Juan Soto Next Team Odds & Contract Projection: Mets Sign Superstar to Historic Contract
The Juan Soto free-agent saga was, thankfully, relatively quick (though not exactly painless for fans of teams considered contenders). The New York Mets signed the superstar to the most lucrative contract in MLB history.
As you can see by the oddsboard just before Soto signed, the Mets were considered the co-favorites with the New York Yankees, so the move wasn't a huge surprise.
It was reported that all remaining teams in contention were offering upward of $600 million, and, oh boy, were they ever. Soto signed a 15-year, $765-million deal with the Mets.
Here is a look back at our Juan Soto next team odds, free-agency predictions, and contract projection for the All-Star slugger.
MLB free agency: Juan Soto next team odds
Juan Soto next team odds as of Dec. 5.
| Team | Odds | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | -120 | 54.55% | $8.33 |
| Yankees | -120 | 54.55% | $8.33 |
| Red Sox | +250 | 28.57% | $25 |
| Blue Jays | +700 | 12.50% | $70 |
| Dodgers | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
Favorites to sign Juan Soto in MLB free agency
Mets (-120)
In the end, the Mets were priced appropriately just before the signing as the favorites. And, based on multiple reports, the Yankees were right there with the Mets but didn't quite match their offer (the number flying around for the team from the Bronx was 16 years, $760 million).
There hasn't been much concrete reporting regarding what the Boston Red Sox or Toronto Blue Jays (No. 3 and 4 on the oddsboard) offered, but most believe they were also in the $700-million range.
Soto now makes the Mets true World Series odds contenders, as they shot up to the second-biggest favorites just behind the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Fortunately, the baseball world can rejoice with a sense of relief that the Dodgers didn't add Soto to what's already the most ridiculous team in MLB. However, there are still plenty of free agents they can add.
How much will Juan Soto get paid in MLB free agency?
Soto famously rejected a $440 million extension over 15 years from the Washington Nationals two years ago, and many expected that this next deal would exceed $600 million in total.
In early September, The Athletic predicted a contract of $560 million over 14 years for Soto. That would have matched Aaron Judge's annual salary of $40 million but still fell well short of the 10-year, $700-million previous record deal that Ohtani signed last year.
Others, like ESPN's Karl Ravech, expected Soto to come much closer to Ohtani territory. Of course, it ended up eclipsing every number.
Odds on Juan Soto next contract money
| Total contract amount | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $499M | +950 | 9.52% | $95 |
| $500M+ | -1450 | 93.55% | $0.69 |
| $550M+ | -1150 | 92% | $0.87 |
| $600M+ | -310 | 75.61% | $3.23 |
| $650M+ | -125 | 55.56% | $8 |
| $700M+ | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| $750M+ | +950 | 9.52% | $95 |
| $800M+ | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
According to FanDuel, there was a 92% chance that Soto signed a contract of at least $550 million in free agency and a 75.61% chance that it reached $600 million. It also suggested better than a 50% chance that Soto cleared $650 million.
However, its odds for $750 million or more were +950, meaning that FanDuel believed the probability of Soto signing this deal was below 10%.
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