UFC in Vegas 38: Thiago Santos vs. Johnny Walker First Look at UFC Odds, Betting Picks and Predictions

The UFC returns to the Apex Centre in Vegas for another stacked UFC Fight Night event. Two of the UFC's top-ranked light heavyweights will square off in the main event.

Read on for our complete betting guide taking a first look at Thiago Santos and Johnny Walker, including updated odds and our free expert UFC picks.

Thiago Santos vs. Johnny Walker

UFC Light Heavyweight Main Event Bout

Saturday, October 1, 2021 - 11:50 PM EDT at UFC Apex Center

Thiago “Marreta” Santos (21-9-0)

Thiago Santos is a household name amongst the UFC roster. He joined the company from his stint on The Ultimate Fighter Brazil in 2013; despite not winning the competition, his talent was enough to earn him a place within the company.

An eight-year capoeira background allowed a large middleweight to possess an agile ability, known for his lethal leg kicking power; the Brazilian is also a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. Still, this attribute is often forgotten about due to his love for striking in the octagon.

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Five years in the UFC’s middleweight division provided fight fans with numerous highlight-reel performances from Santos, but a championship opportunity never came to fruition.

A step up to the light heavyweight division in 2018 saw Santos defeat Jimi Manuwa and Jan Blachowicz to earn a shot at Jonny “Bones” Jones. Santos wasn’t successful, but many argue it’s been the most demanding test for Jon Jones as he only managed a tight split decision victory.

Santos owns a victory over the current UFC light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz, and with a significant win next weekend, he’ll return to the title picture.

Thiago Santos MMA Accomplishments

UFC Fight of the Night (Two times)UFC Performance of the Night (Four times)Most UFC fights in a calendar year (Five)Most knockout wins in UFC middleweight history(Eight, tied with Silva & Hall)

Best Available Odds: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

Thiago Santos of Brazil looks on prior to his fight against Jon Jones. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images/AFP

Johnny Walker (18-5-0)

A fellow Rio de Janeiro-born fighter in Johnny Walker will challenge the skills of Thiago Santos next week, and much like his opponent, Walker is known for a fierce amount of striking power that often leaves the opposition unconscious.

Although a native of Brazil, Walker has chosen to represent England, where he was noticed by the UFC matchmakers and was invited to compete in Dana Whites Contender Series. Walker brutalized the competition on the British regionals before walking onto DWCS and claimed his UFC contract.

Walker made UFC fans notice his arrival with impressive TKO finishes for his first three contracted fights. Setbacks against Corey Anderson and Nikita Krylov dropped his LHW ranking, and now following a year, he returns against Thiago Santos.

Johnny Walker MMA Accomplishments

UFC Performance of the Night (Three times)

Best Available Odds:

Corey Anderson of the United States (R) fights against Johnny Walker (L) of Brazil during UFC 244. Steven Ryan/Getty Images/AFP

How Can Walker Win?

Johnny Walker undoubtedly owns a level of brute force that can finish the opposition, but many concerns within his skillset need to be addressed.

I’d probably be wise to rush his fellow Brazilian and attempt to get the job done as quickly as possible when facing Thiago Santos. In kickboxing range across five rounds, he doesn’t stand much chance of outworking Santos technically.

I believe the longer Santos had to think, the more he could outsmart Walker anywhere this fight takes. So, Walker will want to throw his weapons and hope they land early.

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How Can Santos Win?

Fortunately for Santos, he owns the experience and fight-IQ advantage against the dangerous power of Walker.

Santos will want to remove the first-round hype, and I believe he can utilize a grappling game plan to do so. Walker’s wildness needs to be tamed; once this is accomplished and he’s feeling the lactic acid seep through his body, it’ll become Santos’ fight to lose.

Corey Anderson and Nikita Krylov drew the blueprint on neutralizing Walker’s path to victory, and I do not doubt that Santos can do the same.

Thiago Santos vs. Johnny Walker Betting Picks

The available odds at Sportsbook Review opened around -160 in favor of Santos; a slight move in price is heading in the correct direction as Thiago Santos now sits at -172.

Santos is riding a 3-fight losing streak; however, the level of competition is incomparable. Take “Marreta” to get back into the win column before this UFC odds escalate.

UFC Vegas 38 Pick:

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.