UFC 273: Sterling vs. Yan MMA Odds and Picks
Aljamain Sterling and Petr Yan are soon to clash in a fight meant to give at least one of them some closure and determine the world's pre-eminent bantamweight at UFC 273 on Saturday. Check out our Sterling-Yan picks for the card's co-headliner.
The first time Aljamain Sterling and Petr Yan squared off back in March 2021, the pair staged a riveting duel that ended in most disappointing fashion when an illegal knee from Yan put Sterling out of commission late in Round 4. Sterling left the cage a newly crowned UFC champion via disqualification with the matchup's anticlimactic end, and 13 months and an endless amount of traded barbs later, he'll have to properly cement himself as divisional kingpin at Yan's expense all over again.
While the reigning champ was nursing some lingering neck issues, Yan earned himself another shot at the undisputed crown by outstriking Cory Sandhangen over five enthralling rounds at UFC 267 for a unanimous verdict and an interim title. He'll now look to treat Sterling to the clean finish he was deprived of last year in a tantalizing battle for bantamweight supremacy.
Will the "Funk Master" live up to his moniker and take a sledgehammer to any doubts regarding his legitimacy as champion, or will Yan bring the UFC bantamweight strap back to his native Russia?
Here are my Sterling-Yan picks and predictions for Saturday's bantamweight title unifier (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Sterling vs. Yan Fight Info
Date/Time: Saturday, April 9, 10 p.m. ET (main card)TV: ESPN+, PPVLocation: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, FL
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Sterling vs. Yan Odds Analysis
The unceremonious end of this pair's competitive first tilt and Yan's impressive subsequent victory over Sandhagen have the interim champ sitting pretty, with both Caesars and DraftKings Sportsbook listing him at -490. There isn't much value in betting on a Yan win, but there is on a knockout, as PointsBet has a Yan KO/TKO at +170 as of Wednesday night.
As for Sterling, the New York native sits at +370 with Caesars, a line seldom seen next to a reigning champ's name, yet one that would pay out nicely should Sterling successfully close the book on his rivalry with Yan.
Aljamain Sterling Betting Profile
The lingering beef with Yan and the endless flak he caught over their first matchup's end have unjustly overshadowed Sterling's talent and recent run. The reigning champ hasn't taken an L in over four years, and whatever you might think of how he came to wear his crown, Sterling has more than earned his way to the top of the divisional food chain.
In the five victories that preceded his first date with Yan, Sterling claimed decisions over Brett Johns, Jimmie Rivera, and Pedro Munhoz, regaled us with an uber-rare Suloev-stretch tapout of Cody Stamann, and dispatched Sandhagen in under 90 seconds. And let's not forget the four rounds that preceded the bitter end to the matchup that made him king. Sterling pushed the pace and remained arguably busier than Yan with his funky movement and active kicking game before the errant knee that spoiled it all. Whatever the outcome of Saturday's grudge match, Sterling is and will remain a world-class bantamweight.
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Petr Yan Betting Profile
One could probably attribute this to his two classic ACB fights with Magomed Magomedov, but Yan was already a battle-tested, fully formed talent when he joined the UFC at just 25 in 2018. A methodical technician with crisp boxing, excellent defensive grappling, and sneaky clinch work, Yan has outclassed every one of his victims in the Octagon, including the great Jose Aldo in a showing that earned him the bantamweight crown at UFC 251 before Sterling claimed it.
Billed as a lethal finisher prior to his UFC arrival, Yan's patience is oddly his greatest asset, as he's displayed a knack for making reads and adjusting accordingly in his wins over Aldo and Sandhagen. The 29-year-old staged a similar performance in his first clash with Sterling, only to pay for his pursuit of a late finish with his first promotional loss. Yan rebounded from his 2016 defeat to Magomedov with a vengeance, and many an oddsmaker is counting on him to do the same Saturday night.
Sterling vs. Yan Picks
Yan to win (-475) ????Yan by KO/TKO (+170) ???
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Sterling vs. Yan Predictions
Yan to win (-475)
For all the dangers he presents, Yan is at his best when he's compiling information and making the needed adjustments, and now that he's shared nearly 20 minutes with Sterling in the Octagon, I wouldn't be shocked if he takes the cage with a reworked gameplan this time around. Since his two dates with Magomedov, Yan has proven a pain to take down - much less hold down - so if Sterling rides his funky striking over his wrestling yet again, the Russian interim champ shouldn't have as much trouble finding his range and dissecting Sterling to unify their bantamweight titles.
Yan by KO/TKO (+170)
For all Sterling's talent on both his feet and the mat, I doubt his second showing against Yan will look much different than the first. Should the reigning champ choose to rely on his wrestling as he did against Sandhagen, Yan's sprawl should dispel him of that notion soon enough. After which I expect Yan to apply plenty of pressure, act on his reads, and vanquish Sterling with a blistering combination inside the distance.
Where to Bet on UFC 273
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Sterling-Yan picks made 4/6/2022 at 9:48 p.m. ET.
