Aaron Judge vs. Bobby Witt Jr. MVP Odds 2024: The Case For Each Superstar in AL MVP Race

New York Yankees home-run-hitting cyborg Aaron Judge is the runaway favorite by the MLB MVP odds, with an implied probability of roughly 92% that he'll win the award. But is the race a lot closer than the odds suggest?

Judge is putting together a campaign reminiscent of his MVP-winning 2022 season when he mashed 62 homers and slashed .311/.425/.686. He's been almost just as good this year, and that's likely why he's as short as -1150 at our best MLB betting sites to win AL MVP.

However, Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt is putting together an incredible season of his own. Though Witt's numbers aren't as flashy as Judge's, various stats indicate Witt has been just as valuable as Judge.

Despite that, Witt's odds to win MVP are as long as +700, suggesting he has only a 12.5% chance of being crowned the American League's most valuable player.

Do these odds paint an accurate picture of the MVP race, or is it tighter than it appears? Let's look at the case for both superstars to help with your AL MVP MLB picks.

Odds to win AL MVP 2024

MLB odds from our best sports betting apps as of Aug. 9 | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds

Aaron Judge vs. Bobby Witt

Stats as of Aug. 9.

Chicks (and everyone else, really) dig the long ball

Of course, Judge's main advantage over Witt is when it comes to home runs. The Yankees outfielder has hit more taters than anyone else in baseball during the last five seasons, with Los Angeles Dodgers megastar Shohei Ohtani a distant second with 165 to Judge's 188.

Judge broke the AL record for the most homers in a single season in 2022 with 62, which amounted to one every 11.23 plate appearances. He's managing one every 12.43 PAs this season, which would put him around 56 over that same total of 596 PAs from 2022.

For his part, Witt isn't the slugger that Judge is. He hit 30 bombs in 2023 and is projected to finish right around that mark again this year.

It's not due to a lack of hard contact, though, as Witt ranks in the 94th percentile in average exit velocity, 91st percentile in hard-hit rate, and 98th percentile in max exit velocity. Witt is just more of a line-drive hitter, as evidenced by his league-best .329 xBA.

So, will Judge's 50-plus homers be too much to overcome?

Speed kills, defense matters

Well, they certainly will be if you're one of the many people who discredit Witt's baserunning and defensive value.

As you can see by the above chart, when you factor in batting, baserunning, and fielding run value via Statcast's metrics, Judge sits at 64 while Witt is at a nearly identical 63.

Witt ranks second in baseball with a 16.3 defensive rating, and his eight defensive runs saved rank as the eighth-most in the league.

Meanwhile, Judge does appear to have experienced a slight decline on defense during the last couple of years, as he's managed minus-three DRS this season after minus-four last year. That follows multiple campaigns in which he was among the best outfielders in the league.

Additionally, Witt's status as the fastest man in baseball provides a ton of value. He's stolen the seventh-most bases in MLB this year, and he ranks 14th by FanGraphs' baserunning value tool.

Fans may not like it, but Witt's superior defense and ability to cause havoc on the base paths are big reasons why these two are much closer in WAR than those who value only the long ball would like to admit.

Relative value

In my opinion, we've strayed too far from the value aspect of MVP. People don't like that the NFL MVP Award is essentially the "Best Quarterback Award," but guess what, the quarterback is the most valuable player in football.

So, let's look at who's been the most valuable player this season, relative to the rest of their team:

Judge's relative value

Yankees hitters lead baseball this season with 25.9 fWAR, thanks in large part to Judge and fellow superstar outfielder Juan Soto. Judge has accounted for 7.8 of those 25.9 wins above replacement or roughly 30%.

Soto has been New York's second-most valuable hitter at 6.8 fWAR, with shortstop Anthony Volpe (3.5) and rookie catcher Austin Wells (2.6) serving as other crucial members of the team.

Witt's relative value

Meanwhile, the Royals are down in 13th with 15.9 fWAR, and Witt is responsible for 8.1. I think you see where this is heading.

Witt has, therefore, accounted for just more than half of Kansas City's wins above replacement on offense. The second-most valuable member of the team is 34-year-old catcher/DH/first baseman Salvador Perez at 2.3, with fellow catcher/DH Freddy Fermin coming in third with 1.7.

Where would each team be without them?

It's easy to simply say the Yankees would be nothing without Judge, but they'd still have the third-best player in baseball (by fWAR) in Soto, as well as multiple other quality players and a plethora of young outfield talent in the minors.

If you take away Judge's 7.8 WAR, the Yankees would still be in the top 10 on the team leaderboard. They'd also likely still be among the top World Series odds contenders.

If the Royals didn't have Bobby Witt this year, they'd be sandwiched between the 48-68 Oakland Athletics and 52-64 Washington Nationals. 

What can we expect for the rest of the season?

All signs point to both men continuing their outrageous play throughout the final stretch of the season.

Projections as of Aug. 9.

Judge is projected to finish strong with 55 homers to go along with 138 RBIs. Meanwhile, Steamer projects Witt to go 30-30, with exactly 30 long balls and 36 stolen bases.

So, will Witt's numbers be eye-popping enough for voters to dig a little deeper? Or will they write him off in favor of the homer-hitting prowess of Judge?

What's the bet?

Well, for starters, I would bet on Witt at +700 before I'd consider betting on "The Field" at +650 via bet365. With Gunnar Henderson forgetting how to play baseball for most of July and Soto very unlikely to outdo his teammate, Witt is the field.

I have two separate bets on Witt to win AL MVP this year, first from May 22 at +380 when I placed a unit on each of him and Ohtani (at least I got CLV with one of them), and again on July 16 when I used a free bet to hit his +2000 odds.

At +700, I think the shortstop is still worth a shot, even if it is only half a unit. You could profit $35 off a $5 wager on the player who, on Aug. 9, leads baseball in fWAR. You've certainly spent $5 on worse things.

Bet $5 and Get $150 in Bonus Bets Guaranteed*

*Deposit required. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Claim Now

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

As far as Judge, you're not going to bet him at -1000, and I doubt his odds ever get long enough this season to justify backing him. Therefore, if you missed the boat on the Yankees slugger, my best advice would be for you to head to your favorite social media platform and begin spreading Witt MVP propaganda.

If you're curious about another hotly contested and widely discussed MLB futures market, check out my feature on whether Paul Skenes can actually win the NL Cy Young Award.

MLB betting odds pages

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBR1550 | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Related pages

• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)