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UFC Predictions & Odds Tonight: Expert Picks for UFC 314 - Volkanovski vs. Lopes

Gabe Henderson

Last Updated: April 12, 2025 3:49 PM EDT • 4 min 22 sec read.

UFC 314 Predictions & Odds: Expert Picks for tonight's Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes Card
Pictured: Alexander Volkanovski prior to the fight against Yair Rodriguez during UFC 290. Photo by Stephen R. Sylvanie via Imagn Images.

Diego Lopes (26-6) looks to ascend the featherweight division in less than two years tonight when he takes on Alexander Volkanovski (26-4) for the vacant belt. The main event at UFC 314 will decide which contender will pick up the crown left behind by Ilia Topuria as he made the jump to a higher weight class.

Our UFC 314 predictions analyze the latest odds to provide the best bets and picks for tonight's pay-per-view event. Our best sports betting sites list the Volkanovski as a -155 betting favorite over Lopes. Prelims start at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN), with the main card beginning around 10 p.m. ET (ESPN+ PPV) from Miami's Kaseya Center.

🔮 UFC best bets

Here are my best UFC 313 predictions and picks for tonight's PPV card, with my UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

  • Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision v. Diego Lopes (+200 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Paddy Pimblett to win by submission v. Michael Chandler (+260 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Jean Silva to win by KO/TKO/DQ v. Bryce Mitchell (+120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Yair Rodriguez ML v. Patricio Pitbull (-155 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🧐 UFC 314 expert picks

🏆 Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision vs. Diego Lopes ⭐⭐⭐

UFC 314 Predictions & Odds: Expert Picks for Saturday
Pictured: Alexander Volkanovski fights against Ilia Topuria during UFC 298. Photo by Gary A. Vasquez via Imagn Images.

Best odds: +200 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 33.33%

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Lopes is a popular public pick while receiving 66% of the bets and 60% of the handle at BetMGM. The young Brazilian has come out of the gate firing in the UFC, racking up five consecutive wins after a loss during his debut at UFC 288. Meanwhile, Volkanovski has lost three of his last four straight up.

But we're zigging where others zag. "The Great" has fought with a belt on the line nine straight times. He's used to the bright lights, whereas Lopes has yet to earn his seat at the adult table.

Lopes' dual-threat ability - 10 knockout wins to 12 submission victories in his career - is a rare trait in the UFC. But his grip on fights starts to slip as he continues to climb the UFC ranks, and Lopes has gone the distance in the last two. If Volkanovski can survive an early onslaught from Lopes, experience should carry him to the belt.

We recommend this play at three stars of confidence as it provides more value, with a $10 winning wager paying out $20 in profit. However, if you're solely picking the winner of the scrap, Volkanovski is +125 at BetRivers to take the bout straight up.

📊 Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes live odds

🥊 Paddy Pimblett to win by submission vs. Michael Chandler ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +260 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 27.78%

Love him or hate him, you have an opinion on Pimblett. One of the UFC's most polarizing fighters looks to continue climbing the lightweight ladder when he faces his toughest test yet in an aging Chandler. While we faded the public with the previous pick, we're betting with them here with three stars of confidence.

Chandler has lost four of his last five fights, only two of which have been by decision. That run includes Dustin Poirier submitting him during UFC 281 after he hadn't won through that method in a decade. Meanwhile, three of Pimblett's last five wins have come on the ground.

The Scouser has taken eight straight, including every one of his six UFC fights. While Chandler is his toughest opponent yet, the same was true in his latest scrap against King Green. That's when Pimblett needed less than one round to defeat his UFC 304 opponent.

Pimblett earning a submission win is one of the most popular bets at our best sports betting apps. FanDuel is the place to get the best odds for tonight's co-main event, with "The Baddy" to win by submission trading at +260.

📊 Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett live odds

🥊 Jean Silva to win by KO/TKO/DQ vs. Bryce Mitchell ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 45.45%

Is it possible for a Brazilian fighting for the fifth time on the UFC circuit to surpass Pimblett as the most popular fighter on the card? If Silva knocks out Mitchell, we'll find out. Mitchell has cast the villain role upon himself after ignorant - for lack of a better term - comments he made on a recent podcast.

The American steps into the Octagon for the first time since those remarks as a heavy betting underdog at our best sportsbooks. Silva has won four consecutive fights via knockout, and he'll pick up a fifth unless Mitchell can keep this matchup on the mat the entire time.

The 28-year-old boasts an 80% takedown defense and lands a whopping 5.26 significant strikes per minute. Silva is trading at +120 to knock Mitchell out, with FanDuel once again the place interested bettors should be shopping.

📊 Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva live odds

🥊 Yair Rodriguez ML vs. Patricio Pitbull ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -155 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 60.78%

Pitbull gets a tough draw during his UFC debut while facing the featherweight division's fifth-ranked challenger. Rodriguez not only holds the experience advantage over the Brazilian, but "El Pantera" also boasts five inches of height and four inches of reach over the debutant five years his senior.

The Mexican's moneyline was nearly unplayable earlier in the week while trading around -200. However, odds at BetMGM have moved to -155, which means we're comfortable recommending it with four stars of confidence. Rodriguez's odds imply a 60.78% win probability.

📊 Yair Rodriguez ML vs. Patricio Pitbull live odds

🔢 UFC 314 betting insights

UFC 314 betting insights via BetMGM as of Saturday, April 12.

🎟️ Most bet fights (tickets)

  • Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett
  • Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes
  • Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva
  • Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes
  • Chase Hooper vs. Jim Miller

🎟️ Most bet props (tickets)

  • Paddy Pimblett by decision/technical decision (+1000)
  • Paddy Pimblett by submission (+200)
  • Bryce Mitchell by submission (+650)
  • Diego Lopes by KO/TKO or DQ (+300)
  • Michael Chandler by KO/TKO or DQ (+250)

👑 Best UFC betting sites

Looking to bet on the UFC? Here are our best UFC betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos available for today's UFC event.

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Written By:
Gabe Henderson
Gabe Henderson is a sports betting writer from Houston, Texas. He graduated from Louisiana State University in 2022 with a bachelor's degree in Mass Communication. Gabe developed an interest in sports betting while in college due to its legalization in Louisiana. He turned his passion into a career shortly after, joining The Advocate/NOLA.com as a Sports Betting Content Coordinator, where he spent two years. Gabe wore many hats before graduating as he led FanSided's coverage of Chelsea FC as a Site Expert with "The Pride of London." He was also the Editor-in-Chief of the LSU Gumbo Yearbook for two years. Gabe became a part of the SportsbookReview.com team in late 2024. He brings with him an extensive knowledge of many sports, including — but not limited to — NFL, NCAA, MLB, NBA, soccer, and UFC.