Texas vs. Michigan Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 2
Our Week 2 college football predictions feature a matchup between the Texas Longhorns and Michigan Wolverines. It's arguably the biggest non-conference college football game of the entire season, and Texas will try to snap Michigan’s 16-game winning streak.
After beating Fresno State 30-10 in the season opener, Michigan improved to 28-0 at home in August and September since 2015. However, my Texas vs. Michigan prediction analyzes whether the Wolverines deserve to be a touchdown underdog in this matchup or if their early-season home winning streak will continue.
The Longhorns are coming off a dominant 52-0 victory over Colorado State, their first season-opening shutout since 2004. Texas is now tied with Oregon for the third-shortest odds (+750 at DraftKings) to win the national title.
Best Texas vs. Michigan picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Spread pick: Texas -7 (-112 via DraftKings) vs. Michigan ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Quinn Ewers Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Texas vs. Michigan spread prediction: Week 2
Texas to cover the spread: -7 (-112) ⭐⭐⭐
Michigan has been a home underdog just once since 2021 (for what it's worth, it won that game outright), but just because it is the defending national champion playing at home does not mean it is the right side by default.
Texas can rely on past road experience
Yes, Michigan Stadium is nicknamed “The Big House”, but there has arguably been no tougher environment to play in recently because of the crowd and the talent on the field than Tuscaloosa.
The Longhorns went into Alabama and beat the Crimson Tide 34-24 last year, as Quinn Ewers’ dynamic passing day (349 yards, three touchdowns) helped overcome the fact that Texas averaged just 2.8 yards per carry. Texas played turnover-free football in a raucous environment. If it can win on the road against an eventual playoff team, it will not be intimidated by this environment in Ann Arbor.
Michigan’s offense is a work in progress
Jim Harbaugh, JJ McCarthy, and Blake Corum are not walking through that door for Michigan. The Wolverines may have a quarterback controversy on their hands, as Davis Warren threw for just 118 yards and had an interception after earning the surprise start over Alex Orji.
One of Michigan’s three touchdowns came directly off a pick-six, and another touchdown drive covered just 31 yards after a Zeke Berry interception set the offense up in great field position.
Given that Donovan Edwards ran for just 2.5 yards per carry and that the Longhorns defense held Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi to just 59 passing yards last week (he threw for over 3,400 yards last year) does not bode well for Michigan’s chances of offensive success in this matchup.
On Thursday, this line lowered from Texas -7.5 to -7, and that is music to my ears considering I would have backed the Longhorns at the higher spread anyway.
While I am tempted to still take Texas -7.5 at FanDuel’s +100 odds, I cannot pass up the significant half-point of value, and DraftKings is the only shop at -7 charging less than -115 in juice. Our Philip Wood included the higher line in his Week 2 college football parlay.
A $10 winning wager would pay out $18.93.
Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.83%
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Texas vs. Michigan player prop
Quinn Ewers Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-104) ⭐⭐⭐
DraftKings has Ewers at -700 odds to throw at least one touchdown pass, but there is a significant drop-off from that number to his -120 odds to throw multiple touchdowns, as oddsmakers are tipping their hands that one passing touchdown could be his ceiling.
Ewers faced five ranked teams last year, including the playoffs, and threw just one touchdown in three of those games. His six games of 300+ passing yards last year tied Colt McCoy’s school record set in 2008.
However, with the game having a low point total (the O/U has lowered from 44.5 to 42.5), I expect Texas not to feel compelled to throw the ball all over the field, especially if its run defense limits Michigan's ground game. That unit ranked in the top five in the country in yards per game allowed (82.4), yards per rush (2.9), and rushing touchdowns allowed (nine) last season.
This is a three-star play, as Ewers' O/U for passing yards is 235.5, and he threw one or zero touchdowns in five of the 10 games since 2022 when passing for 235 or fewer yards.
Ewers’ Under odds are juiced as high as -121 at Caesars, so the best return on a $10 wager is at FanDuel, where a win would result in a $19.62 payout.
Our Shane Jackson has more plays for this tilt in his Texas vs. Michigan player props.
Best odds: -104 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.98%
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Texas vs. Michigan odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Texas vs. Michigan game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 7
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Where: Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Mich.)
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 64 degrees, 23% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph NW
- Favorite: Texas (-265 via DraftKings)
College football betting odds pages
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- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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