have to stuff a few takedown attempts along the fence, but Neal should keep the fight in space long enough to find the timing on his lethal straight left and get back in the win column on points.
Best odds: +135 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 42.55%
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Abusupiyan Magomedov by submission or decision vs. Brunno Ferreira ⭐⭐⭐
Abusupiyan Magomedov rarely saw the scorecards before joining the UFC, but he may on Saturday.
Pitted against a striker who’s never needed the judges’ participation in Brunno Ferreira, Magomedov could very well replicate his most recent performance against Warlley Alves, ride his wrestling, and chew the clock to victory.
With a six-inch edge in reach, Magomedov may opt to strike from distance and score points with potshots instead, but should Ferreira’s mitts get too close for comfort, the takedown will be available.
If the middleweights hit the mat, Magomedov’s top control should be enough to earn the judges’ verdict but don’t be surprised if he lightens their load by snatching a neck or a limb, having earned six career wins by submission.
Best odds: +185 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 35.09%
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Myktybek Orolbai by submission vs. Mateusz Rebecki ⭐⭐⭐
Given Myktybek Orolbai’s recent performances, I’m surprised at the whopping value of a win-by-submission for the Kyrgyz product, but I’m going with it.
Yes, Mateusz Rebecki hasn’t tapped in 21 career contests, but based on Orolbai’s wrestling, top control, and five submissions in 13 pro wins, I think he’ll be the one to change that.
With nine career victories via strikes, Rebecki is dangerous on the feet. It behooves Orolbai to bring the action to the mat. Once there, look for Orolbai to advance position and stay busy with ground-and-pound before capitalizing on the first opening to secure a fight-ending choke.
Best odds: +500 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 16.67%
UFC expert picks made Friday at 8 a.m. ET.
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