Penn State vs. Oregon Prediction & Picks: Big Ten Championship
The Oregon Ducks will look to remain undefeated when they take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Big Ten Championship.
Making the best Penn State vs. Oregon prediction is tough, considering how well both teams have played this season. Both teams nearly slipped up toward the end of the year, but they each found a way to win one-score games to secure their place in the Big Ten Championship.
Eight of the Nittany Lions’ 11 wins were by double digits, while the Ducks won nine of their 12 games by at least 10. The Ducks are favored by 3.5, but do they truly have the advantage in Saturday’s 8 p.m. ET (CBS) game at Lucas Oil Stadium?
Be sure to check out our Penn State vs. Oregon early leans and picks to see how the perception of this game has changed throughout the week, and that's just a taste of what we're offering bettors with our college football championship week predictions.
Penn State vs. Oregon prediction & best pick
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Penn State +3.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Oregon ⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Jordan James Under 95.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Penn State vs. Oregon ATS prediction: Big Ten Championship
Penn State to cover the spread: +3.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Nittany Lions’ defense keeps it close
Earlier this week, when I took a look at the early Penn State vs. Oregon odds, I predicted that this spread would potentially grow to 4.5. Yet, while 72% of bettors have backed the Ducks to cover as 3.5-point favorites, the spread hasn’t moved at any of the best sports betting sites. Oddsmakers seem confident in the Nittany Lions in this game.
The Nittany Lions have one loss this season, but they gave up only 20 points to an Ohio State Buckeyes team that is averaging 35.5 per game. The Nittany Lions are allowing just 169.8 passing yards per game, and they’re going to at least force a mediocre game from Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
Can Allar keep pace?
Allar has improved significantly since last season, and he is completing 71.6% of his passes this year. He’s also thrown 18 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Though both offenses are averaging over 30 points per game, I expect the defenses to step up in this one. That means a lower-scoring game than usual, which favors Allar and the Nittany Lions.
All of our best sports betting apps have this spread set at 3.5 points. While some sportsbooks are offering -110 for the Nittany Lions to cover, others are asking -115. This signals that despite most of the public backing the Ducks, this spread may actually drop to three points. Therefore, I recommend getting in as soon as possible.
Penn State vs. Oregon best pick
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Jordan James Under 95.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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James has amassed 1,166 yards this season. He has six 100-yard games, and he’s topped 90 in eight of his 12 contests. Additionally, he’s averaging 5.7 yards per carry, implying that he won’t need many carries to hit this number on Saturday.
However, he’s about to face the sixth-ranked run defense in the nation. The Nittany Lions are allowing just 97.2 yards per game this season.
James did run for 115 yards against the Buckeyes earlier this season, which is what’s preventing this from being a five-star play. But the Nittany Lions are allowing just 3.1 yards per carry, and if they can keep this close, I don’t anticipate James getting so many carries that he hits this because of volume alone.
The total is set at 95.5 at each of the best sportsbooks. At this time, they’re all offering nearly identical prices, with FanDuel winning out by the slimmest of margins.
Penn State vs. Oregon odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Penn State vs. Oregon live odds
Penn State vs. Oregon opening odds:
- Penn State: +3.5 (-105)
- Oregon: -3.5 (-115)
Penn State vs. Oregon game info
- When: Saturday, Dec. 7
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Oregon -3.5 (-105 via FanDuel)
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