Heisman Trophy Predictions: Should You Bet on Arch Manning?
The Heisman Trophy is the most prestigious award in sports, and after a riveting race last season, next season is shaping up to be another barnburner.
While our 2026 Heisman Trophy predictions don't have a two-way star like Travis Hunter or a record-setting running back like Ashton Jeanty, there are several serious Heisman Trophy odds contenders to consider for next season, including Texas QB Arch Manning.
Heisman Trophy odds favorite
Garrett Nussmeier Heisman Trophy odds (+900)
Though LSU had a disappointing season, it makes plenty of sense that Garrett Nussmeier opened as the Heisman Trophy odds favorite. He's filled the shoes of former Heisman winner and NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds favorite Jayden Daniels admirably.
While there were some ugly moments in losses against Texas A&M and Alabama, there were enough flashes of brilliance that some viewed Nussmeier as a potential contender in the 2025 NFL Draft odds race to be a first-round pick had he opted to declare.
Instead, he's back in Baton Rouge and has LSU among the 10 favorites by the college football national championship odds for next season. The team looks poised to take a step forward too, but I'm weary of how short these odds are this early - paying just a $90 profit on a $10 winning bet.
If Nussmeier is going to take home this award as a QB that doesn't add much as a runner, he's going to need to cut back on turnovers - he had 18 turnover-worthy plays last season, per PFF. At the same time, he's an enticing passer due to his willingness to attack down field (26 big-time throws), so if this price lengthens I'd be a lot more willing to back him.
Best odds: +900 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 10%
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Heisman Trophy odds dark horse contender
Dante Moore Heisman Trophy odds (+2000)
I actually think Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith (+1400) is the player outside of the five biggest favorites that makes the most sense to back. However, we can't call him a dark horse after he sealed the Buckeyes' national championship and proved to be the best receiver in college football as a true freshman.
Instead, I'm targeting a quarterback that I believe has all the potential in the world. After starting at UCLA for Chip Kelly as a true freshman, Dante Moore transferred to Oregon this past season to sit behind Heisman-finalist Dillon Gabriel.
The former five-star recruit was ranked only behind Heisman contenders Manning and Nico Iamaleava in his recruiting class two years ago. And as a freshman on a bad Bruins team, there were moments he looked like a future star (see: San Diego State game).
Obviously, it's a gamble to back a QB purely on potential, but Moore managed 14 big-time throws to just six turnover-worthy plays in his first five games at UCLA. Now he's with a far more competent program, and Ducks OC Will Stein has helped both Gabriel and Bo Nix become Heisman finalists while elevating their NFL draft stock.
Moore would also continue the streak of a transfer winning the award - three straight transfers have won it and five of the last six QBs to win it were transfers.
Best odds: +2000 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 4.76%
Heisman Trophy odds long shot
Caleb Downs Heisman Trophy odds (+18000)
Alright, hear me out, a quarterback or running back won the Heisman every season between 1998 (the year after Charles Woodson won) and 2019. Since 2020, a non-QB/RB has won the award in two of five seasons.
That's a strong reason to take Smith to win the Heisman in 2025, but what about his teammate? Could Caleb Downs follow in Woodson's footsteps as a dominant Big Ten defensive back that wins the Heisman over a future first-round QB? (Woodson beat Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf, and Randy Moss in one of the best Heisman races of all-time.)
This is the definition of a long shot, especially when the only two defenders to win the Heisman have been Woodson, who played some receiver, and Travis Hunter, who was as much a receiver as he was cornerback.
Still, Downs is arguably the best returning player in college football and plays for a Buckeyes team that's the favorite to repeat as champions. He's as good as it gets on defense and he accounted for 85 tackles, 21 run stops, 10 coverage stops, 8 TFLs, four forced incompletions, two interceptions, and allowed a 52.6 NFL QB rating last season.
The Alabama transfer also happens to be a dynamic punt return, much like Woodson was when he won the award at Michigan. It's likely Downs would need to moonlight on offense to win it given Ndamukong Suh was snubbed in 2009 for solely being a defensive player. But if Downs did win, a $10 bet would pay a $1,800 profit.
Best odds: +18000 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 0.55%
Will Arch Manning win the Heisman Trophy?
Arch Manning Heisman Trophy odds (+950)
The biggest thing working in Manning's favor is how narrative-driven the Heisman Trophy tends to be. Last season, Hunter won because he did something we've essentially not seen in decades as a full-time two-way player, but it didn't hurt his case that Deion Sanders had Colorado among the most talked about teams in the nation.
Manning is going to be the most covered player in college football next season because of who his uncles are, the fact that he plays at Texas, and because the Longhorns are one of the championship favorites. It doesn't hurt that the former No. 1 recruit also shined in a handful of games when Quinn Ewers got hurt.
While it was a small sample size, Manning's athleticism really popped, and it led to Steve Sarkisian even using him as a wildcat QB late in the season. That mobility could be an asset to his Heisman push given the last two Heisman-winning QBs, Daniels and Caleb Williams, were X-factors on the move.
Obviously, it's difficult to take too much away from those three games because they were against UTSA, Louisiana-Monroe, and Mississippi State, but you could see the mechanics, arm talent, and athleticism of a future star. That's part of the reason why I'd rather take Manning than Nussmeier and Iamaleava.
Having said that, I don't like backing any of the five quarterbacks that have odds of +1100 or shorter right now. I'd hold off on betting Manning until we're closer to the season and have a better idea of what the Longhorns' starting lineup will look like in 2025.
Best odds: +950 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 9.52%
Heisman Trophy odds 2025
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