Alabama vs. Wisconsin Predictions, Picks & Odds: Week 3
Time to show us what you’re made of, Kalen DeBoer.
Last week’s three-quarter scare against South Florida notwithstanding, our Alabama vs. Wisconsin prediction highlights the first real challenge of a new era for the Crimson Tide. First-year Bama coach leads his group into Madison, and our college football expert picks dive into the noon ET matchup.
Alabama, featured in Mike Spector's SEC predictions, will be the hunted in what should be a competitive matchup. Yet, the point spread doesn’t seem to reflect just how contested this outcome could be.
Best Alabama vs. Wisconsin picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Wisconsin +16.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Alabama ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop pick: Jam Miller Over 66.5 rushing yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Alabama vs. Wisconsin against the spread prediction: Week 3
Wisconsin to cover the spread: +16.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Alabama vs. Wisconsin opening odds:
- Alabama: -8.5 (-105)
- Wisconsin: +8.5 (-115)
Wisconsin ranks 95th in overall efficiency according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, but I see this being a situation where the Badgers have played down to their competition to garner those results.
Camp Randall won’t play around - it will jump around
With a big brand top-5 program coming to town, I see the opposite about to materialize against an Alabama team that hasn’t experienced a tough road game sans Nick Saban.
A line greater than two touchdowns screams value on the Badgers at home after Bama needed all four quarters to pull away from USF.
Wisconsin stayed within a massive 14.5-point spread against highly-ranked Ohio State at home last season. Although Wisconsin has toyed around with lesser opponents in its first two wins, the environment factor should help the Badgers minimize the impact of the talent disparity against an Alabama group that hasn’t fired on all cylinders yet.
Shopping for points
Alabama backers would prefer to bet this spread at FanDuel, where the line is -15.5 - the slimmest we found across our best sports betting sites. Caesars and bet365 have the Tide at -16.
BetMGM is our preferred spot to back the Badgers with the spread at Wisconsin +16.5. DraftKings also lists Wisconsin +16.5 but with -112 odds that are less favorable than the -110 odds at BetMGM.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Alabama vs. Wisconsin prop pick for Week 3
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Jam Miller Over 66.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Wisconsin has been solid against opposing passing offenses through two weeks, allowing only 127.5 yards per game through the air. On the ground, though, the Badgers permitted lesser offenses of South Dakota and Western Michigan to find some footing.
That could be an aspect of exploitation for the visiting Crimson Tide in Week 3.
Run on the Badgers?
The Badgers allowed 120 rushing yards against WMU before giving up 125 yards on the ground to FCS South Dakota. Alabama has one of the top rushing attacks in the nation so far. Jam Miller and Justice Haynes have split the backfield workload.
While both have attainable rushing lines for Saturday, Miller should get the bulk of the work if the game stays competitive. I love Miller's rushing line of 66.5 yards with -115 odds at both Caesars and bet365 after he had 15 carries for 140 yards and a touchdown against USF.
The value at DraftKings (68+ yards, -110), FanDuel (68.5 yards, -114) and BetMGM (68.5 yards, -115) isn’t as strong for Over bettors.
I’ll keep Miller’s rushing prop as a five-star play up to 69.5 yards and a four-star play up to 74.5 yards.
Best odds: -115 via Caesars | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Alabama vs. Wisconsin odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Alabama vs. Wisconsin game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 14
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Where: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, Wisc.
- How to watch: Fox
- Weather: 77 degrees, 20% precipitation, 9 mph winds
- Favorite: Alabama (-750 via DraftKings)
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