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College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Week 7: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 9, 2024 9:14 AM EDT • 3 min 34 sec read.

Arizona State receiver Melquan Stovall breaks down the sideline as we offer our college football Week 7 upset picks.
Arizona State receiver Melquan Stovall breaks down the sideline past Kansas cornerback Cobee Bryant. Photo by Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A week after four AP top-10 teams lost, college football underdogs will again be looking to bark on a loaded Week 7 slate.

  • After defeating the No. 2 team, former college football championship odds favorite Alabama became the fourth No. 1 team to lose to an unranked opponent
  • Six AP top 25 teams lost to unranked opponents last week
  • One of the bigger upsets of the season happened in the Sun Belt, with James Madison losing as 16.5-point favorites to UL Monroe

Our college football upset picks, part of our Week 7 college football predictions, fade an AP top-25 team with quarterback issues on the road and expect a Big Ten team to build off a big win over a top-10 team from last week.

We also highlight a few favorites that we like this weekend as part of our college football Week 7 picks against the spread.

College football upset picks: Week 7

College football odds as of Wednesday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Week 7 upset predictions

College football picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Arizona State (+205) ⭐⭐⭐

The biggest question surrounding this game is whether or not Utah’s starting quarterback Cam Rising is finally cleared to play after dislocating a finger on his throwing hand in Week 2.

Rising has warmed up in full uniform for the last three weeks. Backup Isaac Wilson has completed just 55.7% of his passes and has thrown more interceptions (seven) than touchdown passes (six).

Utah was considered the heavy favorite to win the Big 12 before losing by 13 points at home to Arizona before the bye week. Arizona State has improved greatly in the second year under head coach Kenny Dillingham, and it is also a solid home underdog built to play in Tempe’s heat, unlike Kansas, which wore down in the fourth quarter last week.

Arizona State’s implied probability of pulling off the upset is as high as 34.72% based on FanDuel’s +188 odds. However, I am headed to DraftKings, where my $10 winning wager would net $20.50 in profits.

Best odds: +205 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 32.79%

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Washington (+120) ⭐⭐⭐

Ohio State exposed Iowa’s lack of offensive creativity in last week's 35-7 road loss. While Washington is not a highly ranked team, the Hawkeyes’ 0-8 record and average score margin of 34-9 in their last eight games against top-10 opponents are concerning.

Washington figures to have an easy prep for this game, as its last two opponents (Rutgers and Michigan) play a similar ground-and-pound style as Iowa.

The Huskies are a different team away from home, where they have the second-longest home winning streak in school history (18 games).

But holding Michigan’s Kalel Mullings to 49 yards and 3.5 yards per carry bodes well for the Huskies’ chances of slowing down Kalen Johnson, the Big Ten’s leading rusher with 771 rushing yards.

BetMGM is one of the only sportsbooks that offers higher than +118 odds to back the underdog Huskies.

Best odds: +120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 45.45%

Northern Illinois (+130) ⭐⭐⭐

It seems like ages ago that Northern Illinois scored the season’s biggest upset as 28.5-point underdogs at Notre Dame. It has gone just 1-2 since.

However, the Huskies hung in against NC State, losing 24-17 on the road, and it should be a tough test against a Bowling Green team that put a scare into two AP top-25 opponents (Penn State and Texas A&M).

Northern Illinois’s season looks much worse after an overtime loss to Buffalo, but the Huskies nearly doubled the Bulls’ offensive output (359-184), possessed the ball for over 12 minutes more, and converted 15 more first downs in the game.

Without that loss, the Huskies might be road favorites, and I do not trust a Bowling Green rushing attack that was held under 100 rushing yards in back-to-back games before running for 118 against Akron.

The Falcons averaged just 3.3 yards per carry in that game, while Akron entered allowing 209.6 rushing yards per game.

None of our other best sports betting sites offers better than +120 odds to back the underdogs, so those expecting a Northern Illinois upset should head to Caesars for the extra value on the moneyline.

Best odds: +130 via Caesars | Implied probability: 43.48%

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”